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Bobcats 107 - Clippers 100

Some of you have been wondering why no recap of this game.  Have I been too busy conducting phone interviews with the national media?  Or was the whole 'swept by Charlotte' thing just too painful?  Really, it's neither of those things (although the game certainly was painful to watch).  

I had plenty of time to write a recap yesterday, but I just didn't do it, and I wasn't really sure why.  Then as I was reading some of the comments on ClipperBlog I realized what was going on.  Let me explain.

There were several comments on the game thread along the lines of "After that game, I'm not going to renew my season tickets" and "I heard a lot of people saying they weren't going to renew their season tickets."  And then it hit me.  Writing a recap of that game is pretty much pointless, just as making a decision regarding next season based on that game is absurd.

The Clippers had 9 players in uniform.  Of those, two are in their late thirties and in the final year of their contracts, and are highly unlikely to be on the Clippers roster in a month, let alone next season (Sam Cassell and Aaron Williams).  Two more would not be on the active list if all 14 current Clippers were healthy enough to play (Josh Powell and Dan Dickau) and if in fact they are on the roster next season, they certainly are not expected to be in the rotation (please FSM, don't let Powell be in the rotation).  Of the other five, three of them are in their 30's and are each at least 10 year vets.  That gives them a 'been there, done that' air and the fatalism to understand that one more loss in a lost season is no big deal.  Sure, they are pros and they know how to score (hence Thomas' 29 points).  But defense is hard work, and it's a long season, and the team's not making the playoffs, and they're playing short handed, and they've got a long road trip coming up, so let's not get all crazy with the hustle here.

Sometimes short-handed games like these can be a lot of fun for the fans.  Maybe you get to see some young prospect who hasn't been getting minutes.  Maybe you field a team consisting of a savvy vet surrounded by 4 young guys desperate to earn some playing time even after the injuries clear up.  When the Warriors had 7 healthy players for a game against the Clippers last January, it was Baron Davis and Matt Barnes and five guys under 25; three of them weren't old enough to drink at the time; three of them had been in the D-league earlier in the week.  And let's face it, although Barnes was 26 and had been in the league for awhile, he wasn't that far removed from the D-league himself.  That's a fun team to watch, even if in the end they don't have much of a chance to win a game.  Those guys are going to work their asses off.

What a difference, right?  Three guys under 21 and Baron was the oldest player on the court for the Dubs at 27.  By contrast, 5 of the 9 Clippers in uniform were over 30 and Dickau is 29.  And let's face it, while Ross is going to play hard every chance he gets, he's pretty much a known quantity after being a starter for the better part of three seasons.  So in the end, even from a 'let's see what this guy can do' standpoint, there were only two Clippers worth watching - Al Thornton (6 fouls in 19 minutes) and Josh Powell (if I never see them run another play for Josh Powell it will be too soon).  So that was fun.

By the way, there's an interesting statistical analysis of Team Age and Team Success by Tom Ziller on BallHype right now (hat tip to TrueHoop).  The Clippers and the Heat live squarely in the Quandrant of the Hopeless, characterized by a very old roster that is very bad.  It's not a nice neighborhood.

By the other way, Thornton's game Monday is a good example of where per minute measurements break down.  Obviously a player's court time is going to have a huge impact on his productivity, so it has to be taken into consideration.  But here we have a game that probably looks great for Al from a PER standpoint (over 16 points and 10 assists per 40 minutes, solid shooting percentage, fairly low turnovers).  But he had a horrible game, because he wasn't on the court, and the Clippers needed him on the court.  In that regard, K2 deserves a lot of credit for staying out of foul trouble this season and staying on the court.  

Getting back to the original point, why would a season ticket holder make a decision about 2008-2009 based on that game?  The Clippers had $40M of next season's payroll out of action (and their lottery pick hampered by foul trouble).  80% of the starting lineup was not represented.  Did they play well?  Absolutely not - they were brutal to watch.  But the team on the floor bears little resemblance to the team you're likely to see next season.  And lest you forget, next year's season tickets will be for NEXT SEASON'S GAMES.  

Look, I don't have season tickets.  I have a wife and kids, and they like me around, and it just doesn't make sense for me.  So I'm not telling anyone what to do with their money.  If you don't want season tickets, don't buy them.  But basing the decision on that game would be silly.  Surely we all believe that the team we saw Monday compared to the 08-09 Clippers is apples and oranges, if not apples and helicopters.  

About the game.  Yuck.  How do you shoot a season-high 55% and lose to Charlotte?  By letting them shoot 57%.  For the second consecutive game, the Clippers allowed an opponent to shoot over 60% (62% to be exact) in eFG%.  Forget the All Star Game and the Most Improved Player race.  How about Defensive Player of the Year for K2?  The Clippers have gone from an above average defensive team with him to horrifically bad without him. How many uncontested layups did Charlotte get?  In t course of the game the Clippers stopped exactly nobody.  Of the eight Bobcats who played more than 3 minutes, 7 of them scored in double figures and Matt Carroll scored 8.  Derek Anderson scored 10 straight points in the first 150 seconds of the second quarter - and he hadn't scored 10 points in a game this season.

