Martin will help, but is he worth it?

You'll need ESPN Insider to read the whole thing but here's an excerpt from the article.

This might be similar to the errors Miami made with its roster construction last season, when slow, over-the-hill big men led to a bunch of unused centers on the inactive list during the postseason. The Heat learned their lesson and added some young talent to the bench mix this season. The Clippers will use Martin, but signing him is not a very creative move for a team that has a shot at winning its conference. To be fair, Miami reportedly was one of the other contenders to land Martin, as were several other playoff-caliber teams. It seems the collective perception of Martin is askew with the reality.

But, who knows, maybe it'll work out. If it does, it'll be because Martin proves to be an upgrade to the defense. According to 82games.com, the Clippers are a whopping 18.5 points per 100 possessions worse defensively when Jordan is on the bench. They are 5.8 points worse when Griffin sits. It shouldn't be hard for Martin to close those gaps. For all his hard work, the Clippers get torched when Evans is in the game, and now his role should be reduced. Last season in Denver, the Nuggets were 3.7 points better defensively with Martin on the floor.

4 months ago ClipperChuck 24 comments 0 recs |

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seems like the guy is contradicting himself

Signing Martin is a mistake, but he’ll be a big help. Huh?

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by Steve Perrin on Feb 4, 2012 11:13 AM PST reply actions

long term he is right

but short term he isn’t: if there is FA young big available that will play rotation minutes I’m all for it. But then the author might be so nice to point out who is available who fits this profile. The Clips needed to plug a hole in their roster and did so by signing the best player available.

To me it just a rubbish article: take a bit of an offbeat angle (Kenyon signing not that great), throw some stats together. If Kenyon doesn’t work out, the author looks like a genius. Otherwise no-one will remember. Almost Ziller like in his approach.

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"But can't the refs blow the whistle and stop play in certain situations?" Boltsfan21

by BelgianClipper on Feb 4, 2012 11:57 AM PST up reply actions

Exactly

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by Jax on Feb 4, 2012 11:02 PM PST up reply actions

So...

The answer is, yes, he’s worth the risk. And the risk is that the Clips used their mini-midlevel. That’s no risk at all.

by John Raffo on Feb 4, 2012 11:14 AM PST reply actions

And the midlevel's pro-rated as well.

by John Raffo on Feb 4, 2012 11:14 AM PST up reply actions

I don't believe that it is.

I’ve read that the 10th of this month is when exceptions start becoming pro-rated. This is probably one reason why the agents of other players in China were upset with Martin being able to sign early.

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by Lawler 4ever on Feb 4, 2012 11:24 AM PST up reply actions

DTS pays, so doesn't really matter to us

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"But can't the refs blow the whistle and stop play in certain situations?" Boltsfan21

by BelgianClipper on Feb 4, 2012 11:52 AM PST up reply actions

younger me would have laughed at 'DTS pays'

by XXDC2XX on Feb 4, 2012 4:39 PM PST up reply actions

I mean: if it is prorated or not doesn't really matter from a fan perspective

DTS wallet is the only thing that is going to feel the difference

Your capslock is stuck, please buy a new keyboard
"But can't the refs blow the whistle and stop play in certain situations?" Boltsfan21

by BelgianClipper on Feb 4, 2012 9:57 PM PST up reply actions

DTS's wallet isn't too affected by it either

it is probably less that a million. The biggest hit is felt by the players/agents.

by LJ Hann on Feb 5, 2012 11:41 AM PST up reply actions

That's interesting...

Very interesting if you’re one of the other guys.
The tenth is also the day contracts become guaranteed… so I guess it makes some sense.

by John Raffo on Feb 4, 2012 1:16 PM PST up reply actions

I read that too

"Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be." - John Wooden

by Erik O on Feb 4, 2012 1:58 PM PST up reply actions

At the very least, adding Martin turns our bench from bad to average

And didn’t the heat make the finals with over-the-hill big men? I do remember Juwan Howard making some big shots for them in the Bulls series. I see Martin as a guy who can play good enough D, hit some mid-range Js, cut to the basket occasionally (he’s also a pretty good passer btw) and that’s better than what we have now. And a great deal at 1yr 2.5

by cassellmania on Feb 4, 2012 11:15 AM PST reply actions

THIS.

