Clips Nation - NBA Playoffs Round 1 Game 3 Clippers-Grizzlies game coverageWhat it do babyyyhttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/47967/clipsnation_fave.png2013-04-25T22:53:14-07:00http://www.clipsnation.com/rss/stream/40264692013-04-25T22:53:14-07:002013-04-25T22:53:14-07:00Grizzlies play their game, beat Clippers 94-82
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<figcaption>USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>The Grizzlies did all the things that have made them successful all season, playing stifling defense and crashing the offensive glass, and in the process they got their first win in their NBA playoff series against the Clippers.</p> <p>Did anyone really think this was going to be a Clippers' sweep? Sure, it would have been nice, but the Grizzlies are too good a team, and realistically this was never going to be a Clippers' sweep. This was exactly the games the Grizzlies wanted, they got it, and they won it. They deserve lots of credit for creating the game they wanted, a game where the Clippers were playing in fetters all evening. </p>
<p>In a way, it's pretty easy for the Clippers to move on from this one. Sure, this was Memphis' game, and if the Grizzlies are able to play this way for the rest of the series, then they could make things very uncomfortable for the Clippers. But at the same time, <span>Chris Paul</span> is unlikely to have another game this bad, against the Memphis defense or any other defense. Paul had more turnovers (five) in this game than assists (four) -- that's only happened ten times in his career, in 591 regular season and playoff games. </p>
<p>As for the Grizzlies, everything that wasn't happening in the first two games happened in this one. In fact, in several key categories, the stats from Game 3 equal or exceed those from the first two games combined. The Clippers held Memphis to 12 total offensive rebounds in the L.A. games -- the Grizzlies had 17 tonight. <span>Zach Randolph</span> had 26 points and 12 rebounds in the first two games; he went for 27 points and 11 rebounds in Game 3. </p>
<p>And yet, with things going very right for Memphis and very wrong for L.A., the Clippers were still within five points in the fourth quarter. Had the Clippers been able to sustain any sort of run, they might have stolen the game. But they never really found a groove all evening, so they'll just have to point towards Saturday as their chance to win in Memphis and keep control of the series.</p>
<p>Neither team shot well -- in fact, both were an equally frigid 38.8 percent from the field. But there was something about exactly who struggled from the field that seemed to favor Memphis. The group of Clipper guards that had been so brilliant in L.A. particularly in Game 1 was just as futile in Memphis. Paul (4-11), <span>Chauncey Billups</span> (3-8), <span>Jamal Crawford</span> (3-10) and <span>Eric Bledsoe</span> (0-4) combined to make just 10 shots in 33 tries. With Paul slogging through perhaps the worst playoff performance of his career, the Clippers might still have made a game of this had Bledsoe come into the game as his usual Grizzlyslayer persona. Instead he scored zero points, missing each of his shots in disturbing fashion. There's also a huge difference in 38.8 percent shooting with five offensive rebounds (the Clippers) and 38.8 percent shooting with 17 offensive rebounds (the Grizzlies); all those extra possessions actually made the Grizzlies offensive night fairly efficient, despite the poor shooting.</p>
<p>Let me reiterate that most of the credit for the Clippers offensive struggles should go to the Memphis defense. Sometimes you watch a team shoot under 40 percent and it's mostly about the team missing shots. This was not one of those games. The Clippers didn't shoot well by any means, and they might have made some shots they missed, but for the most part they struggled from the field because the Grizzlies forced them into taking difficult, contested shots. On two different occasions <span>Matt Barnes</span> was forced to heave long three pointers towards the rim as the shot clock expired. In the second half, "the shot clock is at four" became a meme for Ralph and Mike. We know that the Clippers can do more to attack the Memphis pressure than they did tonight -- clearly Paul is capable of playing better, and the team on the whole lacked the necessary energy. But there's a reason Memphis won 56 games, and it ain't their high-flying offense. The bottom line is, the Grizzlies brought their A+ defense tonight and the Clippers were no better than a C -- that combination will result in an F every time (or in this case, an L).</p>
<p>One thing seems fairly certain in this series -- the Grizzlies are going to score in the low 90s. Until a <span>Tony Allen</span> three pointer in the final seconds (his second of the series after making three in 79 regular season games), Memphis sat on 91 points, their exact point total from each of the first two games. So it's inherent on the Clippers to score more than 91 at least. If Memphis can hold them in the 80s (82 tonight, and it took a couple of late <span>Lamar Odom</span> three pointers just to get there), this series is going to get dicey.</p>