Deep breath.

It was an ugly, ugly game.  The Bobcats were almost as bad defensively as the Clippers.  But there's no point in dwelling on it.  And it shouldn't factor into your season ticket renewal decision process.

Last thing - a shout out to Barry's Tickets for hooking me up with great seats for the game.  Just my luck, I see the ugliest game of the year from the best seats I've ever had.  

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Totally
But no joke, my Clippers rep called me yesterday.  They are worried about exactly that.  For Sterling, its still all about the money.  He didn't try to sell me anything.  He was just taking my temperature.  I said everything was fine.  What else should one expect given?  As a wise man once said, "It is what it is".

Sterling wants to win, but only so far as winning sells tickets.  If he can make some spectacle of a move for short term gain and long term loss this season, I expect exactly that.  Ticket sales will go up, future prospects go down.

THAT sort of thing will definitely convince me to not re-up.  "Big Game" packages used to be enough basketball for me.  They could be again.

Stay the course or make a precision move, most likely with the expiring contracts and draft picks.  Only two acceptable options for me.

by John R on Jan 30, 2008 11:28 AM PST   0 recs

Now Thornton is sick too
The report today is that he went to the hospital with a stomach virus yesterday.  

Welcome to the Clippers!

Things are going to get better real soon, but the Clips are definitely pushing the boundaries to show just how low they go.  You make a good, fairly obvious point--who would complain about season tickets when not just a big chunk of the roster, but clearly almost all the best guys on the roster, can't go?

If the ticket office is calling people up, that strengthens my argument that Brand will be back for the long homestand right after the all-star break.  Kaman and Maggette should be back on Friday at the latest.  The guy I'm curious about right now is Livingston--we haven't heard about his status in awhile.

The amazing guy to look at on Monday night was Cassell.  He was all alone on the bench, with a look of desperation that spoke volumes, more than one of which was probably "how is it possible I'm still here?"  That's the beauty of Sam--he can play a big role in letting a winnable game go against Memphis, then get dramatic about team futility in the next game.

The Clippers are going to get a lot better soon enough.  Without any tanking sarcasm, these losses will actually serve them well at the end of the season.  But I think we'd all like to see the best players get back out on the court and start playing some good basketball.

by zhivclip on Jan 30, 2008 11:57 AM PST   0 recs

I agree
There is a vibe of panic around the team.  Not ON the team, but swirling around it.  This is how bad decisions get made.  Like rushing back guys before they are healthy with the goal of accomplishing the impossible.

On Sam, Sam's "camp" told ESPN he doesn't believe he will be traded because Sterling believes they can still make the playoffs.

Plausible given the recent kerfuffle, but here's the possibilities of the truth of that as I see it, in order:

  1. Dude was just talking
  2. Sam did hear that, but it was just the business people saying what they think we want to hear
  3. Sam did hear that and DTS really believes that

by John R on Jan 30, 2008 12:28 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

That's absurd
The team can't make the playoffs, period.  At this point, especially after losses to Memphis and Charlotte, what reasonable fan would believe that they can?  With Sam, "Dude was just talking" is pretty likely, since he does a lot of that, and the business people spouting that line--thinking we're stupid--makes sense too.

I don't think the Clips are going to rush anybody back.  And they certainly won't do it to try to make the playoffs.  What I can see, however, is them putting Brand back on the floor for the long homestand after the all-star break in order to sell tickets.  That, and to try to beat the Lakers and compete against Boston and show that they're a credible franchise with a good product and roster, that happened to have a very unfortunate year.

And I don't think that would be Brand "rushing  back."  He's running up and down the floor, dunking and jumping and doing pretty much everything--and we're talking about another 3 weeks.

If the Clipper product was a lot better through this stretch and on the road trip and they had won these three games (Mem, Cha, Atl) with two home victories, building on the Sacramento and NJ wins, I could see them holding Brand back until March 1st.  But now, in the climate of "swirling panic," I think they're going to want to do what they can to play better.  But what happens on the long road trip will also be a factor.  The road trip actually serves a good purpose of holding Brand out for a nice chunk, making it obvious that there's no reason to bring him back before the all star break.    

by zhivclip on Jan 30, 2008 1:35 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

They should
have been honest with the fans at the beginning of the year.  It is obvious to many of us that the team would not be able to compete at an NBA level.  They had the perfect excuse - EB and Liv were hurt.  Instead, they tried to massage things to try to get us to believe that the impossible was possible.  

by Jax on Jan 30, 2008 2:30 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

But who lied?
I mean there are alway going to be generic sporting platitudes about holding down the fort until X and then making a run at the playoffs, blah blah blah.  You have to say that.  No coach or player can just say, "we will struggle and suck hard at times."   Its just not done.

