Clips Nation - The 2013 NBA PlayoffsWhat it do babyyyhttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/47967/clipsnation_fave.png2013-04-15T13:15:01-07:00http://www.clipsnation.com/rss/stream/39918492013-04-15T13:15:01-07:002013-04-15T13:15:01-07:00Does the three seed matter to the Clippers?
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<figcaption>Jayne Kamin-Oncea-US PRESSWIRE</figcaption>
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<p>With two games left, the Clippers could finish third or fourth or fifth in the West. Obviously they want home court in the first round. But does the three seed represent a major advantage over the four seed?</p> <p>Saturday's win in Memphis was crucial to the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.clipsnation.com/">Clippers</a> chances of opening the playoffs with home court advantage. But it also keeps their hopes alive of passing Denver and entering the postseason as the third seed in the Western Conference. Which begs the question, is there a big difference for the Clippers between the three seed and the four seed?</p>
<p>The difference in seeding changes entirely the Clippers path to the NBA Finals. While many permutations are still possible, the most likely path with the four seed has the Clippers hosting Memphis in the first round, then going on the road to face number one seed Oklahoma City, with the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.poundingtherock.com/">Spurs</a> or <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.denverstiffs.com/">Denver Nuggets</a> being the likely opponent in the Western Conference Finals if L.A. gets that far.</p>
<p>The three seed would start with home court advantage against either the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.thedreamshake.com/">Rockets</a> or the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.goldenstateofmind.com/">Warriors</a>, then go on the road against San Antonio, with the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.welcometoloudcity.com/">Thunder</a> or the Nuggets waiting in the WCF. </p>
<p>Given that the Clippers are 3-1 against the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.grizzlybearblues.com/">Grizzlies</a> this season and won a Game 7 in Memphis against them last season, there's an argument to be made that the Clippers might prefer the Grizzlies in the first round, as compared to a Golden State team that defeated the LAC three times this season. If you had asked me this question -- three seed or four seed? -- a couple weeks ago, I would probably have preferred the four seed.</p>
<p>But that was before the Spurs and Nuggets suffered a rash of injuries. <span>Tony Parker</span> has been hurt and though he's back in the lineup, he seems less than 100 percent. <span>Manu Ginobili</span> is hurt and has yet to return. He should be back for the playoffs, but who knows how effective he'll be. <span>Boris Diaw</span> will miss the first round of the playoffs and possibly more. Meanwhile the Spurs got tired of dealing with <span>Stephen Jackson</span> and waived him last week. That's four key players for the Spurs either out or hurting for the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Thunder never have anyone hurt and seem to be closing the season strong.</p>
<p>The Nuggets have been red-hot, but a season-ending injury to <span>Danilo Gallinari</span> doesn't help. Still, Denver is crazy deep on the wing -- Gallinari's minutes will be soaked up by <span>Andre Iguodala</span>, <span>Corey Brewer</span> and <span>Wilson Chandler</span>, three very productive players, and so his absence may not be as impactful as one might think. The real prize of catching the Nuggets in the standings and grabbing the three seed might be he fact that the Clippers would have home court advantage in a Clippers-Nuggets series should the eventuality arise. </p>
<p>In the end, yes, you'd prefer to have the three seed, but it's not a huge difference. The Spurs look like the easier path to the Finals right now, but that's also the team that swept the Clippers in last season's playoffs. The Clippers actually match up pretty well with Oklahoma City -- and even though the Thunder swept the Clippers 3-0 this season, one of those losses came while <span>Chris Paul</span> was out, and the other two went down to the final seconds, so the season series was not nearly so lopsided as it seems. In fact, I can envision the Thunder being overconfident in a Game 1 and the Clippers ambushing them. Don't forget that the Clippers beat the Thunder three games out of four last season. </p>
