Coming off the five day layoff the Clippers had hoped to get some key guys healthy, but instead they wind up playing their first game since Nov. 24 without the services of Zach Randolph.  Before the game we learned that Dallas would be without their own leading scorer in Dirk Nowitzki (serving a one game suspension), but unfortunately the Mavs didn’t miss him much today, and operated like a professional team on a business trip, while the Clippers continued a trend of (3) bad losses that started in Milwaukee last Saturday.  There have been some valid excuses (dead-tired starters, w/out Camby, w/out Randolph), but we’ve seen how better teams like San Antonio, Utah, and Dallas today have competed without their star players so far this season, and we don't seem nearly as capable. 

The 1st Quarter: To say that the Clippers got off to a sluggish start today would be a gross understatement.  Unfortunately for the Clips; when two evenly matched teams mix it up (the line was LAC by 1), the game can often be decided early, and today Dallas easily reached a double digit lead within a few minutes.  On offense, I’m not sure the Clippers have looked worse all season, taking turns shooting a string of contested jumpers, while having no answer for Josh Howard and the Mavs’ efficient offense.  To put it in perspective, after over seven minutes of play, Marcus Camby was our only scorer, with six points.  After the 1st quarter was over, he accounted for eight of our thirteen points.  Mavericks 24, Clippers 13.  Dunleavy’s 1st timeout comes with 5:48 remaining. 

The most encouraging part of the game came early in the 2nd quarter, where the improbable lineup of Jason Hart, Eric Gordon, Fred Jones, Al Thornton & DeAndre cut the lead to two about midway through the quarter.  Hart’s aggressive play really stood out, Gordon was creating & executing, while the new acquisition Fred Jones was showing more than competent play, highlighted by a “look what I found” deflection that he took coast to coast for an impressive layup. What’s also notable is that DeAndre Jordan is on the floor again during an explosive come from behind run.  Coming out of Dallas’ timeout, it’s clear that the momentum isn’t carrying forward.  BD finally checks in with 4:21 left, Clippers down six.  His uninspired play continues, and the Clippers give up the rest of their gains from earlier in the quarter.  Mavericks 45, Clippers 34.  Baron Davis zero (0) points at the half. 

The second half began and ended in a see-saw fashion that featured some more spirited play from Baron Davis, but the Clippers only threaten to fully come back, and can never string big plays together in order to make it happen.  Dallas makes it all the more difficult by completely dominating the glass. 

Finishing at 41.7% from the field, Dallas didn’t shoot particularly well, but they made up for it in rebounding (53-38), three’s (9-22), minimizing turnovers (7), and making their free throws (19-21).  The Clippers poor shooting (38%) can be attributed to the lack of a post presence and their overall inability to attack the rim while being unable to hit from outside.  Another way to sum up this game was that Dallas had Josh Howard (29/9 & 7 assists), and the Clippers couldn't stop him, or counter with a player of his caliber tonight.

The unexpected output from the bench (22 points) was a welcome surprise for the Clippers, and was the only reason the game was competitive in the 2nd and 3rd quarters.  Fred Jones looks like a solid addition, and Mardy Collins looked like he might be beginning to carve out his role on the team, converting on his first three inside shot attempts, but on his fourth attempt he hogged the ball badly and forced up a shot that was blocked, resulting in one of the ugliest possessions of the night.

The Clippers have proven to be a decent team with Randolph at full strength (6-6), and among the worst in the league without (2-15), but still there was some room for optimism for those who remembered that our first win of the season came against Dallas at home.  As it turned out, with the exception of Camby (16/12 & 5 blocks), the Clipper starters didn’t show up tonight.  BD was about as bad as we’ve seen, EJ had it going in the 2nd quarter, but struggled in the 2nd half.  He got tripped up on a number of plays trying to drive, and got stuffed on a transition layup where he should have passed to his wing-mate. Thorton favored the jumper, in going 3 of 9 from the outside, and 3 of 6 from close.  The revolving door at Power Forward was mixed between below average and worse.    

Next up: Visiting Sacramento on Wednesday, and hosting Philadelphia on NYE. 

Obviously, there are a lot of concerns with our team right now, and with the playoffs becoming more and more of an impossibility, the focus of this veteran-laden team is hard to figure going forward. 

Blowout Losses: 6  LAL(38), Utah(22), Utah(16), LAL(18), GS(18), NJ(17)

All the blowout losses were a result of being over-matched.  It was fun to take the Lakers into the 4th quarter on equal terms, but it never felt like we would win that game.  At least, we haven't been blown out w/ ZBO in the mix, but tonight will be our first opportunity, depending on how the team responds to last night's catastrophe.

