The season is still two months away, but most of the rosters are set, barring the requisite Michael Jordan comeback rumor (just kidding, but only a little).  We have an idea where our team stands, but we can't really know unless we discuss everyone else.  In that spirit, I'm going to throw up a "competition discussion" thread for each of the other 29 teams over the next month or so.  We'll go in alphabetical order from A to Z.  Today's team: Atlanta.

Last year's record: 37-45
Playoffs: Lost to Boston 4-3

In: Maurice Evans, Randolph Morris, Flip Murray, Thomas Gardner
Out: Josh Childress

Projected starting lineup: Mike Bibby, Joe Johnson, Marvin Williams, Josh Smith, Al Horford

Key themes:

• How will they replace Josh Childress?
• Can a full season of Mike Bibby improve the half-court offense?
• What happens to Mike Woodson if the team starts slowly?
• Will Josh Smith park his butt on the block instead of shooting tons of threes?
• Does Al Horford take the next step?
• Who else on the bench will emerge as a key man?

I'll have more in an hour.  Discuss and predict for now.

[UPDATE, 11:17 a.m.]: Got sidetracked last night, so I never ended up finishing this post.  Here goes.

Boston series aside, let's all take a deep breath and remember that Atlanta won just 37 games last year.  Don't give me the "that's not fair, they didn't have Mike Bibby for 82 games" excuse: they were 23-28 before the trade, 15-17 after it.  They did push the Celtics to seven games, but all four of Boston's wins were blowouts, while all three of Atlanta's wins were close games.  If we go by point differential, which is the best way to weed out the random variation and truly account for a team's strength, Atlanta didn't even impress in the playoffs.

Now, take that team and subtract Josh Childress.  Hollinger loving aside, Childress is a very key loss for that Hawks team.  Besides Josh Smith and Joe Johnson, Childress was probably Atlanta's best player.  He was second in PER, posted insane shooting percentages (59 eFG%, 64.7 TS%) and, to top it off, was a very solid defender.  More importantly, Childress was an outstanding cutter, perhaps the only guy in Atlanta's main rotation that was even competent moving without the ball.  Maurice Evans cannot possibly replace all of that.

The last point is key.  Despite all their athletes, Atlanta played at just the 17th-fastest pace in the league last year.  They were dynamic in transition, but didn't run enough, partially because they were only mediocre defensively and partially because they were a bad defensive rebounding team (sixth-worst in basketball).  That meant there were a lot more half-court sets than it seemed, and Childress was great at finding space in those situations.  Now, expect to see a lot of Joe Johnson going one-on-one, Mike Bibby shooting ill-advised quick jumpers and Josh Smith floating to the perimeter.

Atlanta's young guys should all get better, particularly Al Horford, who should have been playing more minutes last year.  But combine Childress' loss with the return of Mike Woodson, and this team is almost certainly going to be worse.

Prediction: 35-47, 4th in Southeast, 10th in Eastern Conference

It's almost Labor Day, which means we can actually see the next NBA season on the horizon.  I don't know about you, but this summer has felt longer than any other I've blogged through (to be fair, there's only one other choice here). 

Nevertheless, we're close to the season, and there are many readers here that weren't around last year.  There are a few running things we like to do here before the start of the season that you all might not know:

1.  Competition Discussions

While we're Wizards fans, we're also NBA fans, and that means looking at how the rest of the league stacks up.  Some have already started making predictions, so it's probably time to get started on our quick look at other teams. 

Every couple days or so from now until the start of the season, I'll post a "competition discussion" thread for each of the other 29 teams in the league.  I'll recap the teams' offseason moves and make a quick predicition, and you all follow suit in the comments.  A year later, we can look at how smart or silly we were and laugh at ourselves. 

More importantly, every time there's a game thread against that team, I'll link our competition discussion so that we even know how we're doing on our predictions during the season.  How's that for instant gratification?

We didn't get through everyone last year because we started too late, so this project will probably begin very soon (i.e. later today).