<p>There's one thing that makes me suspect that Saturday's game will be very different: Chris Paul hates to lose, and he especially hates it when he thinks he is responsible for it. After such a non-Chris-Paul performance, I wouldn't bet against him in Game 4. He may or may not be able to lead the Clippers to the road victory they would dearly love to have, but there's no way he's going to have such a poor performance, and I strongly suspect he'll be great.</p>
<p>It will take more than just a bounce-back game from Paul though -- in particular, the Clippers need to re-commit to protecting their defensive glass as they did in the first two games. No one expects the Grizzlies to be held to four offensive rebounds again -- that's unrealistically few. But at the same time 17 is way too many. If Randolph is pulling down six offensive rebounds while Griffin is getting two rebounds total, something is very, very wrong.</p>
<p>In the end, this seemed like a good example of Citizen Zhiv's "Hungrier Team Theory." The Grizzlies were clearly the hungrier team Thursday night, as you would have expected them to be. After going without a win, hopefully the Clippers could come back voracious on Saturday.</p>
<p>For the Memphis perspective, visit <a href="http://www.grizzlybearblues.com/">Grizzly Bear Blues</a>.</p>
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<th class="td-left"> <span>Final - 4.25.2013 </span> </th> <th>1</th> <th>2</th> <th>3</th> <th>4</th> <th>Total</th>
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<td class="td-name"><span class="loss"> <a href="https://www.clipsnation.com/">Los Angeles Clippers</a> </span></td>
<td>20</td>
<td>19</td>
<td>23</td>
<td>20</td>
<td class="highlight">82</td>
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<td class="td-name"><span class="win"> <a href="https://www.grizzlybearblues.com/">Memphis Grizzlies</a> </span></td>
<td>23</td>
<td>24</td>
<td>23</td>
<td>24</td>
<td class="highlight">94</td>
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<p class="foot clearfix"><span class="link-more"><span>Complete Coverage ></span></span></p>
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https://www.clipsnation.com/2013/4/25/4268712/nba-playoffs-grizzlies-play-their-game-beat-clippers-94-82Steve Perrin2013-04-25T20:08:44-07:002013-04-25T20:08:44-07:00Clippers-Grizzlies Game 3 second half open thread
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<figcaption>Andy Lyons</figcaption>
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<p>The Clippers are in a whole, but they should be happy that it's only eight points deep. This game is there for the taking if the Clippers can find some energy and figure out the Memphis defense (which has been terrific).</p> <p>Honestly, you have to feel pretty good that the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.clipsnation.com/">Clippers</a> are only down eight at halftime. <span>Zach Randolph</span> is having a monster game, which is exactly what the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.grizzlybearblues.com/">Grizzlies</a> needed, and the Memphis defense has been stifling. And yet the Clippers are only one decent run away from the lead. Hopefully the Clippers can make this thing tight in the second half.</p>
https://www.clipsnation.com/2013/4/25/4268270/nba-playoffs-round-1-game-3-clippers-grizzlies-second-half-open-threadSteve Perrin2013-04-25T18:15:04-07:002013-04-25T18:15:04-07:00Clippers-Grizzlies Game 3 open thread
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<figcaption>Stephen Dunn</figcaption>
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<p>If the Clippers can win tonight and open a 3-0 lead in their NBA playoff series with the Grizzlies, it's as good as over. This is essentially a must-win for Memphis.</p> <table class="sbnu-legacy-content-table" cellspacing="5" border="1" cellpadding="5" align="center"><tbody>
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<th align="center" colspan="3" bgcolor="silver">2013 NBA Playoffs - First Round</th>
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<td width="240"><center><img alt="Bvv028jd1hhr8ee8ii7a0fg4i_medium" src="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/472353/bvv028jd1hhr8ee8ii7a0fg4i_medium.gif"></center></td>
<th align="center" width="20">vs</th>
<td width="240"><center> <a href="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/502994/793.gif" target="_blank"><img alt="793_medium" class="photo" src="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/502994/793_medium.gif"></a> <br id="1351645292796">
</center></td>
</tr>
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<td width="240"><center><b>56-26</b></center></td>
<th align="center" width="20"><br></th>
<td width="240"><center><b>56-26</b></center></td>
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<tr>
<td align="center" colspan="3" bgcolor="silver"><b>Game 3 - April 25th, 2013, 6:30 PM</b></td>
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<td align="center" colspan="3"><b>FedEx Forum, Memphis</b></td>