Mid-Range Losses: 2  HOU(9), NO(12)

In the HOU & NO games we kept within striking distance, but just couldn't overcome early deficits.  The New Orleans game easily could've been a blowout if EJ didn't start.

Close Losses: 6  DEN(10-OT), SAC(5), SA(3), DEN(1), PHI(1), DAL(2)

These are the tough losses that have made a bad start extra painful.  In 3 out of the 6, we really didn't have any business winning considering how we played...we showed the ability to get back into the game, however we couldn't deliver the knockout punch at the end, SAC(5), SA(3), DEN(1).  In 2 of the games, PHI(1), DAL(2), we pretty much controlled the game on the road only to falter at the end.  Most of these games were fated by a wild shot and/or a late TO from BD.  BD can't be blamed for the Denver OT loss, as he was injured in the 2nd quarter.

Close Wins: 1 

Equally as disturbing as the 2 road games we let slip away was the Miami home game over the weekend.  We did a good job of staying with Miami all game, and finally took control late in the 4th quarter.  We were all counting the win, until the game simply got closer than we wanted it to be at the end when it looked like we would be forced to make free throws on our final possession.  Until BD throws away the entry pass and we waited for the officials to decide our fate.  A clutch defensive stand saves the game. 

Mid-Range Wins: 1

Our first win against Dallas at home.  The Clippers actually managed to take control of the game early and hold on for the win, leading throughout the 4th quarter. 

Blowout Wins: 1

Looking like disaster early on, the Clippers caught fire late in the 2nd quarter, and carried it into the 2nd half where OKC's front line was exposed in a major way. 

What Could Have Been

All total we're 1-6 in close games, and I count at least 3 games that we gave away at the end, and 3 in which we were able to come back at the very end but not finish.  Simply taking care of business puts this ball club at 6-11, and finding more at the end of some rally's gets us to 7-10, or 8-9.  But it hasn't been done, so much so that a slightly sub .500 team for the first 40+ minutes of games manages to go 3-14 for the first 17 games of the season. 

Adjustments?

Obviously, adjustments have to be made at this point, especially considering last nights game was the worst of the year.  A constant theme has been BD's inability to create and poor decision making, and the coaches inability to implement structure in final possessions.  You could also argue that game management has hurt the club in this area.  When Hughes had his turn to coach, he gave the bench more minutes, which gave us an energy edge late in the game to tie it up.  Things are looking better with Randolph and Gordon  joining the starting lineup, and may get even better if Kaman can come back at full strength, but until we learn how to play coherently late in the game, it's not going to matter.  Maybe we could fly Sam Cassell down to L.A. for weekend courses?

While it's true that the bulk of our salary is being spent on 4 players; PG, PF, C, C., an obvious question comes to mind, shouldn't we be spending more on our SG & SF positions? 

The simple answer is not necessarily, because right now we have the luxury of not having to pay for talent at SG & SF because the two current starters there are under rookie contracts.  It would appear that EJ is in greater danger to lose playing time if he were to struggle because he's a true rookie, he's already been passed over by Davis(2), and the newly acquired Collins will probably be getting a shot to prove his meddle.  But as we all know, the only option Clipper Nation can be happy about is for EJ to take this opportunity and run with it, while avoiding injury.  If he does go down, we have bodies to replace him, but obviously not the same talent or upside.  As it is now, we have a rotation of Mike Taylor (who would move BD to SG), Davis(2), Mardy Collins, & Steve Novak to back up these spots if EJ or Thornton were to go down or struggle.  These back-up options aren’t pretty, but if EJ & Thornton can fill their roles, we should be looking pretty good, or at least a lot better.

As it will most likely play out, our 6th man and co-team captain (Camby), happens to be a Center.  He also is being paid heftily for this year and next to potentially be our 6th man.  Those statements alone have caused a lot of people to speculate about another trade being in the works, but there are plenty of reasons why they wouldn't deal one of their two centers right now.

1. They just created a rare front court power:  By acquiring Randolph, they’ll now have a consistent low post threat, and a #1 scoring option for BD to look to.  This takes a lot of pressure off of Kaman, and will allow him to concentrate more on help D, and getting better looks underneath. Camby will provide similar support to Randolph when they play together, helping to account for Randolph’s weak D, but he’ll also provide true veteran leadership and guidance to our younger bigs, namely Kaman & DeAndre Jordan.  On paper, Camby looks like he’s a commodity, but he could go a long way toward developing talent if Nene’s success is any indication. 

