It's been a week since the Clippers traded Cat Mobley and Tim Thomas to the Knicks for Zach Randolph and Mardy Collins.  In the interim, while we were waiting out Cat Mobley's heart condiition and wondering if the trade would actually happen, we've had some time to think about his role on the Clippers.

It's not particularly easy to get your head around Z-Bo.  (It's almost as difficult as getting your arms around him.)  Let's go through some of the conventional wisdom about the trade and see where it leads us.

Reasons the trade was good:

• It gives the Clippers a go to scorer in the post.  This is pretty clearly the reason that MDsr pursued Randolph.  A psychology student could probably write a dissertation on this subject: rejected by the 20-10 player he nurtured (and depended on) for years, the coach fervently pursues another 20-10 player.  His point: 20-10 guys don't grow on trees.  The list of names this season is short and impressive: Howard, Duncan, Bosh, Jefferson... and Zach Randolph (although Z-Bo's 7 point game on Wednesday dropped him below 20 ppg for the time being).  The counter-argument: not all 20-10 guys are created equal.  Zach Randolph is clearly not Tim Duncan.  Nonetheless, while Chris Kaman is a good scorer, he's never been, nor is he likely to become, an offensive force.  And all of his talk of playing a more up tempo or perimeter oriented game turned out to be just that:  talk.  MDsr is an inside-out kind of coach, and without a bona fide low post scorer, he's a little lost.  Randolph arguably fits MDsr's offensive system even better than Brand did:  EB is a good isolation score, where Randolph is great.  We've complained plenty around here about the 'all isos all the time' style of basketball - but if we're stuck with it, let's at least give it a chance to work.  In that regard, Randolph is a good fit.
• It makes the Clippers younger.  This is a simple fact.  Although this is his 8th season in the NBA, and he long ago wore out his welcome in Portland, Zach Randolph is a mere 27 years old.  His contract runs through 2011, and is gargantuan, but even at the end he'll only be 29, which is still very much prime time for power forwards.  Mobley is 33 and Thomas is 31, and neither figured into the Clippers' long term plans.  And Mobley's departure cleared the way for Eric Gordon, which is clearly a good thing, particularly if the team is destined to miss the playoffs this season.  The net result of the trade gives the Clippers Baron Davis (29), Eric Gordon (19), Al Thornton (24), Chris Kaman (26) and Randolph (27) through 2011.  There's no question that those five have a lot of talent - but there's no guarantee that the pieces fit together.
  

Reasons the trade was bad:

• The loss of Mobley makes the Clippers dangerously thin on the wings.  There's good news and bad news since the actual trade on this subject.  Part of the problem before the trade was the simple fact that Ricky Davis had been terrible on the season so far.  With the revelation this week that his knee has been hurting, and that he has been by his own estimate "about 60%", there's now a plausible explanation for RD's dismal performance.  By sitting him down, the hope is that he'll be better upon his return in a week or two.  In the interim of course, the Clippers got even thinner on the wings.  But the unmitigated good news is that Eric Gordon appears more than ready to take over the starting position.  In the first two games without Mobley, with Ricky starting and EJ coming off the bench, the Clippers got almost nothing out of the 2.  In two games with Gordon in the starting lineup, he's led the team in scoring both times with 25 and 24.  And while we already had some level of confidence he could score, his defense has been solid as well.  The Clippers still need Ricky Davis healthy and productive - the post-Mobley options for backing up Al Thornton at the small forward, or for defending big shooting guards, are less than ideal. 
• There aren't enough minutes up front for Kaman, Randolph and Camby.  In the first game with Randolph in uniform, this didn't prove to be a problem at all.  That's because Kaman played only 12 minutes before shutting it down to rest his sore foot.  The fact that his foot was sore at least in part due to the number of minutes he'd been playing in the first month of the season, argues for limiting his minutes.  And of course Camby, 35, has been on limited minutes all season, and for the last few seasons of his career.  So it would seem that finding minutes for all three of the bigs is not really going to be an issue.  Limiting the minutes of the injury-prone guys is a good thing, and there will be plenty of opportunity to milk the guy with the hot hand.
• There isn't enough room up front for Kaman, Randolph and Camby.  The jury is definitely out on this one.  Of course, this was already a potential problem for the Clippers, even before the trade.  Most of us in Clips Nation have been convinced Kaman and Camby have co-existed and even thrived - though unfortunately their supposed synergy has not resulted in many wins.  Adding Randolph into that mix is definitely a potential problem.  It certainly didn't work to have Randolph and Curry together in New York. 
• Randolph's contract takes away cap flexibility for summer 2010.  This is an indisputable fact.  We'll never know what it costs the Clippers - no one can know what would have happened with the cap space.  But barring another move, the Clippers will not have enough cap space to make a play for any of the superstar free agents of summer 2010.
• Randolph is good at putting up stats, but bad at helping teams win.  This is the big question.  The answer will come on the court.
  

