Trade Deficit
As I ponder my own entry in the 'Fix the Clips' contest, I've noticed an interesting phenomenon. Although the Clippers have intriguing trade assets, and in some cases there are obvious destinations for the assets, conflicting goals or a simple absence of a good trade match has made it very difficult to come up with any reasonable trades. Maybe it's just a total lack of imagination on my part, but for the moment I'm stumped.
Sam Cassell is in the final year of his contract. He's a winner. He's a point guard. He's a veteran. All of those things make him highly tradeable. So why can't I come up with a good trade?
Part of the problem is that the fact that he's in the final year of his contract and the fact that he can actually play tend to cancel each other out - or at any rate, the value does not compound, as one might expect. Teams looking to make a salary dump would be interested in his contract - but those teams aren't interested in harnessing his playoff experience this May. Furthermore, the Clippers are in all likelihood NOT interested in taking back contracts in return given their salary cap situation. Meaning that Sam's salary dump value is almost nil. You can't have both partners dumping salary in the same trade.
So any trade involving Cassell would seem to hinge on the receiving team wanting the help he can provide. Given that there are a handful of teams who fancy themselves contenders who need help at the point (Cleveland comes to mind), this is still a possibility. Prior to the beginning of the season, I thought that Boston was a likely destination (a reunion with KG, an upgrade over Rajon Rondo); but with Rondo playing well and Boston cruising at 27-3, one wonders if Boston wants to do ANYTHING to their current team. But the biggest problem of course is that neither Boston nor Cleveland nor seemingly anyone else has anything that the Clippers would want. Still, Cassell to Cleveland for their first round pick (and a traded player exception) might be better than nothing.
Maggette, with an opt out in his contract for next season, is in a situation essentially identical to Cassell's from a trade value standpoint. He's good. He's short term, so he can help you now without hurting your cap long term. He's a lot younger than Cassell. But his relative youth is essentially irrelevant, since he could be in the final year of his contract. Any team that trades for him is essentially renting his services for the next 3 to 5 months. And as in the case of Cassell, the Clippers are highly unlikely to take back Maggette's full salary in a trade. Still, a playoff hopeful in need of an athletic wing might be interested. Wings are in less demand than point guards, so it probably narrows the field some. But wouldn't Corey be a nice fit in Orlando? Keith Bogans is their starting shooting guard, and Mo Evans is their first forward off the bench. Maggette would be a major upgrade in both cases.
The other Clippers who are likely to be shopped are Tim Thomas and Cat Mobley. There's nothing sinister or mysterious here. Brand, Kaman, Livingston and Thornton are the Clippers least likely to be traded. And anyone making $2M or less is not worth much discussion on the trade market. Which leaves Cassell, Maggette, Thomas and Mobley.
In the cases of Thomas and Mobley, the most likely scenario would be a straight salary dump for the Clippers. Thomas in particular may fit this description. With Thornton emerging and Brand returning, his minutes figure to decrease significantly next season. I've never liked Thomas, but I've defended the decision to bring him to LA based on the fact that he does something the Clippers need - he shoots threes. I'm beginning to rethink that - call it the RFP (Richie Frahm Postulate). If what you want is a one-dimensional long range shooter, let's pay the NBA minimum for it rather than the full mid level exception. Of course, Thomas is supposed to be more than just a three point specialist... but is he? And this season, shooting 33.6% from beyond the arc, he's not really even that (Thornton AND Maggette are shooting essentially as well from three.)
Still, Thomas proved two seasons ago that he can be incredibly valuable to a playoff team who needs his skills. Is there one out there? Would they be willing to live with Tim Thomas for two more seasons after this one? If someone offered a package of expiring contracts for Thomas, the Clippers should jump at it.
A similar, though less compelling argument, exists for Mobley. The Clippers figure to save more money since Cat is paid more. But he's also less redundant than Thomas - less redundant, in that he is not redundant at all, being the only real shooting guard on the Clippers current roster. So while it's not out of the realm of possibility that Cat could be dealt to a contender for expiring contracts, it seems unlikely.
