The Maggette-dendum
by ClipperSteve
on Oct 9, 2007 5:30 PM PDT
in News
I've been thinking about Corey Maggette's situation a lot lately. No, it's not going to be another Maggette-festo, but there's enough going on here to rant for awhile. Call it the Maggette-dendum.
If you've got a couple hours, you can review the Maggette-festo for a recap of the last few years. But suffice it to say, none of us thought that Corey Maggette would be a Clipper after last February's trade deadline, yet here he is, expected to be the number one option on offense in the absence of Elton Brand. Of course, it wasn't that long ago that Maggette led the Clippers in scoring, even with a healthy Brand on the roster.
To have Ralph Lawler mentioning Corey as a potential all star seems incongruous, given the fact that Ralph has not been Maggette's biggest supporter the last several years. But the simple fact remains - Corey has averaged over 20 points a game as a starter for basically four seasons now, he's going to be a starter this year, and he's certainly going to get more touches with Brand gone. And before we devolve into the 'anyone can score 20 points a game' argument, let's bear in mind that Corey is NOT your typical 'shoot enough and the points will come' scorer. Because of his propensity for getting to the free throw line (and converting once he's there) his effective shooting percentage has been incredibly consistent for the past 4 seasons (.583 in 06-07, .581, .574 and .586 in the seasons prior) and is always among the league leaders. His eFG% is in fact higher than Brand's and was the same as Dwyane Wade's last season. He may be out of control at times, but he's not a classic 'chucker.' The man finished close to 17 points per game last season, despite the limited minutes and unlimited distractions. Is 23 or 24 points per game really out of the question? Scoring may be overrated, but the 10 players that averaged 24+ ppg last season all made the all star team.
And yet, it remains unclear whether Maggette fits into the Clippers long term plans. For most of last season, the assumption was that he did not fit at all. During Allen Iverson trade talks, MDsr pointedly stated that only Brand, Kaman and Livingston were untouchable. Since that time, the signals have been decidedly mixed. Donald Sterling loves Maggette (the longest tenured Clipper, an athlete who puts fans in seats, and a hard worker) - shares in CMLAC are up.
MDsr is less enthusiastic, yet totally changed his approach to Corey the final two months of last season - stock closes unchanged. Clippers choose an athletic small forward with the 14th pick in the June draft - CMLAC stock declines. Elton Brand is hurt - it's back up. Clippers offer the maximum extension allowed under the Collective Bargaining Agreement - the stock is through the roof. Corey turns it down, preferring to become a free agent after this season - nobody knows what it means.
About that extension offer - on one level, it's hard to blame Corey and agent Rob Pelinka for turning it down. He's not quite 28, and the restrictions placed on extensions will not apply to a new free agent deal next summer. If his stats return to 03-05 levels as a starter, there's little question that he's underpaid by NBA standards in his current deal ($7.8M this season). BUT, take a look at this past summer's free agent market. By my count, a grand total of two players changed teams for salaries as high as the $8.5 starting salary Corey just turned down (Rashard Lewis and Darko Milicic). That's partially a function of the number of teams with cap space, but as of now, it looks like Charlotte, Atlanta and Seattle are the only teams looking to have significant space next summer, and they're all loaded with young wings (lots can change quickly here of course). So if Corey was planning on making a killing going to another team as a free agent, he could be disappointed. This is good news for Citizens of ClipsNation who want Corey to remain in LA - the Clippers are one of only a few teams who can pay him what he wants. But it may come at a cost, if contract negotiations become contentious.
So he's the focal point on offense, and was just offered a contract in the neighborhood of $30M for 3 years, but it's still far from clear if he'll be with the team next season, or even by the end of this season. Part of this uncertainty is of course a result of the dysfunction from last season - it just FEELS like Corey isn't going to be here. But the drafting of Al Thornton certainly contributes to the confusion.
There's also the matter of salary cap economics. You simply can't re-sign everybody, and Corey's at that point in his career where teams often decide that they can't afford a player, even if they like him. I would not have been surprised if that had been what the Clippers decided in this case, but then they went and offered him the extension. Color me confused.
All this to say, this is going to be a fascinating subplot to this Clippers season. How does Corey perform as the first option on offense? Does he lead the league in free throws made? Or does he lead the league in turnovers? Or both? And then there are all the external factors exerting force. How does Quinton Ross perform this season (an unrestricted free agent next summer)? How does Al Thornton perform? Are the Clippers going to re-sign two free agent wings with a lottery pick there also? And the team's performance will be paramount. If they pull a Grizz, go directly into the tank and finish with the worst record in the Western Conference (as many have predicted) then a house-cleaning is likely. And what of the injured players? Brand is pretty much a given, but Shaun Livingston is going to be a restricted free agent. How much of Donald's money will he end up taking? If he plays for two months and looks great, he'll sign a significant contract, leaving less for Maggette. Lots of moving parts here, folks.
