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Break the Clips!

I didn't want to do this.  I was done with the issue.  Everything was fine, or so I was told.

Some quick facts about me, that may or may not be obvious to all of you.  I'm a planner, in the non-specific sense.  As I go about my business I look way ahead and quickly run through the multiple scenarios considering unintended consequences to actions before decinding how to attack a problem.  I also tend to look at the world as an economist, though an amatuer one.  Folks respond to incentives.  They also almost always act according to their own best interest.  (Alliteration for the win?)  Its the only rational way to behave.  If you refuse to behave rationally, what's the point of trying to predict how someone will act?  Finally, I love a dystopia, but I'm not really a pessimist.  I think all of these things are intertwined.

The following take is colored by all of this.  It is my updated vision of what happens when MDSr. is fired this afternoon.  I am not a novelist, so this will likely be in scattershot form.

The first consequence will be his coaches will be gone with him.  From observation the coaching staff seems to be a tight team and would likely stick together.  They know he will be hired somewhere else soon and want to hire them as well.  Based on NBA and Clippers history, I'd rank the interim head coach in order of likelyhood being:

  1. A random opportunistic, but completely unqualified assistant on the current staff seeing as how there is no clear heir
  2. Elgin Baylor
  3. Sam Cassell after a buyout
  4. A big ticket free agent coach
All of these options are poor, except for 4.  I just don't see it happening mid-season given Sterling and the state of the team as it is.

Next, Sam Cassell demands a buy-out and is suddenly and catastrophically "injured".  That's not the Sammy we know and love, but if ownership is giving up on the season, do we not expect the outspoken and aging Cassell to give up as well?  I can't predict whether he will receive it or not, but the end result will be Cassell gone for nothing.

The rest of the team plays on, but with a core piece unavailable an dark vibes around every corner.  They may win a few unexpected games based on a sense of us against them that tends to settle in to these situations.

As game planning and accountability fall by the wayside, frustration continues to mount as well as concern about ownership's dedication to win and to each player as individuals.

Livingston and Brand are rushed back in spite of the losses under mandate of ownership to help fill seats.

Mobley's competitiveness gets the better of him and he returns to the grumbling Cat post-Francis breakup.  His performance suffers and he becomes a minor lockerroom issue.

Quinton Ross is obviously gone at season's end, joining MDSr.'s new club for the veteran's minimum.

Kaman's self-awareness eventually leads to an existential crises.  With his champion/coach gone he questions why he bothers to try.  His performance plateaus, returning to something between 05-06 and 06-07.  Because he has always been a Clipper, noone outside LA seems to notice or care.

With no MDSr to check the Corey love, the Clippers outbid themselves in resigning Maggette at far above market value for the maximum number of years.  I see Odom level money.  Corey is pleased and continues to score precisely 20 or 21 points.  No more, no less.

Tim Thomas continues to play like Tim Thomas.  What does he care?

Knight and Dickau are also unaffected.  They continue to play hard, hoping earn their next contracts.  Anywhere but with the Clippers.

I can't predict what will happen to Livingston with or without MDSr., but I think the chances of the Clippers botching the dealings at the end of his rookie contract go way up without him.

EB is extended for the maximum.  Rightfully so.  Someone has to soak up the money that Sterling has to spend per the CBA.

Eventually Al Thornton is extended an offer sheet.  The Clippers do not match.

Even single day brings trade demands from veterans until some or all of Mobley, Thomas and/or Kaman (possibly even EB) are eventually traded for mutiple players to meet minimum roster requirements or just clear salary.

When the remaining of Mobley and Thomas' contracts expire, the Clippers rotate in rookies and has-beens to surround whoever remains of Maggette, Brand and Kaman.  The trio averages 60 points per game, but with no defense and noone else capable of getting that extra 40, they struggle hard to 29 wins.  Reaching out to free agents again becomes pointless, as the Clippers return to being the Clippers.  Thus, ensuring mediocrity remains just out of reach for years to come.

08-09 Clippers
Livingston ($5.8M)/Knight ($2M)/Scrub
Maggette ($14M)/Mobley ($9.1M)
Thornton ($1.7M)/Thomas ($6.0M)/Scrub
Brand ($16.4M)/Scrub/Scrub
Kaman ($9.5M)/Scrub
$64M + scrubs

All scrub slots filled by first person at that position who will play for the minimum for the Clippers.

10-11 Clippers
Scrub/Scrub/Scrub
Maggette ($16.5M)/Scrub
Thornton ($2.8)/Scrub/Scrub
Brand ($20M)/Scrub/Scrub
Kaman ($11.3M)/Scrub

Total payroll $50.6M + scrubs to bring the total to 75% of the salary cap.  I doubt all 3 of Kaman, Brand and Maggette remain by this time, however.

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