FanPost

Losing DJ - An Analytic View

Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

Sorry for posting again, but with the loss of DJ I am here to try to bring a glimmer of hope to a sad day (Jordan left for Chandler Parsons' achilles!).


Here is a game of Player X:
Player 1 - 21.9 PPG, 7.6 REB, 5.3 AST, 0.9 STL, 0.5 BLK
Player 2 - 11.7 PPG, 8.2 REB, 3.7 AST, 1.6 STL, 1.3 BLK
Player 3 - 13.9 PPG, 9.1 REB, 3.0 AST, 0.8 STL, 2.0 BLK
Player 4 - 11.5 PPG, 15.0 REB, 0.7 AST, 1.0 STL, 2.2 BLK
Player 5 - 6.3 PPG, 8.1 REB, 2.7 AST, 0.6 STL, 1.7 BLK
Player 6 - 5.2 PPG, 5.3 REB, 0.5 AST, 0.4 STL, 0.8 BLK (16 Mins Per Game)

Hopefully you know that Player 1 is Blake and Player 4 is DJ. Player 2 is Draymond, Player 3 is Duncan, Player 5 is Bogut, Player 6 is Kosta Koufos. What the stats show us is that Blake needs to block the ball more and rebound more - what we need at the centre spot is more passing. In the small ball era of today it is all about having five guys who can score and make plays off the dribble and defend multiple positions and switch multiple times on defence, DeAndre does not have the offence and Bogut does not have the versatility to play against small ball or up tempo basketball and in the finals Bogut was not needed. When the Dubs switched to Draymond at centre they had Iggy off the bench, consider Lance a poor man's Iggy and the Clippers can play small ball now with CP, JJ, Lance, Pierce and Blake. Blake is viewed as a much lesser defender than Draymond - Draymond is better, but lets look in depth at that:

In the NBA the league leaders in Points Per Possession (at least 100 possessions) on defensive post ups goes like this: #1 Blake Griffin (0.61 PPP), #2 LaMarcus Aldridge (0.67 PPP), #3 Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (0.68 PPP), #19 Draymond Green (0.77 PPP) #33 DeAndre Jordan (0.82 PPP).
Points Per Possession (at least 100 Possessions) on defensive isolations: Draymond Green - 0.58 PPP (#1) and Blake Griffin 0.87 PPP (#12/15) - Clearly an advantage to Draymond - but when you factor in DeAndre's 87 defensive isolations - he gave up 0.97 PPP.
Opposing FG% at rim (at least 5 attempts per game) - Draymond Green 46.7%, DeAndre Jordan 48.5%, Blake Griffin 50.7%
Besides guarding pick and rolls (switching) - which is a very communication reliant stat, there is pretty clear evidence that Blake is not as far off Draymond as most might think. The stats also show that perhaps DeAndre's blocks and presence may stop people from noticing some of his defensive problems. It is clear that the 7'0" centre - DeAndre included - is not suited for small ball. Blake actually has the potential to play some small ball, but maybe when our new centre is on the bench or we try to change the pace of a game.

Putting Blake in at centre, could we push the pace, drill 3s, space the floor and outscore teams, whilst switching on defence and just copping the 2.2% at the rim when we want some instant offence, maybe even using this half the time and then putting in a centre for when we dont want to tire out the team.

Something else interesting: The sports VU data showed spme concening things when i looked at the Assist% of FGM for Clipper players; Caution: centres have an inflated rate because they get putbacks and otherwise score minimally - JJ Redick - 91.9%, Matt Barnes - 85.2%, Hawes - 84%, Hedo - 81.9%, Glen Davis 76.1%, MeAndre - 68.9%, Blake - 67.4%, Austin - 47.8%, Jamal - 47.6%, Chris Paul - 19.2%. What this says about our offence is that besides Chris Paul we have no one that is creating for themselves, that may be fine, but not at 75%+. Jamal and Austin are still nearly 50/50, fair for combo guards, but when DeAndre's points are mainly putbacks or alley oops, Blake is doing fine, but for a ball dominant big 50/50 would be better, JJ and Matt were only creating less than 15% of their points it was easy for teams to gang up on CP and leave those two to dry. Blake could cope, but DeAndre also would have struggled.
With our new look team putting Blake at centre, Lance (32.9% of FGs were assisted), Truth (74.4%), JJ and CP on the court together, we now have three players who can create for themselves and another in Paul Pierce that can get a quarter of his buckets on his own or at least create for himself more than most power forwards can when playing as a stretch big. A team with four players that have between 20% and 75% of their field goals being assisted and is what small ball is all about on offence, defence is about versatility. (Warriors: Curry - 44.4%, Livingston - 46%, Ezeli - 63.2%, Bogut - 66%, Klay - 69.6%, Barbosa - 69.9%, Lee - 70.6%, Barnes - 71.2%, Iggy - 72.7%, Draymond - 82.3%). The Clippers can achieve a similar style of small ball on offence (a more aggressive CP would always help) and what now looks more achievable style of play on defence with Blake being a great post defender and only 4 points per 100 shots worse than DJ when protecting the rim.

Closing Thoughts:
Now - please don't shoot me - but, after looking at the stats, Josh Smith seems like a perfect small ball centre. He has the strength to defend the post, he is quick, long, he can defend the rim, he can switch and even pass well. He is cheap too, lets just make sure he does not shoot.

Secondly, I am as disappointed as you all are that we lost DJ - but could it there be a silver lining to it - KD (among many quality players) is a free agent next year, the money we will have - of a projected $89.0M cap we would have around $20-22M to spend - enough to land a star, the following year - of a projected $108.0M cap we would have around $40M to spend. Two star FAs.

Remember - all of this "Blake at centre" business is for when our main centre is on the bench or we are trying to change things up in a game.

Options - Breaking News (Not really): Larry Sanders playing at Drew League, he would be a great rim protector (or Javale?) for our defence and would allow us to space the floor on offence with a pick and roll centre.

Sorry for the length and awkward post time (In Hawaii), comment your thoughts, I hope this was productive and insightful for Clips Nation.

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