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Hey Gang
--Good San Antonio game. Nice team effort, nice fleeting 10 pt. lead, nice fleeting 4th quarter lead after the TT 3, and overall a very solid game that would have produced a W against most teams, but not SA, especially with the Spurs, as CS points out, going to the line on every Parker and Ginobili drive. Should add that GSW beat the Spurs the next night, but had to hit a flurry of 3s to do it and get the BD GSW magic going to do it. Not sure what to make of it, but the Spurs and the Suns seem pretty beatable these days, while the Lakers look pretty strong, and the New Orleans/Laker game tonight should be interesting. At any rate, it was great to see the Clips play a good game. And it seems pretty obvious that a big part of the quality of Clip play comes from the fact that guys are healthy. Being home the last few days without playing, they should be even healthier--especially Mobley, and I guess Thomas and Cassell too, and it turns out that BKnight (playing great) needs the rest too.
Cassell is due to have a good game. His failure to hit a shot the last couple of games has been a drag on the team's effort. A good game from Cassell would make up for Knight having to sit with the stress reaction. And since Dickau has been on the shelf, he should be healthy and effective too, I would think, and hopefully he won't be rusty.
--Another factor is Thornton in the starting lineup. That's some progress (and valuable minutes), and I just hope it continutes. Dunleavy got cute, in the way he is prone to, starting Josh Powell against David West. MD should just close his eyes and start Kaman/Thornton/Maggette until Brand comes back, and let the rest work itself out. I still say that TT is a valuable player off the bench, and it was nice to see MD go to Powell at first and take his time bringing TT in. Powell is getting better as he gets minutes, starting to make some plays and build some confidence, and he's rebounding well, which is the important thing. But it's still Josh Powell, and it was a doofus move to start him against David West, especially since, in the event, Thornton did a much better job on West, but it's a good mix. I have to hope that the relatively minor TT injury was just the right wrinkle to move Thornton up, establish Powell as a potential resource, and reduce TT's minutes.
--Tough break for my man Paul Davis, felled with classic Clipper timing. Now, I agree, he should be waived for roster flexibility. There was a big missed opportunity to get him minutes in the first 30 games, which I've said a lot about, and I think he might have established himself pretty well. But it didn't happen, and now it's hard to say that he's ever going to be especially meaningful to a Kaman/Brand Clipper team. He'll rehab and work hard, but it's highly improbable that he would become an essential or necessary component, as opposed to an interchangeable part. Now we get to find out about Powell, but of course the real issue is to see how Thornton progresses.
--The Clips managed to squeak out the 10th victory by the end of the year, but in my original calculations I was just trying to get the Clips to January, and didn't see this tough stretch. And that was also based on optimistic healing for Brand, which we haven't heard anything about since New Year's, except for the note that the All-Star break may be too optimistic. I believe Liv is at the doctor this week and perhaps we'll hear tonight about him going to the next training level, but you would think that Brand would be getting looked at this week or next, or at least we would hear how his running is going on that special treadmill, whatever.
--Not sure what's going to happen with Cassell--although it'd be nice if started making some shots--but it's an interesting wrinkle that it may be financially beneficial for Maggette to stick with the Clips. I'm not sure what to think about that. There was a nice mini-Maggettifesto update on ClipperBlog last week, which could use some attention. Right now it would be nice to see a relatively healthy team start playing the kind of game they played against SA, and get a few wins, have Brand come back, etc., and see a good team on the floor playing together. There will still be a bunch of losses because of the schedule, but now that guys are healthy it doesn't seem like the Clips are built to tank effectively enough to make a difference, even if Brand takes an extra month before coming back.
Happy New Year everybody.
by zhivclip on Jan 9, 2008 11:29 AM PST 0 recs