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<td align="center" colspan="3"><b>Prime Ticket, TNT, KFWB 980 AM, KWW 1330 AM<br></b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center" colspan="3"><a target="_blank" href="http://www.tiqiq.com/nba/los-angeles-clippers-tickets?pubid=1011034"><b>Buy Clippers Tickets</b></a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th align="center" colspan="3" bgcolor="silver">Series Schedule<br>
</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center" colspan="3"><b><a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.clipsnation.com/">Clippers</a> lead series 2-0</b></td>
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<td align="center" colspan="3">
<b>Game 1 - Sat April 20 in Los Angeles, </b><a href="http://www.clipsnation.com/2013/4/20/4248104/clippers-bury-grizzlies-in-game-1-112-91" target="_blank"><b>Clippers 112, Grizzlies 91</b></a>
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<td align="center" colspan="3">
<b>Game 2 - Mon April 22</b><b> in Los Angeles, </b><a href="http://www.clipsnation.com/2013/4/23/4255748/clippers-rip-out-grizzlies-hearts-93-91/in/4018869" target="_blank"><b>Clippers 93, Grizzlies 91</b></a>
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<td align="center" colspan="3"><b>Game 3 - Thu April 25, 6:30 p.m., Memphis, FedEx Forum</b></td>
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<td align="center" colspan="3"><b>Game 4 - Sat April 27, 1:30 p.m., Memphis, FedEx Forum</b></td>
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<td align="center" colspan="3"><b>Game 5 * Tue April 30, Time TBD, Los Angeles, STAPLES Center</b></td>
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<td align="center" colspan="3"><b>Game 6 * Fri May 3, Time TBD, Memphis, FedEx Forum</b></td>
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<td align="center" colspan="3"><b>Game 7 * Sun May 5, Time TBD, Los Angeles, STAPLES Center</b></td>
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<td align="center" colspan="3">* if necessary</td>
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<th align="center" colspan="3" bgcolor="silver"><b>Probable Starters</b></th>
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<td align="right" width="240"><b><span>Chris Paul</span></b></td>
<th align="center" width="20">PG</th>
<td width="240"><b><span>Mike Conley</span></b></td>
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<td align="right" width="240"><b><span>Chauncey Billups</span></b></td>
<th align="center" width="20">SG</th>
<td width="240"><b><span>Tony Allen</span></b></td>
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<td align="right" width="240"><b><span>Caron Butler</span></b></td>
<th align="center" width="20">SF</th>
<td width="240"><b><span>Tayshaun Prince</span></b></td>
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<td align="right" width="240"><span><b>Blake Griffin</b></span></td>
<th align="center" width="20">PF</th>
<td width="240"><b><span>Zach Randolph</span></b></td>
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<td align="right" width="240"><span><b>DeAndre Jordan</b></span></td>
<th align="center" width="20">C</th>
<td width="240"><b><span>Marc Gasol</span></b></td>
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<th align="center" colspan="3" bgcolor="silver"><b>Key Reserves</b></th>
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<td align="right" width="240"><b><span>Eric Bledsoe</span></b></td>
<th align="center" width="20">PG</th>
<td width="240"><b><span>Keyon Dooling</span></b></td>
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<td align="right" width="240"><b><span>Jamal Crawford</span></b></td>
<th align="center" width="20">SG</th>
<td width="240"><b><span>Jerryd Bayless</span></b></td>
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<td align="right" width="240"><b><span>Matt Barnes</span></b></td>
<th align="center" width="20">SF</th>
<td width="240"><b><span>Quincy Pondexter</span></b></td>
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<td align="right" width="240"><b><span>Lamar Odom</span></b></td>
<th align="center" width="20">PF</th>
<td width="240"><b><span>Darrell Arthur</span></b></td>
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<td align="right" width="240"><b><span>Ryan Hollins</span></b></td>
<th align="center" width="20">C</th>
<td width="240"><b><span>Ed Davis</span></b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th align="center" colspan="3" bgcolor="silver"><b>Regular Season Advanced Stats</b></th>
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<td align="right" width="240"><b style="text-align: start; ">91.1 (19th of 30)</b></td>
<th align="center" width="20">Pace</th>
<td width="240"><b>88.4 (30th of 30)</b></td>
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<tr>
<td align="right" width="240"><b style="text-align: start; ">110.6 (4th of 30)</b></td>
<th align="center" width="20">ORtg</th>
<td width="240"><b>104.9 (17th of 30)</b></td>
</tr>
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<td align="right" width="240"><b style="text-align: start; ">103.6 (8th of 30)</b></td>
<th align="center" width="20">DRtg</th>
<td width="240"><b>100.3 (2nd of 30)</b></td>
