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Clippers 104 - Bucks 103

Let's start with the positives.  The Clippers won two consecutive road games for only the second time this season.  They broke even on a road trip for only the second time this season.  They once again have that precious (8) next to their name in the standings, at least until about 10PM Friday night.  And they have played well for the better part of six consecutive games, more or less playing with their third and fourth string point guards.  

But they sure didn't make it easy on themselves in the fourth quarter of this one.  And that one atrocious quarter has the potential to undermine the 20 or so good quarters they played on this trip.  

I was a little too wound up last night to post a recap.  In fact, I was watching on the TiVo when the ClipperWidow arrived home from yoga just as Charlie Bell sank his first three to cut the lead to four.  She tried to watch some with me, but I guess I wasn't real pleasant to be around at that point.  No wonder she doesn't really like basketball.    

Looking at the play-by-play, and re-watching the game, I'm actually not as depressed as I had been.  Losing a 19 point fourth quarter lead is not a good thing, don't get me wrong.  But it actually wasn't that surprising.  Here's what I saw.

Going into the fourth, everyone thought it was already over, and the Clippers played like it.  Even Ralph and Mike had lost all of their focus.  The Bucks scored the first 6 points of the quarter to cut the lead to 13, but it wasn't until after Ewing made a bucket and then Redd made two free throws that Ralph NOTICED that the lead was down to 13.  In those sloppy and lackadaisical opening 3 minutes, the Clippers also committed 5 team fouls, meaning the Bucks would shoot free throws the rest of the way.

It's understandable, if not really excusable, that the team would lose it's intensity.  They had built a lead as high as 22 and had been scoring at will the entire game.  The Bucks were actually playing great on offense - Mo Williams and Ruben Patterson were both on fire, and although Michael Redd had not been unstoppable, he still had 16 through three quarters.  But the Clippers were scoring so easily, they just assumed it would continue.

After trading a few baskets, the lead was back to 13 with Corey Maggette shooting a second free throw when the Clippers went Sub-Zero cold.  Maggette missed the free throw, they missed their next 6 shots and another free throw, and also committed 3 silly turnovers.  Concurrently, the Bucks got a four point possession that cut the lead to 9.  What is it about the psychology of the double digit lead?  As long as the lead was 12 or 13, everyone on the floor seemed to know that they Clippers were going to win.  After that four point trip (a free throw, a rebound of a miss and a Redd three), everything changed.  By the way, the Clippers played outstanding defense on this game-changing play - Ross almost had the steal, and then was all over Redd when he made the three.  Sometimes good offense beats good defense.

Suddenly, down a manageable 9 instead of an insurmountable 10 (double digits are magical), the Bucks were pumped up.  The Clippers on the other hand, having lost their intensity when they had the big lead, now couldn't find it.  Where did you last see your intensity?  Did you re-trace your steps?  Maybe it's under the bed.  

The Bucks made 4 of 6 three-pointers in the fourth quarter, after going 0 for 4 in the first three.  They also made 14 of 16 free throws, thanks in large part to all of the silly fouls the Clippers committed in the first 3 minutes.  That's 26 points in ones and threes.  If you were looking for a formula for losing a big lead in the fourth quarter, that would be it: give up free throws (stops the clock, extends the game) and threes (gets points back in a hurry).  The Bucks were actually 3 for 9 on their two point attempts in the quarter.  

The Clipper offense never got going, but at least the defense dug in when it counted.  The Bucks first chance to take the lead came with 2 minutes left, and Elton Brand blocked Michael Redd's shoot.  Then, when the Bucks had a one point lead and the ball with 45 seconds left, the Clippers forced a shot clock violation to give themselves a chance to win the game.  Once again it was Brand, on Redd on a switch, who came up big.

As for the fourth quarter offense, well it has got to be a concern.  After shooting 56.5% through three quarters (35 for 62), the Clippers were 5 for 17 in the fourth.  Take away Corey Maggette's 3 for 5 and 8 points in the quarter, and the rest of the Clippers combined for 2 for 12 and 6 points.  Mobley 0 for 3, Kaman 0 for 2, Ross 0 for 1, Brand 0 for 1 and 2 for 4 from the line, Ewing 1 for 3, Hart 1 for 2 (the game-winner).  