Oh, and as far as predicting the Wizards?  Every year, CelticsBlog rounds up a bunch of bloggers to write a season preview for their respective teams.  I just got the e-mail yesterday, so the project will happen again.  I usually like to incorporate as many people's thoughts as possible, so I'll probably post an open thread for ideas.  Here's what our preview looked like last year.

2.  Community projections

A similar idea to the above concept, but instead of predicting other teams, we'll have threads where we predict the statistics of our players.  We'll go one player at a time, starting with the bench guys and moving up to the stars.  You can predict as many stats as you want, so if you'd like to predict what you think Oleksiy Pecherov's assist rate will be next season, be my guest.

3.  Top 10 themes countdown

This is something new.  Remember how I asked you guys to list what you felt were the 10 most important factors that will determine the success of the 2008/09 season?  I'm going to consult that list and come up with a master list of 10 things that will determine the Wizards' success.  We'll count those themes down in 10 threads, starting with number 10 and going down to number one.  That'll make things easier for us when we think about writing our season preview.

I'm sure there's more stuff we're doing, but I have to run to class.  If there's something I missed, let me know.

Editor's Note: I'm back in college, so expect regular posts starting now.  Only thing is that I'm off Sunday and Monday throughout the school year.  Jake and Truth are in charge those days. -PM

While I was scrambling moving into my new apartment, I got an e-mail from blogmaster Matt Moore of Ridiculous Upside and Hardwood Paroxysm about the blogosphere's new Rug Burn tournament pitting the worst players on each team against each other.  Matt's request to all bloggers was to find "the absolute biggest waste of space on your roster" and make the case for him winning the tournament.

In past years, this would have been very easy for me to do.  After all, this is a franchise notorious for keeping underachievers on its payroll.  As recently as 2006/07, Michael Ruffin and Jarvis Hayes were members of this team, but going back further brings to mind names like Jahidi White, Harvey Grant (the second stint), Isaac Austin, Mitchell Butler, Lorenzo Williams, Darvin Ham, old Rod Strickland, old Mitch Richmond and, of course, Kwame.  Hell, back in the day, our franchise would have dominated this tournament.

But as I thought about which player on the current Wizards fits the bill, I couldn't come up with a name.  Oleksiy Pecherov and Dominic McGuire struggled mightly last year, but they're young, hard-working and offer the potential to improve.  Etan Thomas has an awful contract and feuds with our team's most underrated player, but when he was last healthy in 2006/07, he had an above-average PER and was the team's strongest rebounder.  Darius Songaila has a long-term contract and plays the same position as our top prospect, but it's not like his contract is an albatross (not to mention that he played really well down the stretch last year). 

Ernie Grunfeld deserves credit for this.  Even when he's overpaid for role players, he's made sure to do so on guys who remain productive.  More importantly, instead of filling the end of the bench with veterans who can't play (Ruffin, Calvin Booth, etc.), he's injected much-needed youth and potential into the unit.  Who knows how Nick Young, Pech, McGuire and Andray Blatche will develop, but it's much more likely that they will become impact players who can help a team than someone like an old Ruffin or Booth.  Those vets are nice to have around, but they contribute little on the court. 

So as you follow this tournament and listen to fans debate the "merits" of Brian Cardinal and Jerome James, remember to appreciate what a competent GM has meant for this franchise.

Editor's Note: Here's your post-game reaction thread for the Gold Medal game.  I watched a good chunk of it late last night, and I have to say, it was probably the best Olympic game I've ever seen.  The quality of play was just spectacular all the way around.  It definitely made me a little sad, though, to see Juan Carlos Navarro play so well. 

If you haven't watched the game and don't want to know what happened, steer away from this thread.  -PM

With only one Wizard (Darius Songaila) playing for his home country in the Beijing Olympics, I wasn't planning on having too much coverage on this site.  To me, it seems akin to spending two weeks analyzing other NBA teams, and while that happens from time to time, this is first and foremost a Wizards blog.

Still, it is basketball and many of you are going to be watching, so we can't be completely silent when it comes to the Olympic Games.  Therefore, I'm opening this thread for any discussion about the lead-up to Beijing and the Olympics themselves. 

