The Domino Theory

by Steve Perrin on Jul 10, 2007 5:07 PM PDT in News

So for now we'll stick with the dominoes analogy as it relates to free agent point guards.

Billups has re-upped with the Pistons. (BTW, was I the only one who found it hilarious that his agent called a somewhat premature report of 5/$60M a 'vicious rumor'? It's vicious? Really? We're reporting that he's going to make $60M and that's vicious? And two days later when he signs, sure enough, the earlier report was erroneous. He signed for 5/$60.5. That extra .83% apparently being the demarcation between fair market value and vicious.)

Next in the pecking order is Mo Williams. Mark Stein is reporting that the Heat are close to landing him, despite the fact that they have only the mid level to offer. Apparently, Williams will either sign with the Heat for a chance to play with DWade and Shaq (and compete for a place in the Finals, if not a title) or take the money from the Bucks.

Williams is said to be leaning toward Miami and the persuasive recruiting trio of Shaquille O'Neal, Pat Riley and Dwyane Wade, even though the Bucks are positioned to offer more guaranteed money.

Meanwhile, as most people might have guessed, the Lakers will likely end up with Derek Fisher back in purple in gold.

Fisher, according to NBA front-office sources, is no longer even considering other teams and is on track to re-sign soon with the Lakers -- who drafted him in 1996 -- barring an unexpected snag in negotiations.

If indeed those two things play out as anticipated, it eliminates two rival suitors in the Clippers' pursuit of Steve Francis. The teams that have point guard needs and reasonably compelling pitches are the Lakers, the Heat, the Nuggets and the Cavs. If you take the Lakers and Heat out, that leaves Denver focused on Steve Blake while the Cavs don't appear to be shopping in the same price bracket as the others (I've only seen them linked to guys like Navarro and Papaloukas - the emergence of Daniel Gibson in the playoffs probably has something to do with that).

Here's what Stein had to say about Francis and the Clippers:

If Williams indeed winds up in Miami and if Fisher returns to the Lakers, that will only enhance the Clippers' chances of signing Steve Francis when Francis' all-but-done Portland buyout is complete.

Francis is close with Shaq and is said to have had strong interest in the Heat and Lakers. The Clips, though, were in the lead from the start, with age (Sam Cassell at 38) and injury (Shaun Livingston) concerns at the point and Francis' close pal Cuttino Mobley as their lead recruiter.

Denver has reportedly expressed interest in Stevie Franchise as well, but the Clippers are arguably a better fit (Francis and Iverson in the same backcourt? That's as crazy as Francis and Marbury), and Mobley should be able to seal the deal.

While we're on the point guard topic, Papaloukas has reportedly re-signed with CSKA Moscow - tax free salary, an apartment, a car, a driver and multiple other perks apparently being significantly more lucrative in total than the NBA mid-level exception (I've also heard that Moscow girls make him scream and shout, but I have no confirmation on that).

At any rate, with the moratorium ending soon, when free agents are actually allowed to sign deals, all of this will shake out very quickly.

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Comments

The Bucks could be a suitor too

if they lose out on Mo Williams. At the least they can guarantee playing time.

-Matt BlogABull.com

by Matt @ Clips Nation on Jul 10, 2007 8:05 PM PDT reply actions

Miluakee (sp?), LA?

Let's see. Go to a town that is freezing cold and impossible to spell, or a two letter town with the best climate on earth?

Plus Stevie's bestest friend is here. Unless the Bucks throw a ton of cash at Franchise, which is unlikely, he should be a Clipper by mid-month.

If he can regain any of his pre New York form, this could be good.

by mp on Jul 10, 2007 8:41 PM PDT up reply actions

Good point Matt

The Bucks are on the market if they lose Williams. But I have to agree with mp that LA is a more compelling destination that Milwaukee. The Clippers can't say that too much, but nobody really wants to go to Wisconsin (just ask Yi).

HOWEVER... the Bucks are one of the few teams that can offer him more than the mid level (if Williams goes). I don't think they would, but if they did, it could change the equation.

by Steve Perrin on Jul 10, 2007 9:47 PM PDT up reply actions

Other things also

If Miami gets Mo Williams they might make a strong play for Artest also. Since they're biggest weakness last season was defending the mid range game and rebounding, and while Artest doesn't help on the boards, he would greatly help the mid range game. Plus it would take some of the wear and tear off Wade too. This could make the Kings summer very interesting. Which then in turn would make the East more interesting. The Mo Williams signing could be the domino effect that triggers league wide moves.

And I'm totally with you on the Billups thing. I said something similar to that effect somewhere (i think on str). Agent's are bad parents. They get paid to be snotty annoying assholes.

Playing basketball at the LA Arena is kind of like volunteering to be Satan's Spawn. It just shouldn't be contemplated.....

by pookeyguru on Jul 11, 2007 1:44 AM PDT up reply actions

I apologize for ripping you off too

But i've had a few beers and I wasn't paying that much attention to the header of the post. My fault.

Playing basketball at the LA Arena is kind of like volunteering to be Satan's Spawn. It just shouldn't be contemplated.....

by pookeyguru on Jul 11, 2007 1:52 AM PDT up reply actions

NP

I thought it was an homage.

by Steve Perrin on Jul 11, 2007 9:23 AM PDT up reply actions

next year is a free agent bonanza

a lot of talent comes off the books league wide next year. There could also be a lot of opting out.
Most of the great players will stay put, but there should still be some good getting.

This is not the year to be committing stupid money to anyone.

by mp on Jul 11, 2007 5:45 AM PDT up reply actions

Agree 100%

The difference in talent level, 2007 to 2008, is huge. Yet Jason Kapono signs for close to the mid level. Across the board, guys continue to sign for pretty ridiculous amounts, despite the fact that it should be a buyer's market this year. Go figure.

by Steve Perrin on Jul 11, 2007 9:23 AM PDT up reply actions

I think it's clear

that anytime you acquire a guy thru FA you're going to overpay him some. That's just the nature of the beast. Which makes me wonder when teams are going to stop overpaying guys.

Playing basketball at the LA Arena is kind of like volunteering to be Satan's Spawn. It just shouldn't be contemplated.....

by pookeyguru on Jul 11, 2007 8:57 PM PDT up reply actions