But its not like the Clippers org ran commercials promising a playoff run, at least that I noticed.  I bought my tickets last year.  EB got hurt.  I was disappointed, but I knew what would happen.  It didn't make me mad at the Clippers or EB or MDSr or Kaman or anyone.  The folks in my section, who are largely unchanged since I've had tickets, seem to be the same way.  We find ways to enjoy the game, which is easy because all of us have reasonable expectations that adjust to circumstances.

Its just concerning to me that they are acting as if some of us are dumb, that our expectations are so grossly out of line with reality that it would spark bitterness, and are threatening to take action based on that.  Make basketball decisions based on basketball.  Don't make basketball decisions based on marketing.

That's classic Clippers.  And thats bad.  Bring in a name past his prime on the cheap to make everyone feel good for a minute.  Doo-doo.

Of course, even more concerning is that some folks are acting dumb.  I suspect some of it is Maggette/MDSr partisanship, intentional or not.  If someone is going to cancel their tickets because the Clippers lost when so short-handed, I welcome the shorter lines at Staples.  Get me my favorite below-the-radar Thai joint back.  At least until mid-season next year.

Man the blog comments were alot smarter then too.  Damn you Henry Abbott.  Comparing Clipperblog then and now hurts my heart.

Yes, I can recall a Clipperblog post from Nov 06.

by John R on Jan 30, 2008 2:51 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Well-taken
My problem isn't that they're bad now - I knew they would be bad.  I just expect better communication and competent decision-making from management.  

For example, I know that you all like Thornton, but we really needed a young SG/PG from this draft.  We had Maggette.  Sam is old.  Stuckey was a perfect choice.  Now we have no outside shooters (isn't the Bobcat game evidence)?  That isn't a surprise, and EB's injury had little to do with outside shooting.

The Maggette/MDSr thing is also very frustrating, not only because it happened, but also because no one ever explained it to the fans.  They treat us like lemmings.  

I am not the type of season ticket holder who will pay to enrich an ownership and management who do not put a competent team on the floor.    

by Jax on Jan 30, 2008 3:05 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Stuckey...
I think you need to get off the Stuckey thing, at least for awhile.  At least until there's some evidence on your side.  I know he was hurt, but he's been back for six weeks, and he's shooting 31% as a pro.  He's made 1 three pointer in almost 100 field goal attempts, in 300 NBA minutes.  Thornton has made 15, in about 300 FG attempts, in 765 minutes.  There's really no measure, and certainly not outside shooting, by which Stuckey is looking like a better choice - not at this point.

Stuckey may turn out to be a great pro.  But the jury is out (way, way out), and the evidence right now doesn't support your argument.

by ClipperSteve on Jan 30, 2008 3:29 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Agree
That's why what happens now is important.  The trade deadline is before renewal time.

If nothing happens, thats pretty much ok.  If thrashing and dumbness happens, its not.

by John R on Jan 30, 2008 3:43 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Plus
You guys can defend the Clippers' 1st round draft picks all you want.  I would suggest that their record in that regard is spotty at best.  Korolev?  Travesty.  Livingston?  Bad.  Kandi?  Horrid.  Wilcox?  Not sure.  Kaman?  The only (and I mean only) recent bright spot.

by Jax on Jan 30, 2008 4:51 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

I'm not inclined to defend them
But to be fair, since personnel tends to get pinned on MDSr, you gotta seperate into pre- and post-.

And post-, Livvy is two years younger than Thornton.  Despite injury, he could still be the most productive Clipper out of that batch.  Maybe ever, if he gets and stays healthy now.  If.

Korolev.  Yeah, pretty bad.  Would any rookie have really cracked the rotation in 05-06 anyway?  Its bad, but I wouldn't characterize it as franchise-crushing.  Every team in the league has made a pick just as bad sometime in history.

My only point here is things aren't that bad.

by John R on Jan 30, 2008 5:23 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

It's not that Stuckey is the be all-end all
The point is that there were several SG/PG types available that the Clips could have plugged in immediately.  The 14th pick isn't the first two or three picks.  You need to pick based on need at that spot IMO.  Thornton didn't make sense.  

by Jax on Jan 30, 2008 4:50 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

I think you should always take the best player
and at 14, that was Thornton.  

Every attempt to bring in outside shooting has failed (Thomas/Mobley), which leads me to conclude that the offense is what ails the team.

The Clips also needed to get more athletic.  They did that in a BIG way with Al.  Give him time.  He will be very solid.  

by mp on Jan 30, 2008 8:58 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

You may be right, see tonight's game
Thinking the same thing about the offense

by Jax on Jan 30, 2008 11:11 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

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