This has of course long been an issue for the Clippers.  Where do they go when they need a basket in the fourth quarter when the opponent is playing its best defense?  Elton Brand remains a limited offensive player and is not yet great against the double team, Cuttino Mobley is hot-and-cold and almost NEVER hot in the crunch, and Corey Maggette lives and dies with his ability to get to the line, while refs are reluctant to make calls late in a game (after Corey's layup to bring the Clippers within one with 45 seconds left bodies were strewn under the basket like so many bowling pins with nary a whistle to be heard).  Sam Cassell was the guy the Clippers turned to last season; Shaun Livingston may someday be that guy.  But right now, there really isn't anyone.

Unless you count Jason Hart.

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Crunch Time
Maggette has hit a few game winners as a Clipper, but the only two Clippers who seem comfortable with the ball in the clutch are Sam I Am and Tim Thomas.  They would be the ones to take my final shot, and both were out last night.
(Shaun may be that guy in the future, and he was against the Sixers in Philly last month.)

All in all the Clippers seem to be moving towards what we expect.  

Why start Ross after Maggette has been in the role for 3 weeks?  Good teams have a set starting lineup and adjust as the game goes on.  This is what we are talking about when we say overcoaching.  Ross would have had plenty of time to guard M. Redd later.  Put your best five forward...it is a time tested philosophy.

by mp on Mar 22, 2007 12:15 PM PDT reply actions  

That ain't our coach...
MDsr is the king of overcoaching.  Interestingly, when he started Ross to guard Ray Allen back on 2/28 (ClipperZoe Junior Spirit night), he left Maggette in the lineup (to guard Rashard I guess) and brought Blanket off the bench.  But with Blanket playing well lately, it was time to bench Corey for the first time since the ASB.  I agree with you... I'd rather have a lineup.  But at least he figured out how to play Maggette 34 minutes (much easier with 3 regulars hurt, of course).  

Even his use of Ross strikes me as strange.  Not only is he a terrific on-ball defender, he's also the best team defender.  So he is a big boost on defense, even if there's no Allen or Redd for him to guard.  Look at the back-to-back Sonics games last month - 35 minutes for Ross with Allen in the lineup, 6 without Allen.  What's that?  I mean, I see the pattern, but wouldn't Ross have helped in the second game (which the Clippers lost, btw) guarding Rashard some and just generally playing perimeter defense?

by Steve Perrin on Mar 22, 2007 12:29 PM PDT reply actions  

True dat
Ross is an outstanding help defender.  He should get 20-30 minutes, and be in there for a defensive stand.  Maybe Dunleaby is saving him for the playoffs.  (Playoffs?) - Jim Mora

Is Coach not confident in his team and it's style?  Pick a damn lineup and play your game, which is supposedly pounding it in to EB and CK.  Make the opposition adjust.

Adjust to their adjustment.  But don't concede Kaman to Phoenix and G.S.  Make them stop him down low.  

MDSr. prides this team on being able to play any style, which is useful, especially in the playoffs.  But is this happening at the expense of playing any one style well?  

Blanket/Sam yo Soy/Elton/Maggette/Kaveman.  Do it.

by mp on Mar 22, 2007 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well put
There's one 7 foot fly in this ointment.  Kaman simply isn't one of the five best players on the Clippers right now.  When Thomas hurt his elbow against the Bulls, Kaman was forced to play in the fourth quarter (and performed surprisingly well).  But when was the last time other than that he was on the floor in crunch time?  When did you want him out there?

BUT, I agree that it's counter-productive to preemptively adjust to the other team's style.  You're conceding the strategic victory to them before the opening tip.  Doubtless this has contributed to the Clippers' almost complete lack of an identity this season.

by Steve Perrin on Mar 22, 2007 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

The funny thing
I bet alot of fans out there would consider that sort of thing a great game and here we are bitching about it.  I've had Lakers fans tell me as much explicitly.  They don't care about the quality of basketball.  They only care about last second drama.

Clippers people are cut from a different cloth.  From 68 games observed we know the Clippers tend to play only about 36 minutes a game.  We saw the exact same collapse against MIN.  It was a high drama finish...and that's exactly what was very disappointing about it.

by John R on Mar 22, 2007 2:09 PM PDT reply actions  

any surprise that Lakers fans want drama?
they are all actors.

Drama, I don't do.

Give me stability.

by mp on Mar 22, 2007 2:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

I rarely want Kaman on the floor right now
But, I have noticed that when the Clippers open up by working it into him down low, and he doesn't

a.  dribble
b.  head fake  (I think the guy is afraid of dunking.)

the results are ok.  He sets the tone.  

I never want him in there in crunch time.  That is not his role.  It wasn't last year, either.
EB, TT, CM, Blankey, Sam, QRoss - those are the guys who can bring it home.

by mp on Mar 22, 2007 2:11 PM PDT reply actions  

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