For more Olympic coverage, I strongly encourage folks to check out At The Hive and Green Bandwagon, who have been writing biographies for each of the teams.

Ah yes, our seven-man smorgasbord of veterans with faults and unproven youngsters.  Depending on who you ask, this unit may or may not need to be consolidated or upgraded, but for the time being, it's what we've got.

And what, exactly, do we have?  We have two solid starters, one that's an absolute ace offensively and normally a sieve defensively and one that's awkward offensively and an underrated presence defensively.  We have two veterans who are limited, but are trusted by the coach even when they are blocking players who deserve some of their minutes.  Then, we have three young guys, all with the potential of being a difference maker, but all projects that need playing time despite being in different stages of their development.  

You don't have to be Eddie Jordan to have trouble allocating 96 minutes a game to this group.  (Though he's particularly "good" at it).  

There are so many trade-offs to consider.  Play Etan Thomas for his rebounding...but do so at the expense of Brendan Haywood's defense and (maybe) attitude.  Play Darius Songaila for his offensive smarts...but do so at the expense of Andray Blatche's much-needed development.  Play Antawn Jamison 40 minutes a night for his essential all-around contributions...but do so at the expense of providing developmental minutes to Blatche, JaVale McGee and Oleksiy Pecherov, projects drafted to eventually replace him.

96 minutes, seven guys, all power forwards or centers. How would you specifically allocate the minutes? 

Some considerations:

• Last year, only Jamison played more than 20 percent of the team's minutes at a position other than power forward or center.  Otherwise, these guys were exclusively playing the 4 or the 5. 
• In 2006/07, when Haywood played more than 25 minutes in a game, the Wizards were 18-8.
• According to Basketballvalue.com, Darius Songaila had the second-highest adjusted plus/minus on the team last year, behind only Jamison.  
• The highest PER of any reserve on the team last year belonged to Andray Blatche at 15.5.  In 2006/07, that honor belonged to Etan Thomas.
• To review: Though Haywood has never posted a higher defensive rebound percentage than Thomas in a year both played, the team's defensive efficiency has always been better with Haywood on the floor instead of Thomas.  

Good luck!

Previously:

• Etan Thomas
• Oleksiy Pecherov
• Dominic McGuire
• Nick Young
• Andray Blatche
• Roger Mason
• Darius Songaila
• Antonio Daniels
• DeShawn Stevenson
• Brendan Haywood
• Gilbert Arenas
• Antawn Jamison

Stats: Per-game: 39.9 minutes, 20.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 2.2 steals in 58 games.

Per-36: 18.4 points, 6 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 2 steals.

Percentages: 46.6 FG%, 35.7 3PT%, 90.1 FT%, 50.1 eFG%, 55.8 TS%

Advanced (explanations): 20.7 PER, 21.9 AST%, 9.8 REB%, 12.4 TO%, 24 UsgR, 113 ORtg, 107 DRtg, 7 WSAA (win score above average).

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pradamaster: If 2006/07 was a breakout year for Caron Butler, then the beginning of the 2007/08 season was a stratospheric rise.  There were several reasons why the Wizards were able to survive Gilbert Arenas' injury in the first half of the season, but none were greater than Butler's emergence.  He was shooting at a ridiculous clip, having extended his range out to the three-point line, and was still doing all the other things that have contributed to his Tuff Juice moniker. 

Then, he injured his hip and missed several games.  When he came back, he wasn't anywhere near the same player he was in the first three months of the season, though to his credit he was still an extremely valuable player that showed tremendous growth from the end of his 2006/07 season.  His postseason performance was very uneven, with superb performances in Games 3 and 5 (both Wizards wins) and poor performances in the other four contests.  For the second straight year, Butler started strong and faded down the stretch. 

Still, we shouldn't discount the ways in which Caron Butler improved this season.  On the court, his offensive game became much more well-rounded, particularly in the half court.  Off the court, Butler began to emerge as a vocal leader, which is key because he's the one guy on the team who can really back up strong words with his actions.  Both will serve the team well as Arenas gets reintegrated with the team.

