MEGASTAT 2013 - The Halfway Point

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Well, we're exactly halfway through the season (or we were, when I pulled my data), and so I decided to update my MEGASTAT formula.

As you may recall, MEGASTAT is just a simple weighted-average calculation that attempts to gather the three major "single number" advanced stats (PER, Win Shares per 48 minutes, and Wins Produced per 48 minutes) and see where they would rate NBA players, if they each got an equal say. Using the measure of an "average NBA starter" (16.65 PER, .100 WS/48, or .100 WP48), MEGASTAT assigns a percentage. So the perfectly average starter would have 100% MEGASTAT would have 16.65 PER, .100 WS/48, and .100 WP48. Every one of the "experts" behind each of those three advanced stats would agree that player should start on an NBA team.

NOTE: In previous iteration of MEGASTAT, I used 15.00 PER as the mark of an average NBA starter, but I made an error here. 15.00 PER is the mark of an average NBA player, but not necessarily the average starter. For the four years which we are testing, I calculated the weighted-average PER of the 150 players (30 teams, 5 starters) who played the most minutes per game, that were active at least 75% of the season. The end result was approximately 16.65 PER for the average NBA starter.

MEGASTAT


The link above is the resulting database, which you can sort using the little drop-down headers above each column (I included TS% in the database, but it's not part of any calculation). On the far right, we have the 4-year-weighted-average (by minutes played) for each player. This is weighted so that if a player had a great season where he played a lot of minutes, followed by a poor season where he played very few minutes, he will not be dinged much by the poor season (e.g. Kevin Love). The cells with a dash in them are just N/A, so I've filtered them out of the "2013" section. So essentially, this list only shows active players right now (greater than 200 minutes played), but you can clear that filter using the dropdown above 2013 minutes played ("MP") if you want to see everyone who's played the last 4 years.

The conclusions that MEGASTAT came up with are both unsurprising and surprising. In 2013, Chris Paul is the consensus #1 most productive player in the league, at almost 275% of the average NBA starter. Second is Kevin Durant, at 267% of the average starter, and coming in third is LeBron, at 255% of the average starter. Parker, Ginobili, and Duncan are all in the top 17, so they are acting as a super-duper-star by committee. One other thing to note is that, productivity-wise, the advanced stats all agree Andre Drummond is the clear Rookie of the Year.

Anyway, feel free to play with the database and see if you can find anything else. By no means do I consider MEGASTAT to be the end-all be-all of "one number" advanced stats, as it contains all of the flaws of the advanced stats that go into it. Still, it's fun to see what they'd all agree on, if they could stop arguing with each other. And while I often disagree with the conclusions that MEGASTAT comes up with, I'm not going to argue if it says Chris Paul is the best. Because, duh, he is.

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