Clippers vs. Suns - Game Preview and Open Thread
by Steve Perrin on Jan 15, 2008 12:20 PM PST
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| 10-23 | 26-11 | |
| Staples Center | ||
| Jan. 15, 2008 - 7:30 PM | ||
| Probable starters: | ||
| Sam Cassell | PG | Steve Nash |
| Quinton Ross | SG | Raja Bell |
| Corey Maggette | SF | Boris Diaw |
| Tim Thomas | PF | Shawn Marion |
| Chris Kaman | C | Amare Stoudemire |
The Clippers have lost 10 of their last 11 games. The 10 losses have come against 10 playoff teams, with an overall winning percentage of 66.7 (248 and 124). Eight of the games have come against the top five teams in the nasty Western Conference, who amazingly are currently within a single game of each other in the standings. And tonight they face the Suns for the third time in eight games and the final time this season. This certainly looked like a brutal stretch on the schedule, and it has lived up to expectations. The Clippers have played well of late. They took the lead from the Spurs in the fourth quarter before falling by 6. They had a chance to take the lead against the Magic with 3 minutes to go before losing by 7. And they led basically wire-to-wire against Dallas before giving up a walk-off three. But they've still lost 10 of 11. Good teams find a way to win, and bad teams find a way to lose.
The Antagonist:
The Clippers have actually played the Suns better in Phoenix this season. In their last meeting they probably would have won except for a complete stinker of a game from Corey Maggette (3-17). And back in November Kaman went 6 for 18 in a 9 point loss. The point is, maybe the Clippers can play with the Suns, but they certainly can't afford sub-par games from their scorers. The Suns started the season thinner than ever, and recently got thinner still when Grant Hill had an appendectomy. That puts former Clipper Brian Skinner and Marcus Banks squarely in their 8 man rotation. The problem for Suns opponents is that the other 6 are REALLY good. I'm talking recent award winners good. Nash, Stoudemire and Marion are all All Stars and All Pros. Barbosa was last season's Sixth Man Award winner. Raja Bell was first team All Defense last season. Boris Diaw won the Most Improved Player Award the season before that. There can't be another roster in basketball that boasts so many awards from the last two seasons.
The Subplots
- Apparently Injuries Matter. The Suns lost by 20 in Utah last week in Utah playing without their best player and without three starters. Now they know how the Clippers feel. Watching that game, I was struck by Doug Collins talking about how the Suns are susceptible to giving up offensive rebounds or some such blather and I thought to myself 'Why are you even talking about the Suns. These aren't the Suns. There's no point in analyzing this team.' And that's how I feel about the Generic Clippers. Individual growth from Kaman and Thornton in particular is important. And I think there's something to be said for learning to win as a team which makes the current struggles problematic. But for the most part, what's the point in analyzing this team, when it's not even close to the team that will take the court next November when anywhere from two to four starters will be different? Of course, as a Clippers Blogger, it pains me to realize there's no point to all of this.
- First Meeting from ClipperSteve's perspective. Although the Clippers and Suns have played three times already, I have not seen any of those games. The NBA schedule makers saw fit, not only to ensure that there was no chance the Suns would have to face Elton Brand this season, but also to put all of there games in holiday weeks - the day after Thanksgiving, and then back to back a couple of days after Christmas. I've missed a total of five games this season - three of them have been against the Suns. So if you're looking for specific insights based on observations of the first three meetings, you might try ClipperBlog.
- Kaman's Ankle. According to this morning's LA Times, Chris Kaman is questionable for this game after tweaking his ankle in the Dallas game. Clippers.com lists him as a game time decision. I certainly didn't see him hurt himself in the Dallas game. I'd be very surprised if he didn't play. If he doesn't, it will be the first time this season. And oh by the way, the Clippers have no chance without him. Quinton Ross will play tonight after getting poked in the eye Saturday. That's good news, since he'll spend a lot of time guarding Steve Nash or Leandro Barbosa.
- That's Amare. Here are Amare Stoudemire's averages from the first three meetings with the Clippers this season. 29 points, 12 rebounds, 73% shooting (33 for 45) - in 30 minutes per game. After struggling for the first 4 years of his career guarding big centers, Kaman seems to be having a (somewhat more understandable) problem guarding the super-quick Stoudemire this season. Of course, if Nash and Barbosa and Diaw are penetrating and forcing Chris to help, Amare is going to get a lot of open shots around the rim. So it starts with the perimeter defenders keeping their man out of the lane.