The narrative we've been using to describe Butler's offensive improvement mostly centers around his improved shooting, but that doesn't even begin to tell the whole story.  In fact, while there's no doubt Butler significantly improved his shooting range, the only time that it made a direct difference was during early parts of the season.  Through the first month of the season, Butler was shooting 54 percent from three-point range while sporting a 63% true shooting percentage.  He never shot better than 35 percent from three-point range in subsequent months.  Clearly, the threat of Butler shooting threes helped his offensive game, but his percentages were fairly pedestrian in every other month.

In reality, it was the improvement of Butler's passing skills that made a major difference.  His assist percentage rose to 21.9 percent this year, easily surpassing his 15.9 percent mark of 2006/07.  He also cut his turnover rate down from 13.9 percent in 06/07 to 12.4 percent last year.  His improvement was reflected in more than assists and turnovers, though.  For the first time in his career, Butler was running high pick and rolls, the default play designed for your best scorer to create an opportunity for himself or somebody else.  He also showed a ton of patience when double-teams arrived, kicking the ball to an open shooter instead of forcing something.  These skills are key if the Wizards are to accomplish their goal (or what should be their goal) of Arenas using fewer possessions.  Butler was mostly a finisher in the past, but his development as an initiator should mean fewer possessions that end with Arenas shooting a contested 18-footer. 

As good as Butler was this season, though, he really showed that he simply isn't quite good enough to be the number one option on a great team.  Oh sure, he can be for a game, like Game 5 against Cleveland or even a month, like he was in November, but there are just too many flaws that prevent him from doing it consistently.  For one, he just doesn't get to the free throw line enough.  He attempted just 4.1 free throws/36 minutes this year, and his free throws made per shot attempt placed him behind or on the same level renown slashers like Raymond Felton, Stephen Jackson, Marvin Williams and Ben Gordon.  This doesn't really jive with the Tuff Juice persona, but Butler is essentially a jump-shooter offensively.  That inability to get into the lane makes it much easier for teams to completely take him out of the game, as Cleveland did in Game 6. 

For another, his durability is concerning.  For the second straight season, Butler set a career high in minutes per game, and for the second straight season, a nagging injury kept him out of several games and limited him once he returned.  Durability can be a funny thing -- Marcus Camby, once the poster boy for fragility, has only missed 15 games in the last two years -- but it's concerning to see Butler break down again with an increased workload.  If there's one guy who needs to see his minutes cut as a precautionary measure, it's Butler, because he's played in at least 68 games every year before the last two, when his minutes jumped to over 39 a game.  You can't really have that from your number one scoring option over the long haul.

Essentially, he's in a perfect position to be a second option alongside Arenas, and I wouldn't have it any other way.  His persona and his game are complete opposites of Arenas', which is how it should be.  He should be a jump-shooter if Arenas is the one driving to the basket.  He should be the guy to lead by example if Arenas is going to continue to be the loony one, though I wish Butler would use words more often to back up his actions.  He should be a secondary offensive initiator that can allow Arenas to save his energy for defense. 

I don't want Butler to be Arenas, and I don't really want Arenas to be Butler.  In a pinch, we saw last year that Butler has the capability to at least come close to doing the things Arenas does well, but we also saw that Butler can't duplicate Arenas over the long run.  If both players just go back to being themselves, I can't think of too many duos that I'd rather have as franchise cornerstones.

JakeTheSnake: When it comes to talking about Caron Butler this season, the first thing that comes to mind is a stat that was used a lot by reporters, but I think still bears mentioning.  Only four players averaged 20 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assists last season: LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Vince Carter and Caron Butler.  Say what you want about VC, but that's some pretty elite company that Caron finds himself in, and considering that he made that group with a lower usage rate than the other three, it makes the accomplishment that much more impressive.  Clearly, Tuff Juice has arrived as a star in this league.