The first game of the Zach Randolph era in LA didn't do much to settle the questions.  If he's going to go 3 for 11 every game, then it's not going to work out.  But it's safe to say he's not going to go 3 for 11 every game.  (Of course, that's what we said about Ricky Davis, and so far Ricky has proven that thinking wrong.)  Hopefully we'll get more feedback tonight against the Heat.

The simple fact is, the Clippers were 2-9 when they made the trade, so they didn't have much to lose.  And while Randolph's contract pretty clearly falls into the 'bad' category, trading two medium bad contracts for one really bad contract is pretty much a contractual wash, especially when the team gets younger in the process.  That leaves 2010 as the financial downside to this deal, and as I pointed out in an earlier post, the Clippers are gaining a trade chip into 2011 as they lose cap space in 2010, so it may not be as bad as it seems.

Ultimately this trade will be judged on its basketball merits.  Does Randolph make the team more competitive?  Does he make them competitive enough?  Maybe not this season, which is probably already lost (a situation that cannot be blamed on Z-Bo), but next season?  Or is he more trouble than he's worth?  A guy who can put up numbers, but whose liabilities on defense and in the locker room cancel out his assets?

In Woody Allen's Manhattan, Isaac's first wife, played by a very young Meryl Streep, leaves him for another woman.  When someone asks him why he married a lesbian, he says "I thought I could change her."  Can MDsr change Zach Randolph?

I can't get my head around that one.

The details, according to Ramona Shelburne, are more or less as we suspected.  Cuttino Mobley and Tim Thomas to the Knicks in exchange for Zach Randolph and Mardy Collins.

When you begin the season 1-9 and are scoring 90 points a game, it's not unusual to make a move.  It's what most franchises would do, and frankly, there's a part of me that's very happy that the Clippers were unwilling to accept their slow start.  You don't want to panic, but as a long time Citizen of Clips Nation, panic is preferable to their usual ineffectual complacency.

Having said that, I think that the trade value would only have increased for Mobley and Thomas as 2010 got closer.  And I'm just not sold that the team got maximum value in this deal.  I was pretty convinced that the Knicks were going to have to package the guy with a pick or an asset like David Lee to get rid of him.  They said over the summer that they thought they could raise his value by showcasing him in D'Antoni's offense.  If that was their plan, it worked perfectly, with the Clippers playing the part of 'yokel rube.'

Zach Randolph is a statistical monster.  But he's never been a winner.  Of course, Elton Brand's never been a winner either.  EB managed to miss the playoffs every year but one, but he was a nice guy, volunteering in the community and making movies in the off season.  Z-Bo spent most of his time volunteering in strip clubs. 

Here's what's really interesting: the Clippers now have four players on their roster that have, at one point or another, put up all star worthy numbers.  In addition to those four, they have second year player Al Thornton and rookie Eric Gordon who both appear to have star potential.  There's no lack of talent on the roster. 

