Of course none of us want the season to be cancelled. We want to watch NBA basketball now. Every game cancelled is a potentially a life-altering Blake Griffin dunk or two that we don't get to see, and will never get to see. It makes me sad just to think about it.
And no one really knows for certain how the 2012 draft will be handled if they do cancel the season - but we can make a pretty good guess. Ric Bucher tweeted his best guess based on his sources Monday night:
So guess who has the worst aggregate record over the past three seasons? It's the Minnesota Timberwolves, by a pretty wide margin. Oh, and guess who owns Minnesota's 2012 draft pick outright? You may have already been aware that the Los Angeles Clippers own that particular pick.
Not only that, the Clippers haven't been so great themselves for the last few years, compiling the fifth worst aggregate record during that time. Which means, assuming a lottery relatively similar to the usual one for the bottom 14 teams, that the Clippers will have two sets of ping pong balls adding up to pretty good odds at a couple of good pick. They'll have the best odds of getting the number one overall pick of course, and pretty decent odds of getting two picks in the top 5. Furthermore, again assuming standard lottery rules, they'll definitely get to keep both of their 2012 picks, since they are top 10 protected and the Clippers lowest possible draft position for their second pick would be eighth. (Remember that their protected 2012 pick was traded to Oklahoma City on draft day last year for Eric Bledsoe, and that pick was subsequently traded by the Thunder to Boston.)
That's two high lottery picks in a draft that figures to be historically good, as it will likely include many of the top prospects from the High School class of 2010 that stayed in college an extra year to avoid the NBA lockout (looking like a smart move, Jared and Harrison) in addition to those from a very talented class of 2011.
So while we would all definitely prefer a season, if indeed this is the 2012 draft formula, it's at least a little consolation.
Here are the aggregate records for the last three seasons for all 30 NBA teams. Memphis actually sneaks into the lottery as do the Knicks.
Tm |
AggW |
AggL |
MIN |
56 |
190 |
SAC |
66 |
180 |
WAS |
68 |
178 |
NJN |
70 |
176 |
LAC |
80 |
166 |
GSW |
91 |
155 |
TOR |
95 |
151 |
DET |
96 |
150 |
NYC |
103 |
143 |
IND |
105 |
141 |
PHI |
109 |
137 |
MEM |
110 |
136 |
CHA |
113 |
133 |
MIL |
115 |
131 |
OKC |
128 |
118 |
NOH |
132 |
114 |
HOU |
138 |
108 |
PHO |
140 |
106 |
UTA |
140 |
106 |
ATL |
144 |
102 |
CHI |
144 |
102 |
CLE |
146 |
100 |
MIA |
148 |
98 |
POR |
152 |
94 |
DEN |
157 |
89 |
DAL |
162 |
84 |
SAS |
165 |
81 |
BOS |
168 |
78 |
ORL |
170 |
76 |
LAL |
179 |
67 |