It's funny, because last year I thought Caron had reached his peak level as a borderline All-Star/excellent second banana type player, but he took it to another level this year, thanks in part to his increased outside shooting.  In their season preview, ESPN said that Caron was one of the most effective forwards in the league from 18 feet in.  Now you can safely say that Caron is one of the most effective forwards in the league from just about anywhere.  The first month of the season, Caron shot a ridiculous 54.3% from beyond the arc while everyone was still using last year's scouting report on him.  As the year progressed and teams took notice of his increased range, his percentages went down, but even still they were better than his shooting percentages in previous years.

The one downside to Caron's increased range is that it means he's not taking it to the rack as much.  His 4.1 FTA's per 36 were the second lowest of his career.  Part of that is the result of not having Gilbert around to create more driving lanes, but we also have to remember that Caron has to preserve his body as well.  To expect him to increase his trips to the charity stripe and expect him to stay injury free is a fleeting hope at best.  Sure, it might not seem like a very Tough Juice thing to do, but if we don't want him to turn into a walking injury by age 33, we have to get used to him relying on his mid-range game and his outside shot a little more.

With that said, Caron's still a few years away from the Michael-Jordan-all-I-shoot-is-fadeaways stage, so there will still be plenty of Caronimo! moments to enjoy this upcoming season.  I would say that we should expect a lot of what we saw last season again, but if Caron showed me anything last season, it's that he doesn't have a ceiling.

Oh, and in case anyone was wondering:  Caron without headband > Caron with headband.

Truthaboutit: People will remember '07-08 as the year when Caron Butler first stepped forward and showed that he could put a team on his back and lead to victory.

Sure he was an All-Star in the previous season, but what does that mean? Don't get me wrong, I am far from discrediting the accolade. But in that instance, the door was simply open to any naysayers to opine that Butler's merits were the result of playing alongside budding superstar, Gilbert Arenas. By the way, I am not one of these naysayers, Caron earned every bit of his '06-07 All-Star selection himself.

At the same time, things come easier when opposing defenses place a brunt of their focus on a teammate. How would Caron respond with the Agent Zero comfort blanket pulled out from under him?

Fortunately, and unfortunately, Wizards fans were granted the opportunity to see just what kind of special player they had in Butler with Arenas only appearing in eight inconsistent games in the '07-08 season's early going.

Before the All-Star break, Butler averaged 21.4 points, 6.8 boards, 4.5 assists, 2.4 steals on 47.6% from the field and 91.3% from the free-throw line. His season totals were all career highs save for rebounds. Also add Butler to the list of those helped by shooting coach Dave Hopla as his 66 made threes on the season were a 61% increase over his previous career high and his 90.1 FT% was 6th in the NBA.

Butler's 20.95 PER was good enough for 22nd in the league, according to KnickerBlogger.Net, and 82games.com tells us that Butler was one of the top 15 clutch players in the league...."clutch" meaning average points scored per 48 minutes of clutch time which is under 5 minutes left in the 4th quarter or overtime of a game where neither team holds a lead greater than five points. He was also 8th in the league in Inside FG%......if Tuff Juice got into the paint, you could pretty much count the bucket.

One would almost think that Caron Butler is perfect....well, he's not. If there's one beef I had with Butler is that he settled for mid-range shots too much. Dude has a decent sized body, and often seemed to be matched up against smaller players. I'd like to see Butler increase his mid-range post game workload, and draw more fouls leading to trips to the FT line. As much as he is counted on to score, Butler needs to boost that 9% foul draw percentage.

Overall, I'm ecstatic that Caron Butler came into his own. I sleep better at night knowing that he, along with Jamison, are the true heart and soul of the team, and that Butler is locked up for a reasonable three more years at $30 million. But those who thought that Ernie Grunfeld should have gotten rid of Gilbert Arenas and built around Caron Butler were severely kidding themselves.

In the long run, teams with championship hopes need scorers with killer instinct such as Arenas. Not saying that Gilbert is a sure thing, but he was the best option under the given circumstances. I'm also not saying that Caron doesn't have killer instinct, but he can't do it alone. A team with Caron as the best scorer will not go far when it counts.

