2008 NBA Mock
by Jax on Feb 10, 2008 8:18 AM PST
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PrintInteresting description of the picks in a great draft year. Clippers are projected to go 6th
The mock is here: http://realgm.com/src_feature/1130/20080131/2008_mock_draft_version_30_(early_february_edition)/
Eric Gordon - a great player - is expected to be available at the sixth spot. I say that the Clippers should grab him at that spot if he's available and Derrick Rose is gone. This draft is so strong that the second round also looks good.
Zhiv - I think that this is realistic for Klove. He has a tough choice to make. I don't think next year's draft class will be as strong, and he could improve his conditioning as a sophomore and get into the top ten (and make more money).
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Draft...
Certainly I can look at the situation based on NEED, and Gordon is a very good fit there. The Clippers desperately need a shooting guard with a big time offensive game, and that's Gordon. And since the knock is that at 6'2" he'll be undersized, that concern is mitigated by pairing him in the backcourt with a 6'7" point guard. It's a good fit for the Clippers and a good fit for Gordon.
Jerryd Bayless' ascension on this list is very interesting - this is by far the highest I've seen him. This one is also saying he can play the 2 - so that becomes a possibility as well. I know we're all a little tired of failed combo guards. But Bayless is sounding more and more like a guy who's guaranteed to be able to play be a scoring one guard, and may actually be successful at both positions, which is incredibly valuable of course.
Draft position obviously becomes crucial, but assuming LA doesn't win too many games after EB's return, it bodes well that this list has a fair number of valid wings in their top 9. Mayo, Bayless, Gordon, Buddinger and Batum all good be OK matches in theory.
If you luck out and win the lottery, Beasley is a no brainer. He's too good to pass up. Even I know that. Rose fits a need better, but I take Beasley for sure.
Still evolving
The good thing about the RealGM mock is that it actually seems to consider the Clippers' needs.
I don't think Bayless is the guy, or that he would have any value to the Clippers, but like CS, I really don't know very much. I did go to the UCLA-Arizona game, where the Bruins completely destroyed the Wildcats and Collison looked great. I didn't really look at any game previews and didn't know about Bayless and didn't notice him at all. He did nothing. I watched Budinger, who is fairly athletic but he was shut down and doesn't seem like anything special. But when the Bruins go to Arizona I'll be looking at Bayless very carefully.
It looks to me like the choice would be between Gordon or Mayo. We don't know where the Clips' pick will be, and the needs of the other teams ahead of them, but one of those guys should still be around at #6 or thereabouts.
Somewhere we should discuss the Clips needs from the draft. It's frustrating that we don't know more about what's going on with Livingston--who traveled with the team on the trip, I believe--, because it's going to be very important to see if he can play and how he does. Thornton is everything we could have hoped, I would say, because he covers the Maggette question--the Clips will be in good shape at SF if Maggette opts out, and in great shape if he stays. I would say that the goal is still to get the best SG available, who needs to be a good shooter, but there are other factors.
I'll leave Kevin Love alone for the most part for now, waiting to see how things play out. At this point he's going to have to tear up the NCAA tournament in order to come out--and excelling like that would be great for the Bruins. Chances are that he won't come out if he's not a top ten pick. Maybe he'll move up, maybe he won't. One thing that occurs to me is that the Clips might sell some tickets by drafting him. But all that is another discussion.
by zhivclip on Feb 12, 2008 12:10 PM PST reply actions
Evolving indeed...
To the question of evolution (no, not that question), I love to speculate as much as the next guy. But you're absolutely right about this situation, and it makes it almost impossible.
Livingston - do we get to see him 25 games this season? Or zero? Likely somewhere in between. How does he look when we see him? Best case scenario - we see him and he looks like he'll be the starting point guard for years and years (he's only 22 remember). Worst case scenario - we see him and he looks bad and tentative. Of course, not seeing him is almost as bad as the worst case. But given the importance of the position, and the Clippers situation beyond Livingston, it is a distinct possibility that point guard will be the top priority in this draft. But we don't know that.
