The Magnificent Seven
I don't want to get too far ahead of myself here. The Clippers have looked AWFUL against the good teams, that much is certain. But, look at the Nov/Dec schedule versus the Jan/Feb schedule.
There are seven teams in the Western Conference that are arguably the best seven teams in the NBA thus far this season. It's not just that they are hogging all but one of the 8 playoff spots - all seven can make a case based on their performance so far that they have a legitimate shot at the NBA title. There's no question that any one of them would be favored to win the East. I call these teams (the Mavs, Spurs, Suns, Jazz, Lakers, Rockets and Nuggets) the Magnificent Seven (M7). I guess if they were from the Eastern Conference I'd have to call them the Seven Samurai.

Of the M7, only Denver is currently below .600 in winning percentage, having lost 3 of their last 5 without their suspended leading scorers. And of course no one has seen the Nuggets with Carmelo and Iverson together, but Stan Kronke is betting about $30M that they can win a title. Likewise the Lakers and Rockets are currently dealing with major injuries, but continue to win enough games to frighten the rest of the league at the prospect of a fully healthy squad. As for the Mavs, Suns, Spurs and Jazz - they've all got winning percentages above .700, each compiling gaudy win streaks along the way: Suns 15 straight, Mavs 10 straight, Jazz 14 of 15, Spurs 9 of 10 TWICE.
In the first two months of the season, the Clippers have played the M7 15 times. That's half of their first 30 games. They were a pathetic 4-11 in those 15 games, with 3 wins coming in the first week of the season and the fourth against Houston playing without TMac and Yao. In short, they have not been good against the good teams. Not at all.
But, that also means they've done well in their other 15 games. Their record against the rest of the league so far is 10-5.
I'm a big believer in the RPI in college basketball, but tend to ignore it in the NBA since the schedule eventually evens out, and RPI doesn't end up mattering anyway. However, the Clippers strength of schedule so far is the second toughest in the league, and their RPI puts them in the thick of the fight for the 7th and 8th playoff spots. (Note that the RPI also validates the M7 - the top 6 teams are from the Western Conference, with Denver falling to 18, but of course we haven't really seen scary Denver yet.)
In the coming two months, comprising 27 games, they face the M7 exactly once (Phoenix, Feb 20). Funny how the schedule tends to even out. Of course they do have to play what passes for decent Eastern Conference teams (2 against Cleveland, at Detroit, at Washington, at Miami, at Orlando and home against Chicago), but I'd take those over the Western monsters any day.
They also have 3 games against the Warriors during Jan/Feb. They haven't played the Warriors yet this year, and swept them last year but have won 7 of their last 8 meetings with the Warriors. Golden State currently holds the 8th playoff spot in the West, so beating them head-to-head is crucial.
Of course, 15 of the 27 games are on the road, where the Clippers are currently 2-10. But with 7 of those 10 losses against the M7, you can argue that those were not very winnable games. The point is, there's an opportunity in these two months to feel a lot better about ourselves. Let's face facts - a 4-2 trip here at the beginning of January is entirely within reason, and the team would come back home on Jan. 13 at .500 overall, and more importantly with 6 road wins to even out those 6 home losses.
And now the bad news - 10 of the final 23 games are against the M7. Funny how the schedule tends to even out. That's life in the Western Conference. No matter what happens, once of these teams is waiting in the first round, if the Clippers do make the playoffs. If Jan/Feb goes well, Mar/Apr will be the time to find out if the Clippers are simply the 8th best team in a very good conference, destined for a first round drubbing, or if they can actually compete a little. If they can manage some wins, and in particular some road wins, against the M7 in the spring, then there will be some reason to hope going into the playoffs.
But, I may be getting a little ahead of myself.
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It has to be a source....
And why this demotion? Is it management, coaching, ownership?
My feeling is that it's too early in the season to say who rules the roost. If the Clippers didn't feel they had a team that could compete with the elite of the Western conference, why did they stand pat and not try to make the necessary moves to become one of those teams? I think the jury is still out.