2. PF & C Quality for 48 minutes: The beauty of this front court situation is that a quality starter can be occupying the PF & C positions for 48 minutes a game if all three can manage to stay healthy.  Playing Camby 28-30 minutes, leaves 33-34 minutes for Kaman & Randolph, which are reasonable starter minutes.  And if Randolph can prove to effectively spell Thornton at the 3 for a few minutes a game, so much the better.  Trading a Center now for a wing might fill our current weakness at the 2 & 3, but it would also create the same weakness up front if we’d have to rely more on Skinner & Davis(3), plus it could block the development of EJ and/or Thornton. One could argue that in this scenario, Skinner, Davis(3), & DeAndre provide better depth at PF & C than Taylor, Davis(2), Collins, Novak, & possibly Randolph do currently, but the jury’s still out for now. 

3. After a Flurry of changes, some stability and evaluation is necessary.  This doesn’t mean that the Clippers wont make a move later on, perhaps in the off-season, or later on next year if this doesn’t work out or if DeAndre begins to make one of these guys expendable. Of course, that’s unlikely to happen this year. 

So after a brutal start to the season, I have to welcome this move simply because the team we started with simply wasn’t getting it done.  Randolph finally gives BD a reliable 1st option on offense as he clearly couldn’t trust Kaman or Thornton before.  Kaman should now find even easier looks, and Thornton should be used more exclusively on transition, making BD himself and EJ the primary 3 pt. threats.  Defense will be more of a challenge, but I think we'll see more activity and commitment on defense all around once the team knows it has a better chance of winning. 

In the wake of the trade, it's going to be really interesting to see what kind of lineups Dunleavy goes with.  The two main issues now are filling the shooting guard spot, and balancing the big three PF/C's.

As of right now, I'm fine with letting Eric Gordon develop at his natural position that the trade left wide open.  There will be some growing pains, but he's shown he can get to the line (and make his free throws), and gives a good effort on D. 

As for the big three; Randolph, Kaman, Camby.  We have three above average bigs now, and the only feeling I have right now without the benefit of seeing them play together is that Camby should come off the bench to start since his minutes need to be limited anyway.  I'm open to whatever works, but here's how I'd divy up the playing time (on average) going forward:

PG: Baron(34), Taylor(12), Hart (2)

SG: Gordon(30), Taylor/New Guy/Whoever else we pick up(18)

SF: Thornton(33), Randolph(10), Novak(5)

PF: Randolph(24), Camby(14), Skinner/P.Davis(10)

C: Kaman(34), Camby(16)

*Ship Ricky Davis out of town ASAP!

How about a win on Sunday?  I had a feeling we'd get on the board last night, but Dallas is a much softer opponent, and it looks like they may be at a severe disadvantage with Josh Howard limited.

From the Dallas Morning News: http://mavsblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2008/11/josh-howard-injures-wrist.html

The Mavs haven't looked very good anyway, but if he doesn't play this could go a long way towards helping us get our first victory.  He's easily their 2nd best player, and they really don't have a lot of options on offense, unlike the Lakers, Jazz, & Rockets.

A great place for sports news.  I've been using this site for the last few years as I'm sure many of you claim it as well.  But today I saw (for the first time) them list Clipsnation as a news source.  Pretty cool...

Marcus Camby-F/C- Clippers Nov. 3 - 9:44 am et
		Marcus Camby (bruised heel) is questionable for Monday's game against the Jazz, while Baron Davis (hip) is still doubtful. Camby's has a reputation for excrutiating game-time decisions, but he has been targeting this game for his return all along. With four games on the slate it's probably safe to roll with the Camby-man. Source: ClipsNation.com

I think we can pretty much agree that last night the 2nd unit looked miserable beyond belief.  What changes would you make?

One thing I'd like to see is leadership.  Hart doesn't have that.  Taylor has more energy than leadership, so I think Mobley has to be out there to lead it.  He can start the game, and play half the time with the 1st unit, and then come in to lead the 2nd unit. That said, here's my ideal 2nd unit.

PG- Mike Taylor

SG-Eric Gordon

SF-Cuttino Mobley

PF-Tim Thomas (Once Camby gets back)

C-DeAndre Jordan

Starters:

PG-Baron Davis

SG-Ricky Davis

SF-Al Thornton

PF-Chris Kaman

C-Marcus Camby

In case you didn't notice, Philly went down to Toronto in their 1st game today.  The East may have an easier road to the playoffs than the West, but when you look at it, it's definitely gotten a lot more competitive recently.