A final thought - the Clippers have eight potential free agents on their roster, including five of their top eight when healthy. We all remember what happened the last time so many free-agents-to-be played on the same Clippers roster - the team regressed from 39 wins to 27 wins, and only two out of six key free agents returned. Those two? Corey Maggette and Elton Brand, who can both opt out this season.
A subject worthy of another post.
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Dendumdendum
It's great to get a bigger picture, other teams with capspace next summer, etc. Accepting the extension would have been shocking. One reason is that it's important to remember that Maggette was one of the best bargains in the league before Dunleavy went insane last year and started driving down his stock price.
So many factors in the question of whether Maggette might resign. First, the Clips have to hold the fort and win 10-12 games in the first two months. They'll only get these wins if Maggette is playing well and carrying a big part of the load, along with other guys like Kaman.
But another intriguing factor that you point out are the other players trying to get paid. Start with Kaman. Kaman got paid. Kaman needs to play a whole lot better to start earning his money. Now is his chance. If Maggette steps up in November and December but Kaman doesn't, the Clips might not get the necessary wins, and Maggette and Cassell are both traded. But from Maggette's perspective, he's going to want to make as much money as Kaman, probably more, if he's going to reestablish himself as the second best player on the team, all-star caliber scorer, etc. The extension would have put him close to Kaman's number, but he wants to surpass him I would think.
Livingston is even more complicated. My theory from the beginning, even before Brand's injury, was that Liv's bad luck and MD's bad karma had given Maggette a chance to play for Livingston's money. Livingston was headed for a Kaman-like extension at the very least--of course, he had a ways to go with his production in order to get there, but he was on track. The injury downgraded him to a category that should be similar to Maggette's existing deal, I would think. And that is probably being generous. I like these 3 year deals--you know, the ones where LeBron gets to wear the Yankees cap to the Cleveland game? Wilcox got one. If Liv comes back this season and shows that he can still play and he has some real potential, he would be in line to get that type of deal.
Best case scenario, DTS spends some serious money. He keeps Brand, Kaman is overpaid but he plays well enough to be respectable, Maggette has great production and gets a very good deal, and the Clips get Liv for less money for a shorter term, during which time he can prove durability and value.
Too good to be true.
by zhivclip on Oct 10, 2007 6:31 PM PDT 0 recs
But here's the question...
by ClipperSteve on
Oct 10, 2007 7:42 PM PDT
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A qualified yes
But that's just the first phase. Okay, so let's say the Clips show that they're a real NBA team without EB, and they do pretty well, and Kaman does some damage and plays somewhere close to his potential, and Maggette, unleashed, shows that he can score, win, rebound, and basically be an elite-level player, or close to it. Now Brand comes back. There's an adjustment there (MD decides to continue starting Thomas or Davis or Powell and wants to bring EB off the bench--ha! funny stuff!) but that goes smoothly, more wins, and now the Clips are a low-level playoff team. And Livingston comes back. He does really well and stays healthy. At this point (50+ games in) you know what you're getting from Kaman, Maggette, and Brand, and you're watching Livingston very carefully. (If Livingston is too good too soon it might mess everything up, but it would be a high class problem.)
If all that happens the Clips are in the playoffs at full strength, and you'll have a pretty good idea of how competitive they are. I think Livingston is the key man in terms of whether they can get to the finals, although Kaman needs to make so much progress that he is a big factor too. I think we already have a great idea of who Brand and Maggette really are, and we'll definitely be seeing Maggette in action very soon. It's such a bizarre turn of events that have put Maggette (and Kaman) in this position of opportunity and responsibility, but it will really establish if those two guys can be championship-caliber players. They're lucky that they have Cassell to help them out, but they're in a make-or-break situation. If they have real value and can be worth the money, the team should actually be very effective without Brand. That's what we're going to find out very soon.
The Livingston situation is, as I said, the key, and that is going to be complicated. Livingston has to step up to where he is very good and very solid, but expectations have to be reasonable for this year and he just has to get back on the court and stay healthy. But his game should be evolving, along with his strength. The knee injuries/microfracture discussion applies here: Livingston doesn't need to play above the rim, he doesn't need to be Connie Hawkins or Dr. J. Magic never played above the rim. Liv just needs to use his length and retain some speed; he already has the skills. With his ballhandling and length, he can play defense and if he develops the Jerry West/Sam Cassell perimeter simple jump shot, he's going to be very valueable and very hard to stop. Maybe it's worth thinking about him like post-knee injury Ron Harper as Jordan and Kobe's backcourt mate in the triangle, except with real point guard skills.