<p>The Clippers should be the clear favorite over the Grizzlies in the first round based on their recent success against Memphis, but it will certainly be a difficult series. More importantly, even should the Clippers win, it figures to be a grueling, physical series, so it could take a toll. That's one reason the three seed might be better -- the Clippers can certainly get past the Grizzlies, but at what cost?</p>
<p>There are no easy paths to the NBA Finals. If Denver loses in Milwaukee tonight, the Clippers will be only too happy to snatch the three seed from them. I also can't help but think about the games that Denver has won over Chicago and Philadelphia in the last month that they probably should have lost -- the difference between third and fourth is fairly arbitrary at the end of the day. But if L.A. ends up with the four seed, the task will remain both daunting and doable.</p>
https://www.clipsnation.com/2013/4/15/4227818/does-the-three-seed-matter-to-the-clippersSteve Perrin2013-04-15T12:09:34-07:002013-04-15T12:09:34-07:00Your daily playoff update and open thread
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<figcaption>Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Just two games left and nothing is decided in the Western Conference. There are some huge games tonight that will make things clearer.</p> <p>Although we still don't have any seeds in the Western Conference playoffs completely decided, San Antonio's loss to the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.silverscreenandroll.com/">Lakers</a> last night makes a few things much more likely. For one thing, the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.welcometoloudcity.com/">Thunder</a> will almost certainly be the number one seed in the West. Oklahoma City's magic number is down to one -- one win in their final two games, or one San Antonio loss, and the Thunder finish first. There's no way that OKC is losing at home to both Sacramento and Milwaukee, so it's really all over. Kevin Pelton in his <a href="http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/PerDiem-130415/playoff-races-playing-odds" target="_blank">ESPN PER Diem column</a> (Insider required) puts the odds at 99.6 percent.</p>
<p>The Lakers win also vastly improves their chances of squeaking into the playoffs, even without <span>Kobe Bryant</span>. The Lakers' magic number is likewise down to one, but they have fewer chances to get that one. Even if Utah wins out in road games against Minnesota and Memphis, the Lakers will still advance to the postseason with a win over Houston on Wednesday.</p>
<p>Speaking of Utah, you really have to feel for them. They desperately needed the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.poundingtherock.com/">Spurs</a> to beat the Lakers last night, and had to sit at home watching NBA-TV as <span>Gregg Popovich</span> finished a one possession game with a lineup of <span>Tim Duncan</span>, <span>Matt Bonner</span>, <span>Danny Green</span>, <span>Gary Neal</span> and <span>Cory Joseph</span>. Pop said afterward that <span>Tony Parker</span> wasn't in because he was playing poorly (1-10) not because he was hurt. Still, don't you play your best player on the assumption that he'll step up? Parker sat the final nine minutes of the game. The score was tied when he exited, and the Lakers immediately went on a 15-4 run to open their biggest lead of the game. So yeah, Parker was really killing the Spurs.</p>
<p>Utah's chances of catching the Lakers may depend on the level of motivation of the opponents on Wednesday. Utah (a poor road team) at Memphis looks like a loss -- but if Memphis loses in Dallas tonight and the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.clipsnation.com/">Clippers</a> win against Portland tomorrow, then the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.grizzlybearblues.com/">Grizzlies</a> will be locked into the five seed and may choose to rest up for the playoffs. On the other hand, if Houston wins in Phoenix tonight they might be totally satisfied with the seventh seed (facing the slumping Spurs) rather than trying for the sixth seed (which would probably give them the red-hot <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.denverstiffs.com/">Nuggets</a>). Ah, the crazy drama of the final week.</p>
<p>Which brings us to the Nuggets-Clippers-Grizzlies dance. With just two games remaining, all the permutations of the 3-4-5 seeds are still possible for all three teams, but it's highly unlikely that the Grizzlies will climb up to the three seed. Pelton has run hundreds of simulations on the last two games, and they show Denver finishing with the three seed 71.6 percent of the time, the Clippers moving up 28 percent of the time, and Memphis with just a 0.4 percent chance of finishing third.That 28 percent number for the Clippers seems pretty optimistic to me, but Denver does have a losing road record. Here's <a href="http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/PerDiem-130415/playoff-races-playing-odds" target="_blank">Pelton's explanation</a> (Insider required):</p>