It probably wont happen, but it's conceivable that Philly wont be in the playoffs this year if they somehow don't click.  They've done well as the underdog in past years, but now there are expectations, plenty of them.  I have Philly as the 6th seed right now, but there's only one team I can pretty much throw out in the whole conference. In the West there's about four (OKC, Sacramento, Minnesota, Memphis).

1.Boston
2.Cleveland
3.Detroit
4.Orlando
5.Toronto

6.Philadelphia
7.Atlanta
8.Chicago
9.Washington

10. Miami

Also ran: New Jersey, New York, Indy, Milwaukee

X: Charlotte

Now that we have the Baron prognosis, (and can all breathe again) I've been meaning to touch on a few things that I haven't seen much ink on.

Kaman's pre-season play: I lost the link, but Kaman was quoted as saying something to the effect that he "didn't know people would be playing that hard in the preseason, so that's on me."  This of course is a positive sign, as some of us expected he might be dogging it out of the gate a bit, now that he's a "vet". 

Time-share at Bu-PG: Jason Hart and Mike Taylor were given equal minutes the other night, which looks like a level-headed approach by Dunleavy right now.

A lot of 3 pt. Shooting: With the likes of Ricky Davis, Eric Gordon, Mobley, Thornton, Tim Thomas, Baron, & Novak we look to have more 3 pt. shooters than ever.  I kind of worry if we'll rely too much on the 3 this year, but one thing's for sure, we've never had this much range. This should create a lot of spacing on offense, and work to our advantage overall if we can keep it in balance. 

It's no secret that in order for an NBA team to get to the Finals, they usually need one of the best players in the game surrounded by a competent supporting cast, a group of multiple all-stars, or both. It's very rare that a team can win a conference championship without these qualities, though the Detroit Pistons are probably the closest thing we've seen in the last decade.  In compiling an approximation of the top three players for every team to reach the finals over the last eight years, the Pistons were the only team that couldn't be summarized in three players. You could argue that many of the teams below should mention a 4th, or have a border-line 3rd option, and that's all good...

But what I'm getting at here, is that there's no question the Clippers main asset this year is in their depth, and if anything, this strength is being underplayed heading into the season. It's feasible that what figure to be the top eight rotation players, (B.Davis, Kaman, Thornton, Camby, Mobley, R.Davis, Thomas, & Gordon) could all be starting somewhere in the league, which not too many other teams can say.

The Clippers' impressive depth isn't all they have going for them.  They finally have a vocal leader, and an established star at the most important position.  The problem is that Baron Davis will probably have to be the teams first scoring option by default.  But if the fact that our PG must run the team and double as our leading scorer isn't our biggest weakness, it's definitely our 2nd & 3rd options.  Well, at least on paper it is.  Can we really expect Kaman 3.0 or better? Can he step to David West, Bynum/Gasol, Stoudamire, etc? It's probably asking too much.  If Kaman instead performs to what his track record indicates, it will take a mammoth leap from Al Thornton to allow the Clippers to look the best teams in the eye. 

The only other possibility I see is if Eric Gordon gets back on the court quickly and completley aces his rookie year, forcing Dunleavy to start him over a healthy and productive Mobley in the process. The odds of that happening appear to be very long and unrealistic, though you might think the entire premise of the NBA Finals and the LA Clippers being part of the same discussion is just as crazy.  Disclaimer: Because we're talking about best possible scenarios, the assumption of good health and good chemistry are a given, and we are left to look at players with upside.  And anyway, if you look at it this way, there seems to be plenty of room for error in order for this team to earn a measley playoff spot.   

2009

Clippers – B.Davis, Kaman, Thornton, Camby

(Currently going off at around 50/1)

2008

Celtics – Pierce, Garnett, Allen

Lakers – Kobe, Gasol, Odom

2007

Spurs – Duncan, Parker, Ginobli

Cavs – Lebron, Ilgauskas, Gooden

2006

Heat – D.Wade, Shaq, Posey

Mavs – Notwitzki, Howard, Terry

2005

Spurs – Duncan, Parker, Ginobli

Pistons – Billups, Hamilton, Prince, Sheed, BB

2004

Pistons – Billups, Hamilton, Prince, Sheed, BB

Lakers – Kobe, Shaq, Payton

2003

Spurs – Duncan, Robinson, Parker

Nets – Kidd, Martin, Jefferson

2002

Lakers – Shaq, Kobe, ???

Nets – Kidd, Jefferson, Collins

2001

Lakers – Shaq, Kobe, ???

76ers – Iverson, Mutumbo, Snow