Obviously we were concerned about chemistry before.  There are two ways to look at this trade in that context.  Maybe it makes the chemistry experiment all the more likely to blow up in the test tube.  Or maybe the situation was already so volatile, that  it doesn't much matter that were tossing in another radioactive element.  Only time will tell on that one.

Mardy Collins?  They guy who laid out JR Smith setting off the Knicks-Nuggets brawl?  Really?  Why is he in this deal?

Last thought:  bearing in mind, as Citizen John R has always pointed out, that mega super stars (like LeBron James or Dwyane Wade or Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire) are unlikely to sign with the Clippers - partly because of their reputation, deserved or not, partly because they are unlikely to look much like a title contender as soon as 2010 - maybe this isn't such a bad idea, even from a forward looking standpoint.  Before, you had Thomas, Mobley, Camby, Ricky all expiring in 2010 - you get a ton of cap space, but can you use it?  Now, you still have Camby and Ricky (combined $13M in salary) expiring in 2010, and Z-Bo ($17M... ouch, that hurt just typing it) expiring the next year.  Basically, you've got major trade chips for a year longer.

What an interesting morning of Clipper-related stuff.  Glad I don't have a job.  Or a term paper due.  (Except that I do have a term paper due.)

As you know, I usually like to have a game preview by this time.  Of course, there aren't many Citizens out there who need a game preview for this one.  It's not like you're sitting there wondering, 'The Sixers... hmm... now who plays for them again?"  At any rate, between my Brand post last night, and some of the stuff going on this morning, I may not get to the preview for a while yet.  Just keeping up with the comments on Clips Nation is pretty full time right now.

So about that other stuff going on.

You should read Lisa Dillman's story in the LA Times about tonight's meeting with Brand.  What's interesting is that, while Baron Davis has always maintained that it was no big deal and that there were no hard feelings about Brand's departure, it does not come across that way at all.  "The mention of Brand quickly wiped away Davis' smile.... Davis hasn't spoken to Brand, and said he doesn't plan to do so.... 'I've got nothing to say to him.'"

And you absolutely MUST read Ramona Shelburne's blog posts recapping l'affaire Brand.  It's in two parts, here and here.  It's an excellent overview of the key events and motivators.  You should also read my comment on the second part (for some reason it's from Anonymous instead of ClipperSteve).  I think the cap situation is slightly misrepresented in the story.  I'm going to try to find the time and the energy to do a full post about this.  Again.

And then there's that trade rumor.

From Alan Hahn's Newsday blog:

The Knicks, Warriors and Clippers are talking about a three-way deal that would involve Jamal Crawford, Zach Randolph and Mardy Collins being sent in a cap-space clearing move that would bring in Tim Thomas, Cuttino Mobley and Al Harrington.

A hat tip to Blazer fan bedhead on this one.  I can't say Citizen bedhead - he was here on a visa.

At any rate, before I got around to posting on this, Ric Bucher on ESPN.com reported that the rumor was half true:  Harrington for Crawford is a done deal and will be finalized soon.

So what about Tim Thomas and Cat Mobley for Zach Randolph?  Well, here's what we can say about that.

First of all, it works under the cap, so there's nothing that precludes such a deal.

Secondly, the Clippers started the season 1-9 and are currently 2-9.  I'd say there's ample reason to be looking at changing things up, wouldn't you?

But the Newsday report was suspicious from the git-go.  Why is this a three team deal?  If Harrington for Crawford works as a standalone trade, and Thomas/Mobley for Randolph works as a standalone trade, then why complicate matters?  A little salary cap tip - when a third team enters into a trade scenario, it is usually because that team has cap space, and therefore is not bound by the same salary matching rules as the other teams.  It is very rare that three teams over the cap can complete a three way deal that can't be completed separately.  (It's not impossible, as the fudge factors on salary matching can be used to make a deal work that would not work standalone - but it's very rare.)