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<tr>
<th align="center" colspan="3" bgcolor="silver"><b>Injuries/Suspensions/Other</b></th>
</tr>
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<td align="right" width="240" style="text-align: right;"><b>None</b></td>
<th align="center" width="20"><br></th>
<td width="240"><b>None</b></td>
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<th bgcolor="silver" height="20" colspan="3"></th>
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</tbody></table>
<p> </p>
<p><i>TiqIQ's job is to find you the best deals and seller on the market, and for <a href="http://www.charged.fm/performer/item/5393/los-angeles-clippers" target="_blank">Clippers tickets</a>, you may want to check out Charged.fm.</i></p>
https://www.clipsnation.com/2013/4/25/4266918/nba-playoffs-round-1-game-3-clippers-grizzlies-open-threadSteve Perrin2013-04-25T00:13:06-07:002013-04-25T00:13:06-07:00Clippers-Grizzlies preview -- Into the Grizzly Den
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<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/mOWwGo22sRcSk5n4BPzn4NaTM-I=/0x0:4000x2667/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/12111341/20130422_ajl_aj4_361.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>The Clippers head into Memphis with a 2-0 lead in their best of seven NBA playoff series. One L.A. road win in Memphis would put the Clippers in a commanding position; if Memphis can win both, we've got a series on our hands.</p> <table class="sbnu-legacy-content-table" cellspacing="5" border="1" cellpadding="5" align="center"><tbody>
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<th align="center" colspan="3" bgcolor="silver">2013 NBA Playoffs - First Round</th>
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<tr>
<td width="240"><center><img alt="Bvv028jd1hhr8ee8ii7a0fg4i_medium" src="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/472353/bvv028jd1hhr8ee8ii7a0fg4i_medium.gif"></center></td>
<th align="center" width="20">vs</th>
<td width="240"><center> <a href="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/502994/793.gif" target="_blank"><img alt="793_medium" class="photo" src="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/502994/793_medium.gif"></a> <br id="1351645292796">
</center></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="240"><center><b>56-26</b></center></td>
<th align="center" width="20"><br></th>
<td width="240"><center><b>56-26</b></center></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center" colspan="3" bgcolor="silver"><b>Game 3 - April 25th, 2013, 6:30 PM</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center" colspan="3"><b>FedEx Forum, Memphis</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center" colspan="3"><b>Prime Ticket, TNT, KFWB 980 AM, KWW 1330 AM<br></b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center" colspan="3"><a target="_blank" href="http://www.tiqiq.com/nba/los-angeles-clippers-tickets?pubid=1011034"><b>Buy Clippers Tickets</b></a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th align="center" colspan="3" bgcolor="silver">Series Schedule<br>
</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center" colspan="3"><b>Clippers lead series 2-0</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center" colspan="3">
<b>Game 1 - Sat April 20 in Los Angeles, </b><a href="http://www.clipsnation.com/2013/4/20/4248104/clippers-bury-grizzlies-in-game-1-112-91" target="_blank"><b>Clippers 112, Grizzlies 91</b></a>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center" colspan="3">
<b>Game 2 - Mon April 22</b><b> in Los Angeles, </b><a href="http://www.clipsnation.com/2013/4/23/4255748/clippers-rip-out-grizzlies-hearts-93-91/in/4018869" target="_blank"><b>Clippers 93, Grizzlies 91</b></a>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center" colspan="3"><b>Game 3 - Thu April 25, 6:30 p.m., Memphis, FedEx Forum</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center" colspan="3"><b>Game 4 - Sat April 27, 1:30 p.m., Memphis, FedEx Forum</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center" colspan="3"><b>Game 5 * Tue April 30, Time TBD, Los Angeles, STAPLES Center</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center" colspan="3"><b>Game 6 * Fri May 3, Time TBD, Memphis, FedEx Forum</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center" colspan="3"><b>Game 7 * Sun May 5, Time TBD, Los Angeles, STAPLES Center</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center" colspan="3">* if necessary</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th align="center" colspan="3" bgcolor="silver"><b>Probable Starters</b></th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="right" width="240"><b><span>Chris Paul</span></b></td>
<th align="center" width="20">PG</th>
<td width="240"><b><span>Mike Conley</span></b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="right" width="240"><b><span>Chauncey Billups</span></b></td>
<th align="center" width="20">SG</th>
<td width="240"><b><span>Tony Allen</span></b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="right" width="240"><b><span>Caron Butler</span></b></td>