Mobley has always been fine, a perfectly good 5th starter for the Clips, a good defender, reliable, plays hard, can shoot. If Thornton is good enough (and his age and maturity are good), he can be the guy off the bench, then Dunleavy has to accept that Maggs plays 35 mins, which means Mobley plays fewer minutes. That will be something to watch--it's been an interesting situation, with Mobley sitting out both preseason games, after playing 37 and 41 mins in the first two preseason games last year. Can Dunleavy start Maggette and leave him in, bring Thornton in and take Ross out. We'll see. And then do you bring Mobley in for Maggette, which leaves Q Ross out of the rotation? How do you get minutes for Patterson when Brand comes back? All of these questions are the kind that Dunleavy consistently messes up on, or at least he failed all of them in spectacular fashion last year.
But to get back to the main question, Mobley is a good enough piece and there are plenty of guys backing him up, especially with Maggette's ability to slide over to SG: Thornton, Ross, Patterson. As far as getting to the finals is concerned, if this scenario holds, the Clips just have to get the right SG in the draft, someone who is a pure player at the position. Have to wonder who the best SG available was when they drafted JJo, if they could have just signed Dickau anyway, if there was somebody who could beat out Diaz (and Korolev and Aaron Williams). The Clips need a Thornton-like young talent who is a pure SG. QRoss is a nice player, and he could solve the problem and eventually replace Mobley I suppose, going back to the scenario of one year ago (when Dunleavy lost his mind) where Mobley comes off the bench. Ross really needs to develop into a much better offensive player, but we'll probably see some evidence of that this year. And that's where some of the Big Money you're talking about would go--if you're heading into the future with Brand, Kaman, Maggette, and Liv, and you're already spending real money on Mobley and TThomas, is there any way that you can resign Ross, because he's going to be your 5th starter as your core unit becomes a perennial playoff team? Will Ross be good enough to take that role? It sure would have been nice if the Clips had addressed that question last year, starting Maggette and Ross and bringing Mobley off the bench, when they were in experimenting, trial and error (mostly error) mode. All we definitely know now is that Ross can't start instead of Maggette--duh. Now Maggette and Mobley have to start. In the end, I'm not exactly sure how to factor Mobley and Thomas into the equation, with three years left on their generous contracts.
But that's a short answer to your long and complicated question.
by zhivclip on
Oct 11, 2007 5:08 PM PDT
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Zhiv has to be commended for
Let's start at the top. We have a coach who makes too many mistakes and doesn't seem to recognize the talents in the team. I find it difficult to believe that he will suddenly find a system that works. He hasn't done it in 15 years.
We also have a GM who, along with the coach, doesn't seem to draft the right players. Korolev? You make a great point about needing a great scoring SG. Guess what? Many thought they needed to draft an SG this year. R. Stuckey was available at 14. The Pistons took him at 15.
Kaman is another question mark. We'll see what happens there. By the way, Kaman can't go it alone on interior defense - get used to the Clippers trying to outscore other teams - that is the only way they will win this year.
Livingston is yet another huge question mark. I think he has some talent, but to compare him to Magic (if that is actually what you are doing) is misplaced. Livingston unfortunately will never be Magic. Of course, he doesn't need to be Magic. He does, however, need to be able to consistently run an offense and consistently hit a jump shot. He hasn't shown that yet. And he's extremely injury-prone.
One of the main problems with the team as currently constituted is the lack of three point shooters. Good teams, and particularly championshi teams, must have several three point shooters. Particularly at shooting guard. While defensive specialists like Ross certainly have a place, if they cannot shoot the three, or shoot the mid range jumber, they will not start. Bowen, for example, is so valuable not only for his defense but also because hs stretches the defense as a three point shooter. As you noted, Stuckey would have been a good choice. The problem is particularly acute with the Clippers because Livingston is not a three point shooter.
In any event, I'm looking forward to the season. It will be interesting to see what happens.
by Jax on
Oct 11, 2007 10:25 PM PDT
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Should have previewed
And paragraph 5 has a mistake, about whether Dunleavy will be able to leave Maggette in and take Mobley out. That whole paragraph is as confused as the Clipper wing situation, appropriately enough I guess.
But hey, when I look at this scenario I have to say that there really isn't any reason that the Clips can't follow the program and win the championship this year, while they've still got Cassell and this deep bench. Why not hope for it all, while it's preseason?
by zhivclip on Oct 11, 2007 5:22 PM PDT 0 recs
Everyone is undefeated in october
by ClipperSteve on
Oct 11, 2007 9:47 PM PDT
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