- On the Road Again. Tonight's game is the last in a six game home stand. Moreover, due to the unusually leisurely pace of games (about one every three days), the Clippers have been in LA for 17 days. They have not played a road game in 2008. That changes soon. After a quick trip to Utah followed by three more home games, LA goes on the road for 9 out of 11. Of course, with a home record of 5-13, the road is probably looking pretty good about now.
- Will Guillermo Diaz Get in the Game? The Clippers signed Diaz to a 10 day contract on Jan 9th. He was inactive for the first game due to a clerical error, and did not get into the second game, probably because MDsr had a slim lead and couldn't bear to take his Blanket off the floor. Tonight and Friday night in Utah are the last two chances to see Diaz in an actual game before the 10 days are up (the Clippers could choose to sign him for another 10 days). Wouldn't it make sense to actually give the guy some minutes? I realize that they wanted another warm body for practices, but this season is going nowhere. Let's see if the kid can play.
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A Few Things
Haven't looked yet, but I'm curious about Kaman's stats against the Suns this season. Yes, Amare is tearing the Clips up, but I think that's in part a Tim Thomas issue.
The big thing to remember is that prior to this season, Kaman wasn't even able to stay on the floor against Phoenix. The Suns, of course, have been the Pacific division frontrunners for a few seasons now, and even when Kaman was playing well in the second half of the 05-06 playoff season, he was still virtually worthless against the Suns (Remembering EB being completely unstoppable...). Without looking at it, my sense is that in the first couple of games we saw that Kaman 2.0 could do a fair amount of damage against Phoenix, and they ganged up on him and held him down in game 3. The point being, the ability of new Kaman to run with the Suns and do some damage is a big step for the Clips, given the fact that previously he couldn't play against them at all.
--I would really love to see Diaz tonight, especially against Barbosa. The hope was that Diaz was a poor man's Leandro, and a wide open Suns game would be a good place for Diaz to get some good minutes where his speed, shooting, and athleticism come into play.
--The Clips quality loss against Dallas looks even better after Sacramento beat the Mavs last night. Unfortunately, Seattle got the job done by caving against the Bynum-less Lakers and Kobe's 44 shots. An ankle tweak for Kaman and tough opponents in the Suns and two games against the Jazz (playing better), and a stretch of 9 out of 11 on the road and no sign of EB coming back, makes it very possible that the Clips can get to 35 losses in 50 games by the all-star break.
It's going to be extremely difficult for the Clips to lose 50 games. But they can do it. The fact that they are pretty good is a big problem, and they're going to get better. This next stretch of 17 games is where the quality of the lottery pick is going to be determined.
by zhivclip on Jan 15, 2008 1:27 PM PST reply actions
I'm enjoying Zhiv's full conversion to my approach
I for one hope that management wouldn't stupidly roll out EB and Livi before the end of this year. Nothing good would come of that.
Happy to oblige
And the return of EB and Liv is a complicated issue. They're separate cases.
We know MD understands high level NBA tanking, and what's good for the team in the long term. So let's start with that. He'll work to make the team good and capable of winning, trying to establish that his system works and have players doing well within the system. And I think, especially after the Clips' fast and surprising start, that he began the year with the hold the fort strategy, before a few more injuries sent the team into a tailspin. But as the season progresses he is going to be very aware of their draft position. And towards the very end of the season I wouldn't be surprised to see some all-out tanking, although there might be some spoiler action and statement games thrown in. At this point, I'd be happy to see a few "I know you guys are going to the playoffs and we've only won 22 games, but we just kicked your butt" games.
EB is a competitor. He's also going to want to play with Kaman 2.0. I believe, given the Clips' situation, he might take an extra couple of weeks just to make sure that he's in top form when he comes back, especially if the team can get an extra quality loss or two in the interim. But he's going to play this season. It's interesting to see that there hasn't been a new examination and an update on his status since the beginning of the new year. Feb 21, game #51 against Memphis right after the all-star break, is still the obvious date, and that could be an important potential loss. But we'll see. It's the beginning of a homestand against Utah, Lakers, Boston, and Portland. Those games, with Denver on the road, are 5 potential losses if EB can hold off until March 1st to come back.
