An Analysis of the Dudley and Redick Trade

As Lucas mentioned, this was essentially a win-win-win for all three ball clubs. But how much of a win is this for the Clippers? Let's first take a look at the statistics.

J.J. Redick

A number of media outlets are writing that with the acquisition of Redick, the Clippers are essentially counting themselves out of the Chauncey Billups sweepstakes. Now, what these writers all seem to be incorrectly assuming is that Chauncey is now permanently a shooting guard, which would indeed make him obsolete for the Clippers. He could, however, come back to back up Chris Paul, where Malik Wayns and a tiny bit of Jamal Crawford are currently the only backups. But either way, Chauncey the Shooting Guard, and of course Willie Green, who started most games last year at the 2, are who we must compare Redick to (per 36):

Now, I should note that, quite surprisingly, throughout his career Redick has only once played more than 30 minutes per game. On the Clippers, one would assume that these types of minutes would be required of him. However, unlike Bledsoe, he's not a ball of energy that could potentially burn out if he's unable to pace himself. I don't really see minutes being a big issue here.

So comparing the three players, Redick appears to be a mix of the two players. Percentages hover in between the two, rebounds are exactly the same, assists, turnovers, and points are also right in the middle. Wait, so the Clippers are just getting the exact same guy? Well, not entirely. These basic stats only tell part of the story. According to Synergy Sports, Redick only took around 20% of hit shots in spot up situations, compared to 44% for Willie and 31% for Chauncey. Redick works more off of screens, where he took 30% of his shots, compared to just 11% for Willie and 13% for Chauncey. The rest of Redicks shots came in a variety of hand-offs, cuts through the lane, or in pick-and-roll situations (as the ballhandler). Willie basically took the rest of his shots in transition situations, and Chauncey added in some iso and post play, so I fully expect Redick to create more action in the half-court for the Clippers than either of his predecessors.

Chauncey was actually pretty good in the half-court for the Clippers, but his real point of weakness was his defense. Put simply, Chauncey had trouble closing out on shooters. Call it old legs or call it bad defensive schemes; either way, Chauncey was terrible at guarding the spot up jump shot. And as I'd pointed out in my post about the Clippers' defense last season, even at their best, they were terrible at guarding spot up shooters. And unfortunately, despite the fact that Willie appeared to be at least a solid defender, he was actually just as bad as Chauncey in most categories, according to Synergy Sports. Neither were strong iso defenders, which means that they really couldn't do much to stop the Kobes and Wades of the league. Now Redick is no defensive stopper either, but if last year's Synergy numbers are to be believed, he looks pretty solid in iso and pick-and-roll defense, and despite also giving up a lot of spot-up jumpers himself, he's league average in terms of points-per-possession-allowed, thanks to those quick feet.

Jared Dudley

Despite having some pretty obnoxious moments against the Clippers ("WHAT? WHAT?"), Jared Dudley is a very solid player who I have secretly been wishing was on the Clippers for some time now. Here's the statistical comparison (per 36):

He's not a flashy player, taking fewer shots per 36 than either Caron or Matt did with the Clippers, but he's highly efficient. He's got a career true-shooting percentage of 58%, which is great compared to Barnes' 57% last year and Butler's 52% the last two years. Barnes was of course efficient, as we remember, but he's not the shooter Caron was. Now, the Clippers will have both the shooting and the efficiency. And boy is he efficient, especially from outside. Ideally, the Clippers would love to bring back Barnes using his FA rights (a contract 120% of his previous, so about $1.03M), so they can have efficient forwards that can work both inside and out, but Barnes may be looking for a bigger pay day than that. Still, Dudley's one of the most efficient players in the league, top ranked in almost every category from a points-per-possession standpoint. Dudley will spread the floor and make life much easier for both Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, who both prefer to work inside the arc and would absolutely love a defense that were forced to stay out of the paint on shooters.

So what about defense? Are the Clippers losing something with Dudley? I mean, we know Barnes was a defensive stalwart, and that Butler was not a bad defender either, but what about Dudley?

First, let's look at how our perceptions of Butler and Barnes stack up to the Synergy numbers. Butler was actually a bit below average from a points-per-possession-allowed standpoint, almost entirely based on poor defense on spot-up shooters. (If you notice this is becoming a trend, it definitely was for the Clippers last year--so here's to hoping new team defensive schemes fix this problem). Outside of spot-up shooters, Butler was also a poor defender in iso situations last year. We saw, as his time with the Clippers went on, that his lateral quickness was beginning to wane. But as an pick-and-roll, post-up, and off-screen defender, Butler was solid enough. Barnes was, as suspected, an overall strong defender. He was extremely good against pick-and-rolls, a great off-screen defender, and surprisingly (for this team), an above-average defender of spot-up shooters. He held his own in iso and post-up situations too. If Barnes doesn't return to the team, his defense will sorely be missed.

Dudley, I'm sad to say, suffers from the same "closing out on shooters" ailment that apparently everyone not named Matt Barnes suffered from on the Clippers last year. His overall ranking in terms of points-per-possession-allowed is weak almost entirely due to that spot-up shooting defense. Everything else is either average or above average, but with limited athleticism or length, he just can't get out on those shooters. Still, Dudley is a solid defender who won't gamble a lot and will generally make the right play on defense. He's no Matt Barnes, but with Bledsoe gone, the whole "Tribe Called Bench" ball-mobbing crew is basically dismantled. Steady, half-court defense is going to be the Clippers' new bread and butter, and I think Dudley fits the mold just fine there.

Wrapping it Up

Overall, if you can't tell, I'm pretty stoked about this trade. Bledsoe (and now potentially Barnes) will be missed for their defense and rebounding, but the Clippers now have the potential to be the highest rated offense in the league. If that seems like a superlative statement, it really isn't. The Clippers were ranked 4th in offense last year, but as we all know from watching them, they had plenty of room to improve, particularly with outside shooting and sideline play-calling. Well, now the Clippers have two dead-eye shooters in their starting lineup, and two of their best shooters from last year (Willie and Jamal) coming off the bench. Also, they have Doc Rivers coaching hopefully more than just "the Chris Paul Offense." It's a good time to be a Clipper fan.

Admittedly, I haven't had time to read any of the Nation's comments on the subject, so hopefully you all agree with me. If not, I welcome you to tell me what I've forgotten to consider because I'm sure there's some extra factor I'm leaving out.