Just take a look at Butler's scoring stats versus Poor (24.3), Average (18.0), and Good (17.4) teams. It's nice that he's 9th in the league in scoring against Poor teams, but we need the effort to be sustained versus the best of the best. [For the record, Kobe scored 27.5 against Poor, 27.4 against Average, and 30.0 against Good; Paul Pierce scored 17.8 against Poor, 19.9 against Average, and 22.0 against Good.]

Yes, Caron was a big reason as to why the Wizards made the playoffs without Arenas. However, it's my opinion that Caron is more of a James Worthy type player who, while more than integral to a championship run, is not going to lead his team to a ring. That's not to say that Caron can't be "the" team leader.....I'd rather him play that role more than anyone else. Plus, everyone could use a shot of Tuff Juice before games.

Addendum:

I'd be remiss if I did not mention Caron Butler's injury....and I can't believe I neglected to do so when it was on my mind. He missed the five games before the All-Star break, and came back about a month later when most thought that his left hip labral tear would keep him out for the season.

Butler's post injury numbers certainly dropped off across the board.....well, his assists went up. We could all tell that the injury affected him to some degree, how much, we'll never know. Why? Because Caron Butler never said a word about it. He's the type of person, as we've come to find out, who would never even consider playing the injury card. And it's because of this, more than anything else he's done on the court, that I've gained the utmost respect for Butler.

Like I've said, a team can't win a championship without a scorer akin to Gilbert Arenas, but at the same time, a team certainly won't get a banner without someone like Caron Butler.

With little going on with the Wizards, I've been trying to keep tabs on what little NBA tidbits are out there.  The major story regarding the NBA itself right now is the restricted free agency "negotiation" of Chicago's Ben Gordon, which has been well-documented by Blogabull.  There's too much to take in it one sentence, but to summarize: Gordon rejects 5/50 last offseason, Bulls re-sign Luol Deng, Gordon says he wants to be paid like the leading scorer on the team, Bulls offer 6/59 but no more because of the luxury tax, Gordon talks about how he and the Bulls have no future. 

Gordon's status on the Bulls seems kind of similar to Gilbert Arenas', though Arenas is clearly the better and more important player.  Both are seen as shoot-first gunners who aren't really point guards, but are too "small" to be shooting guards.  Both had their reputations hurt last season -- Arenas because the Wizards did fairly well with him injured, Gordon because he had his worst season and the Bulls plummeted.  Both were seen as focal points of their teams' rebuilding projects, but in light of recent events, some were calling both expendable and unworthy of a long-term commitment. 

Yet where the Wizards stroked Gilbert's ego and got him to take less money than necessary, the Bulls have taken the hard line on Gordon.  They aren't budging on their 6 year/59 million dollar offer, which I find somewhat interesting because while such a contract puts them up against the luxury tax, such considerations didn't stop them from dolling out large contracts for Andres Nocioni, Kirk Hinrich and Deng.  In response, Gordon has made some ridiculous public statements, saying he won't take the qualifying offer even though there's really no alternative.

Whether the Bulls or Wizards handled their negotiations correctly isn't exactly the point of this post (I'm definitely wary of paying Gordon as much as he seems to want), but I've always wondered what would have happened if the Bulls made it clear to Gordon that he was, in different words, "their guy," as the Wizards did with Arenas.  Would Gordon have dropped his "pay me like I'm the leading scorer" edict and taken less money if he felt more loved?  If the Bulls didn't keep pulling him on and off the bench, would he have been more inclined to take an offer like 6/59? 

Better yet, what if the Wizards had adopted the Bulls' stance on Arenas?  What if Ernie Grunfeld didn't stroke Gilbert's ego by immediately offering the max and pleading with him to take a bit of a discount?  Would Gilbert have still been here?  Would he have taken Golden State's max contract offer and left?  Would he have made several public statements, but ultimately re-sign and use it as motivation? 

No matter what, I'd rather have my guy locked up, even if it means paying him a little more than he might be worth.  In the short run, if the Bulls lose Gordon, they will be a worse team because there is nobody who can score.  In the long run, maybe they'll be better, but that's asking for two more years of what-ifs.  The Wizards don't have to worry about what-ifs necessarily, and for that, I'm happy Ernie negotiated in the way he did.