Draft position - Dropping lower than 6 seems unlikely. Sure, the Wolves and Sonics have played a little better. Even the Knicks I guess. (Based on recent events, it seems to be a two team race between Miami and Memphis for the worst record, but you have to put your money on Memphis.) But none of the teams below the Clippers in the standings are expecting to add a multi-time all star to their roster in the next few weeks (as far as I know). Don't look now, but we've already passed Charlotte in winning percentage; Milwaukee is next, and 5 other Eastern Conference teams are within reach of an EB fueled LAC run (maybe even Sacramento). One huge advantage for the Clippers here - the bottom of the East is so bad, that all of these teams also have a legitimate shot at the playoffs. A tank decision for any team currently better than the Clippers has to come at the expense of the playoffs. There are currently no teams who can say, 'We're already out of it so let's improve our draft position.' A modest win streak and you're in the playoffs (look at Philly).
Finally, don't forget that the draft prospects themselves are moving. I don't know anything, but the people who do know are going to have these guys going up and down the charts. Someone we've never heard of could suddenly be in the lottery based on a late surge and draft camp athleticism off the charts.
Shooting guard (and shooting) will be a need of the team, that much we know. Point guard may or may not be a more pressing need.
by Steve Perrin on Feb 12, 2008 12:47 PM PST up reply actions
Not sure
Re:
He could have done for us what Chris Paul has done for the Hornets but he didn't and he won't. Point guard has to be a priority for the future either with a trade, free agency, or the draft. If they are counting on Livvy to be the 1st option in 2008/2009 it will be another long season.
Agreed - difficult business decisions
Brutal
In that case the Clipper need to quickly draft a PG, SG and SF and need to seriously look at C and even PF as well.
Its going to be rough to pull in that many lottery picks next year.
Re:
Do you and Jag just bag on each other out of reflex?
by Phil Gurnee on Feb 13, 2008 10:03 AM PST up reply actions
This part
You fault Livingston for not being Chris Paul. If that is how you decide if someone needs to be replaced, I'm just saying that standard might be a tad high.
Shaun is already an above average point guard, and because he is only 22, he still has significant potential. He unquestionably has injury issues.
The injury issues are a good reason to seek insurance. To me, that he isn't what somone expected him to be, or hoped he might be, or thought that he was, isn't.
Jag and whatever bag or whoever has nothing to do with this.
LOLOCAUST
You are a funny guy Jax.
The point is
You're right
What he doesn't realize, and what you do realize, is that someone has to decide who gets paid millions of dollars so as to help the franchise.
Personally, I like Livingston. However, if it were my money, I would spend it elsewhere. That's a reasonable position to take, and John R knows it. He just wants to get his two cents in.
Can't we all just get along...
toycannon referenced CP3 - John pointed out that he was setting the bar pretty high there.
Everyone agrees that point guard is a question mark for the franchise. That doesn't mean there's a simple solution.
I would echo what John is saying about the reality of Livingston versus the myth of Livingston. Shaun Livingston was an above average point guard last season before he got hurt. He wasn't what we thought or hoped he'd be, but he was very good. Don't forget what an incredible defensive player he is. He could have a terrific NBA career as a defensive stopper; we want more than that, but don't ignore what he already is.
How he comes back from this injury, and whether he spends the rest of his career getting injured, are questions we can't answer. But they are clearly concerns. But I would take pre-injury Livingston as my point guard of the future in a heartbeat.
With all due respect
RE:
Once he's back will he have that step that he rarely used when he could seemingly at will score at the basket? I doubt it. Will he develop his jump shot? I doubt it. He might still end up being a starting point guard but he is no longer the guy who will lead us to the promised land? The rest of our league is now being saturated with stunning point guard play from the likes of Nash, Paul, Baron, Deron, and Parker.
by Phil Gurnee on Feb 13, 2008 12:50 PM PST up reply actions
46.3% FG shooting last year
I don't remember one PG, SG or even SF really torching Shaun ever.
Re:
The FG% doesn't prove he has a jumper. If you think he has a jumper then we certainly have a difference of opinion on that issue. He might have a better outside shot Magic when he comes back since I hope he's spending every single minute practicing them but that doesn't mean he had one when he went down.