So it seems like some things were conflated this morning.  Obviously it was reported as a three team deal when it turned out not to be, and indeed never had to be.  Furthermore, there was an immediacy and 'realness' to the rumor that was totally justified - for Harrington-Crawford.  But that immediacy got transferred to a separate Knicks-Clippers discussion, that probably was a lot less serious.

By the way, the self same Newsday blog as much as admits that the Clippers portion of the rumor just wasn't right in a later post:

HOWEVER....the Clippers-Zach Randolph scenario we mentioned in the previous blog might not come to fruition.

Hey, that's why we call them rumors.

Change 'might not' to 'will not' and I think we're all set.

Why does this keep coming up?  We know that Thomas and Mobley don't really figure into the Clippers long term plans.  Cat's keeping the seat warm for Eric Gordon (though he's clearly the starter right now) and Thomas has never been a favorite of Clips Nation.  Both have contracts expiring in 2010, making them very attractive to the Knicks as they work to get into the LeBron/Wade/Bosh derby.  (By the way, when Oklahoma City or Memphis or even the Clippers talk about clearing cap space to try to sign a big time free agent, take it with a whole shaker of salt.  Do big time free agents want to play for those teams?  But New York City, Madison Square Garden, Mike D'Antoni, run and fun?  I'm not saying the Knicks get whoever they want in 2010 - but someone will take their money.  That's guaranteed.  So yeah, they are smart to play this particular game.)

We know that MDsr already pursued Z-Bo this summer.  Does he have an affiinty for the guy?  Or does the rumor keep coming up because, hey, he's available?  I wondered if maybe MDsr coached Randolph at Portland, and had some sort of attachment to the guy, like bringing in Vin Baker.  But as it happens, MDsr left Portland the year before Randolph arrived.  Maybe he watched the guy develop with a little more interest since it was his former team.  After all, Randolph quickly made Rasheed Wallace expendable in Portland and MDsr did coach Sheed.  Who knows what the perceived attraction is?

The rumor this summer was that the Clippers were trying to acquire Randolph in a Camby-like deal - giving up nothing but cap space - and that they wanted the Knicks to throw in a pick to sweeten the pot.  So I'll say again what I said when the Kaman rumor surfaced - why would they give up significantly more now?  No, Mobley and Thomas don't figure into the long term plans.  But Mobley is clearly the starting shooting guard right now, and the way Ricky Davis is playing, it would be a pretty big hole to lose Cat for the rest of the season.  As much as I love Eric Gordon, the combination of factors doesn't make sense.  Do they want Zach Randolph in order to compete now?  Well, you don't start a 19 year old if you are planning to compete now.  So you can keep Thomas and Mobley and start Gordon while you're building for the future when you have 2010 cap space.  But you don't make a move to compete now and in so doing decimate your backcourt.

If the Clippers are going to send all that cap space to the Knicks, they're going to get more than Zach Randolph.  Picks, David Lee... something.

But I think what we really have here is a non-trade.  It seemed like a trade because it got mixed up with some serious Knicks-Warriors trade talk.  But it's not happening.

UPDATE:  In classic ClipperSteve fashion (forget about Baron Davis,Elton Brand isn't going anywhere, Allen Iverson to the Clippers) I posted this at 11:55 and at 12:06 Ramona posted from a source that this trade is 'very real, and very close to going down.'  Poop.  Why do you guys read this blog?  I'm pretty much always wrong.  I really hope that if it happens, it involves the Clippers getting more than Zach Randolph.  I don't think that helps the team enough.  Not when both the current starting shooting guard and the future cap space are going away.

Given the significant and growing buzz surrounding Zach Randolph’s candidacy to become the next starting power forward for your Los Angeles Clippers, it may be fun to take a walk together through the internet to see what we can see. We all have our opinions, including my own first blush statement of "yuck", but let’s get out there to the wide world wide web of sports. The point here is to share some of the websites I find useful and/or interesting, much more than personally breaking down Zachary. I'm hoping that doesn’t actually become necessary, and if it does that’s a definitely a job for ClipperSteve anyway.

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