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<p>Saturday's Clippers win in Memphis was one of the season's biggest games. It not only gave the Clippers the inside track on home-court advantage should the two teams meet again in this year's opening round but also kept alive the Clippers' hopes of finishing third. Denver is still the heavy favorite for the third seed; if the Nuggets can win tonight in Milwaukee, they wrap up the schedule with a home gimme against the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.brightsideofthesun.com/">Phoenix Suns</a>. The Clippers would need a Denver loss and to win out hosting Portland on Tuesday and visiting Sacramento on Wednesday in what is sure to be an emotional game.</p>
<p>If the Nuggets finish third, the Clippers would be the fourth seed and the Grizzlies fifth, but ,as I detailed on TrueHoop last week, home-court advantage would still be decided by record. Because the Clippers win any tie as division champs, two wins would secure home court one way or another. So Memphis needs help to get home-court advantage, and the Grizzlies also have the most difficult remaining schedule -- at Dallas tonight and home on Wednesday against a Utah team that might be fighting for its playoff life.</p>
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<p>The Nuggets have won 22 straight at home, so the idea that they would lose to the last place Suns in Denver on Wednesday is pretty far fetched. If they win in Milwaukee tonight I'm guessing their odds of finishing third move into the 95 percent range or higher. So obviously Clips Nation becomes <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.brewhoop.com/">Bucks</a> Nation tonight. Unfortunately the Bucks have been dreadful lately and have nothing to play for since they're already locked into the eighth seed in the East. Two Bucks starters, <span>Brandon Jennings</span> and <span>Larry Sanders</span>, have been sitting out to rest injuries, and coach <span>Jim Boylan</span> <a href="http://espn.go.com/nba/preview?id=400278927" target="_blank">doesn't sound like a guy who's pushing hard</a> for more regular season wins:</p>
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<p>We'll try to keep our guys fresh and keep them playing enough that they're feeling in a rhythm and ready to compete. I don't want to sit them out completely, but at the same time we want to be cautious.</p>
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<p>Of course, Denver will be missing two starters also, as <span>Kenneth Faried</span> twisted his ankle last night to join <span>Danilo Gallinari</span> (done for the year after ACL surgery) on the sidelines. Denver did get <span>Ty Lawson</span> back last night.</p>
<p>In contrast to the West, six of the eight Eastern Conference seeds are completely decided. Only the 5-6 race between Atlanta and Chicago is yet to be determined. Then again, with the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.hothothoops.com/">Heat</a> representing the 800 pound gorilla in the postseason, why would anyone want to be the fifth seed? The sixth seed goes into the other side of the bracket and wouldn't face the Heat until the Conference Finals, while the fifth seed would head to Miami in the second round if they make it that far. With little difference between Indiana and Brooklyn in the first round, the sixth seed is infinitely preferable in my opinion. If I'm Chicago, Noah and Deng are resting until the playoffs start.</p>
<p>There are 11 games tonight. The key ones all start at 5 PM Pacific, with Memphis in Dallas, Denver in Milwaukee, and Utah in Minnesota. The Mavs and/or Bucks can do the Clippers a huge favor tonight, a win from either one of them making life much better for L.A. The Memphis game is on NBA-TV.</p>
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<p>New York at Charlotte, 4:00 PM</p>
<p>Chicago at Orlando, 4:00 PM</p>
<p>Miami at Cleveland, 4:00 PM</p>
<p>Washington at Brooklyn, 4:30 PM</p>
<p>Philadelphia at Detroit, 4:30 PM</p>
<p>Denver at Milwaukee, 5:00 PM</p>
<p>Memphis at Dallas, 5:00 PM, NBA-TV</p>
<p>Sacramento at Oklahoma City, 5:00 PM</p>
<p>Utah at Minnesota, 5:00 PM</p>
<p>Houston at Phoenix, 7:00 PM</p>
<p>San Antonio at Golden State, 7:30 PM, NBA-TV</p>
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https://www.clipsnation.com/2013/4/15/4227534/your-daily-playoff-update-and-open-threadSteve Perrin