Remember last year when ask if the Clips were competing with the Lakers, Elton Brand said something to the effect that "we've already proved we can beat the Lakers. We have bigger fish to fry." Let's hope that that kind of "swagger" is back.
by saxmanager on Jan 2, 2007 10:09 AM PST 0 recs
Frustration?
How are they doing it? I really don't know. I will say that I always thought Phil Jackson was overrated - you know, winning titles with MJ and winning titles with Shaq and Kobe. Big deal. Make me the coach, and I'll win too. I can roll the ball onto the court with the best of them. Well, not anymore. In the words of Mickey Dolenz, I'm a believer.
Certainly of the M7, the Lakers are the ones that surprise me the most, more even than the Jazz. The Rockets and the Nuggets may struggle with injuries and suspensions and getting everyone on the same page, but there's no mistaking the talent when everyone is there. And the Spurs, Mavs and Suns are just plain better. But the Lakers are more or less the same team that barely made the playoffs last season. It's not like VladRad has been the difference so far, or even Bynum.
Yet here they are - yes the schedule has been soft and home-friendly. But they are 6-7 on the road, and 6-5 without Odom. I don't get it, but they are playing like one of the best teams in the league.
Going into the season, I certainly thought the Clippers had 4 seed potential. Any higher than that was hoping for Amare to stay hurt, or Duncan to be done, or Dallas 06 to have been a fluke, and obviously none of that happened. And everyone knew that a healthy Houston was a solid playoff team, and now you've got AI in Denver.
Utah is showing signs of coming back to earth, but I really like that team (picked them to win that division).
I'm not saying the Clippers can't insert themselves into the conversation. The simple fact is, these 7 are looking like they are going to make the playoffs, leaving 1 spot. And the Clippers have played half their games so far against them, which is pretty astounding. Can the Clippers climb to 5 or even 4, at least avoiding the 'Big 3' in the first round? Of course they can, because there's lots of basketball left.
But I'll settle for passing up the Lakers.
by ClipperSteve on
Jan 2, 2007 11:22 AM PST
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Good stuff Steve
The Clippers will probably squeak into the playoffs and face a tough opponent. You have to win your division. (I think the notion of conferences and divisions is silly, as evidenced by the disparity between West and East, AFC and NFC, American and National league). Wouldn't you all rather see a Mavs/Spurs Finals than a Mavs/Bulls finals? The playoffs should be top 16 teams.
The Lakers have played the East a lot. But they are an example of a well coached team.
By the way, I never thought that the Clippers were that much better than the Lakers last year. I think we would have beat them in a second round matchup, but our records were similar, and we were 2-2.
The notion that the Clippers were elite last year is wrong. We had a nice regular season, got a favorable playoff matchup, and went seven games with a beat up Phoenix team, same as the Lakers.
I figured by that by virtue of young players improving, the Clippers would be better this year. Hasn't turned out that way (in fact, some players regressed).
Clippers were six games over .500 last year, and figure to be near .500 this year, save for a key personell change, or a rapid improvement.
by mp on Jan 2, 2007 10:39 AM PST 0 recs
Good Catch
by ClipperSteve on
Jan 2, 2007 2:31 PM PST
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either way
But I do specifically remember a lot of games, especially in the Dunleavy era, where I have seen virtually every play of every game.
For instance, I remember the last two games at Orlando. Last year was Mobley vs. Francis (best friends, perhaps lovers?), and the year before, Livingston suffered his second major injury of his rookie year (shoulder).
Just kidding about Cat, by the way, though my wife, whose gay-dar is unmatched, gets the vibe.
by mp on
Jan 2, 2007 4:08 PM PST
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Metrosexual
But if you wife's gay-dar is so good, why is she married to you?
Thank you. I'll be here all week.
by ClipperSteve on Jan 2, 2007 5:34 PM PST 0 recs