Livingston is a different story. I don't see Livingston making a significant contribution to the win column at least until the last month of the season. He needs to wait until he's completely ready and strong before coming back, but that being said, the more he can play and get beyond the jitters and get comfortable on the court, the better. You've probably seen how Clipperblog gave a nod to Devin Harris and called Livingston a bust in a somewhat offhand manner. He is a bust, at this point, and presents a very complicated contract and draft situation for the Clippers. As much as it would be nice to keep him under wraps, sign him at a low number, and then have him turn out to be healthy and great, that's an unlikely scenario. The direct path, which is that he plays, plays well, stays healthy, and shows some real value in games 67 to 77, is probably the way to go.
I don't mention games 78 to 82, because I expect to see big minutes from Diaz, Powell, Dickau, Q Ross, and of course Tim Thomas down the stretch.
by zhivclip on Jan 15, 2008 4:56 PM PST up reply actions
Suns/Jazz
It all sounded so familiar. Except the narrative was so different. When its the Clippers they are losing because its the Clippers. When its the Suns there must be some greater nuance.
Maybe the best thing to do to Fix the Clippers would be to simply change their name.
Oof
Good vibe so far
New wrinkles in the offense
Al and Guillermo together?
Suns facts
Nash is allowed to slide his pivot foot as far as he wants when he stops his dribble.
These things render them very difficult to defend.
Addendum
by Steve Perrin on Jan 15, 2008 10:26 PM PST up reply actions
please collapse more
please collapse more
Kaman just walked up to the ref
Marion
This renders him difficult to defend.
3 Seconds...
I can understand missing some that should be called. But how do you call it early?
by Steve Perrin on Jan 15, 2008 10:29 PM PST up reply actions
I admit to liking it
Where you been mp?
Good job team
I like when ever the Mike Smith gets the boot for the other team's analyst...makes for good banter during the game...we are truly lucky to have Lawler instead of that Laker blowhard!
I admit to liking it
Where you been mp?
Sorry I wasn't here...
Michael Cage on Pre/Post Game show
Old School...
by Steve Perrin on Jan 15, 2008 10:31 PM PST up reply actions
Q Ross
Just got back from Staples
- Clips defensive ferocity was there all night. We did a great job of collapsing whenever there was penetration. There was hustle from everyone - Maggette diving for loose balls, Cassell doing the superman into the stands to try and save a possession, Thomas (Timmay!) deflecting passes and getting steals, Mobley sprinting down the court to retrieve the ball, etc. This almost felt like a playoff game (hah!)
- Weakside defense is going to be a problem for a while until the players learn to just stay home. Along w/ the usual suspects Maggette and Thorton, today Cassell kept leaving Bell to go poke at the ball in the paint. Blame the coach (Jax) or blame the players (John R.) I'll blame both until the problem is fixed.
- The comments about the rule-violating Suns are dead-on. Amare (and Leandrinho) are carry-over machines. Nash slides his pivot foot two feet every time he stops. Diaw is probably second in the L (behind Lebron) in uncalled travelling violations, but it's even more annoying b/c his awkward movements make those 3-4 step moves even more blatant. Do the superstars/superteams win and then they get the benefit of the superstar/superteam calls, or do the superstars/superteams win because they get the benefit of the superstar/superteam calls?
- Kaman (much like Brand) gets absolutely no protection from the refs. It's quite disgusting. Sometimes I wonder if being a whiny girl helps in that regard. Then I think about Duncan (the real Timmay!), or Cassell for that matter, and realize that it absolutely does.
- Tonight was a quality win. I'll take it over a quality loss anyday, zhiv. :)
Yes I'm replying to myself
Lastly, someone needs to get in Thorton's ear about defensive rotations and rebounding effort. His shot selection will improve with experience, but I'm concerned that he's going to be one of those athletic guys with the basketball IQ of a french fry. TT has legitimately earned his starting job back. Remember, this is all coming from the only guy who cheered aloud when we drafted Thornton. Oh and Al, please stop picking your nose after every possession that you screw up, thanks.
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