TC
This time I was replying to Jax who had concerns that he was getting bodied. I was just saying I didn't see it and you seem to agree.
That's a good point about FG% not being broken out by shot type. I would have two comments on that for you to think about. The first would be that I am less concerned with how a player scores and more that they are scoring efficiently. The second would be this does break it out. The stats in the "Shooting Details" box are where to look. The first link is to Shaun and the second to Corey. Shaun takes a larger percentage of jumpers compared to Maggs and hits them at a higher rate. This is good for both players since Corey's strength is obviously getting to the hoop and drawing fouls so you (at least I) don't want him falling in love with his jumper.
I'm definitely not saying Shaun has a great jumper. I am merely suggesting there may be some lag from the brickathon Shaun who we saw in 05-06 and the one who evolved to show up last year. And like you I hope he gets even better when he returns this year.
Bottom line
Don't extend him now. Just take one more year and see what's up. That's the luck and beauty of the situation. The rookie contract system at work. The real hard work will come after next season when he would be unrestricted. Noone could outbid the Clippers thanks to Bird rights. However, if Shaun explodes and the bidding is high, will the Clippers pay? For now thats a problem for a future time.
In the grand scheme, Shaun doesn't need to be better than the 4th best starter behind EB, Kaman and whoever is the perimeter scorer; assume Maggette. So ok he's not Chris Paul, but CP3 NEEDS to be the best player on that team or they are in trouble. Shaun, or whoever is the eventual point guard, just needs to be good enough, and I think Shaun has shown enough and has enough potential to be that and maybe much more.
As for what that means in the draft: I think the Clippers should just take best player available, regardless of position. If you want to stipulate that you would reach one or two slots to make sure you grab a PG or combo guard, I think that's very reasonable. I think reaching to make sure you get that guard and dropping down 5 or more is a bad decision. I don't think that significantly differs from what your original diary suggests and that's why I didn't have much to say until Shaun's value came under fire.
That said, I would prefer to see the Clippers use the draft pick in a package with Cassell to upgrade talent now. The Clippers are in a place to me where a mid- to low-lottery pick isn't necessarily going to help them. They are deep at every position, if not spectaculor at some, but they have bonafide NBA players 2 deep everywhere.
So if we are using the pick, I mostly agree with everyone.
Good points
Re:
When Livy went down last year I basically buried the team. When the emergence of Kaman and AI showing that for once Baylor did not blow the draft pick I dug up some of that dirt. Hopefully by next season I will need a bulldozer to help me dig up the rest.
4th pick...
Of course the problem is that we're talking about the 4th pick in a less than amazing draft, and certainly not the point guard bonanza that came up the next season with Paul and Deron Williams. Devin Harris was picked 5, and the Mavs are packaging him to acquire Jason Kidd - something the Clippers chose not to do last season with Livingston when Kidd was a year younger. Of course that was pre-knee-injury Shaun, but we've already said the injury thing is the unknown here. Or did you want Sebastian Telfair from that draft?
Do I hitch my wagon to Livingston at the point? The simple fact is that you can't wave a wand and get everything you want. With one first round pick, you get one player. I think finding shooting (in Mobley's replacement at the 2) is the higher priority - if Jerryd Bayless can realistically be that AND a point guard option, then that's just dreamy. But I think the 'home run' approach here is to assume Livingston is the starter at the point and work on other issues. And it goes without saying that the final two months of the season will add more information to this discussion.
The guy is 22. Look up the early NBA careers of Chauncey Billups and Steve Nash. Nash became the full time starter in Dallas in his fifth season at the age of 26. Billups was on his 5th team, in his 6th season, and also 26 before he was a full time starter. It's WAY too early to give up on Livingston. Sign him to the qualifying offer and get another year of data. (If he'd be willing to take more years for less money, I'd do that. Something like 3 years/$10M.)
by Steve Perrin on Feb 13, 2008 4:11 PM PST up reply actions
Re:
Your right about the draft. It wasn't a great draft but that is the Clipper way. Number one pick we get Candyass. Spurs get Duncan.
Until we know our draft position and who is going to be available I find the draft speculation pointless. I only joined in the conversation because of other points.
Agree with Toycannon
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