The author acts like the Heat were a middling playoff team held back by their bench last year.

Clippers // Chargers // Rays // Boise State
"The Lakers do win games. But things can change." - Blake Griffin

by 82-0 on Feb 4, 2012 11:47 AM PST up reply actions

I read that article too.

And that is based off a prediction that his takes a steep drop in production. If he comes close to his same numbers we’d be better off. More importantly, if he can be consistent enough where we can see a decline in BG’s minutes then so much the better.

by mustang6944 on Feb 4, 2012 11:15 AM PST reply actions

We all know we are not getting the same KMart of the past

but look at the alternatives we have with the second unit. We are not getting the same Chauncey every nite either but he is a great veteran addition to the team.

"Great Balls Of Fire, Reggie's Back!"

by PV Mike on Feb 4, 2012 11:46 AM PST reply actions

That's all well and good, but...

Brian Cook and Solomon Jones are awful. We’d literally take anyone over them. So K-Mart is a good pickup just based on that.

Clippers // Chargers // Rays // Boise State
"The Lakers do win games. But things can change." - Blake Griffin

by 82-0 on Feb 4, 2012 11:46 AM PST reply actions

from the same author on basketball prospectus

http://basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2051

statheads…

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"But can't the refs blow the whistle and stop play in certain situations?" Boltsfan21

by BelgianClipper on Feb 4, 2012 11:51 AM PST reply actions

Yeah, that's the same article as in ESPN Insider

Only abbreviated.

I agree with the other comments here. How creative can one be when it comes to NBA bigs? At best, the article helps to keep our expectations realistic.

"i know huh........freakin clippers man.....its like a wild ride rooting for this team....gotta love em....(sometimes) lol" In GrIfFin We TrUsT

by SilverClip on Feb 4, 2012 12:43 PM PST up reply actions

Since he admits that KMart will help the Clips and his stats suggest the same

The entire crux of his argument boils down to his assertion that there are (or soon will be) better players out there for whom we could’ve saved the mini-MLE. His currently available list begins and ends with AK47 and Przybilla, but I call bullshit. If AK actually wanted to come back for $2.5MM, someone would’ve inked that deal by now, and we already know Przybilla is choosing between the Heat and Bulls.

So really, it comes down to players who will get bought out by non-contenders later in the season. Will someone become available a month or two from now who might be more useful than an aging KMart? Quite possibly. But would waiting for such an unknown quantity be a smarter move than shoring up one of our weakest spots right now? Highly doubtful, IMO.

All in all, my SCHEISSE projection system values this article at -11 wins above replacement.

Proudly enduring the pain since the days of Bill Walton's foot.
Now living the good life in Lob City, CA.

by boltsfan21 on Feb 4, 2012 1:12 PM PST reply actions

I think most mini-MLE's will be gone by then

then it becomes a recruiting battle for ring chasers. Perhaps something interesting will come our way. But I prefer one Kenyon in the hand …

Your capslock is stuck, please buy a new keyboard
"But can't the refs blow the whistle and stop play in certain situations?" Boltsfan21

by BelgianClipper on Feb 4, 2012 1:22 PM PST up reply actions

The real question is who's better Reggie Evans and Cookie or KMart?

obviously, it’s Kmart.

by andrewexd on Feb 4, 2012 2:17 PM PST reply actions

The article is a mess.

Using advanced metrics to explain the value of a 2.5M acquisition of a veteran big man isn’t gonna make that article less shitty.

The author should’ve stopped here:
" He’s projects to be a better rebounder than Cook, Thompkins and Jones and a superior defender to that trio as well." Then, he goes on to discredit himself by touting Solomon Jones “may carve a niche as a shot blocking specialist.” Uh, no, just no.

by dvnbtn on Feb 4, 2012 3:31 PM PST reply actions