<th align="center" width="20">SF</th>
<td width="240"><b><span>Tayshaun Prince</span></b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="right" width="240"><span><b>Blake Griffin</b></span></td>
<th align="center" width="20">PF</th>
<td width="240"><b><span>Zach Randolph</span></b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="right" width="240"><span><b>DeAndre Jordan</b></span></td>
<th align="center" width="20">C</th>
<td width="240"><b><span>Marc Gasol</span></b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th align="center" colspan="3" bgcolor="silver"><b>Key Reserves</b></th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="right" width="240"><b><span>Eric Bledsoe</span></b></td>
<th align="center" width="20">PG</th>
<td width="240"><b><span>Keyon Dooling</span></b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="right" width="240"><b><span>Jamal Crawford</span></b></td>
<th align="center" width="20">SG</th>
<td width="240"><b><span>Jerryd Bayless</span></b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="right" width="240"><b><span>Matt Barnes</span></b></td>
<th align="center" width="20">SF</th>
<td width="240"><b><span>Quincy Pondexter</span></b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="right" width="240"><b><span>Lamar Odom</span></b></td>
<th align="center" width="20">PF</th>
<td width="240"><b><span>Darrell Arthur</span></b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="right" width="240"><b><span>Ryan Hollins</span></b></td>
<th align="center" width="20">C</th>
<td width="240"><b><span>Ed Davis</span></b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th align="center" colspan="3" bgcolor="silver"><b>Regular Season Advanced Stats</b></th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="right" width="240"><b style="text-align: start; ">91.1 (19th of 30)</b></td>
<th align="center" width="20">Pace</th>
<td width="240"><b>88.4 (30th of 30)</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="right" width="240"><b style="text-align: start; ">110.6 (4th of 30)</b></td>
<th align="center" width="20">ORtg</th>
<td width="240"><b>104.9 (17th of 30)</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="right" width="240"><b style="text-align: start; ">103.6 (8th of 30)</b></td>
<th align="center" width="20">DRtg</th>
<td width="240"><b>100.3 (2nd of 30)</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th align="center" colspan="3" bgcolor="silver"><b>Injuries/Suspensions/Other</b></th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="right" width="240" style="text-align: right;"><b>None</b></td>
<th align="center" width="20"><br></th>
<td width="240"><b>None</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th bgcolor="silver" height="20" colspan="3"></th>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p> </p>
<p><b>The Back Story:</b></p>
<p>-- October 31, 2012 in Los Angeles | <a href="https://www.clipsnation.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Clippers</a> 101, <a href="https://www.grizzlybearblues.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Grizzlies</a> 92 | <a target="_blank" href="http://www.clipsnation.com/2012/10/31/3584398/clippers-final-score-l-a-still-owns-memphis-101-92"><b>Recap</b></a> |<b> <a target="_blank" href="http://www.nba.com/games/20121031/MEMLAC/gameinfo.html#nbaGIboxscore">Box Score</a></b></p>
<p>-- January 14, 2013 in Memphis | Clippers 99, Grizzlies 73 | <a target="_blank" href="http://www.clipsnation.com/2013/1/14/3877926/clippers-dont-need-paul-to-trounce-grizzlies-99-73"><b>Recap</b></a> | <a target="_blank" href="http://www.nba.com/games/20130114/LACMEM/gameinfo.html#nbaGIboxscore"><b>Box Score</b></a></p>
<p>-- March 13, 2013 in Los Angeles | Grizzlies 96, Clippers 85 | <a href="http://www.clipsnation.com/2013/3/13/4102472/clippers-lose-a-big-one-to-grizzlies-96-85" target="_blank"><b>Recap</b></a> | <a href="http://www.nba.com/games/20130313/MEMLAC/gameinfo.html#nbaGIboxscore" target="_blank"><b>Box Score</b></a></p>
<p>-- April 13, 2013 in Memphis | Clippers 91, Grizzlies 87 | <a target="_blank" href="http://www.clipsnation.com/2013/4/13/4222392/clippers-stop-grizzlies-91-87-take-control-of-home-court-race"><b>Recap</b></a> | <b><a target="_blank" href="http://www.nba.com/games/20130413/LACMEM/gameinfo.html#nbaGIboxscore">Box Score</a></b></p>
<p><b>The Big Picture:</b></p>
<p>The Clippers have collected two wins in two games, coming in two distinct varieties. In Game 1 they led wire-to-wire, pulling away in the fourth quarter to win by 21. Game 2 was closer (though the Clippers still led most of the way), with Memphis erasing a 12 point fourth quarter deficit and tying the game late, only to have their hearts broken by Chris Paul's buzzer-beater. The Clippers have done a great job on the boards in both games, limiting the Grizzlies to 12 offensive rebounds total, and they've shot well from the field (.513 in the two games). If L.A. can find their three point shooting (they're 9-34 overall after going 2-15 in Game 2) then it could be the end for Memphis. Teams up 2-0 in the NBA playoffs almost always win the series -- <a href="http://www.clipsnation.com/2013/4/24/4262206/nba-playoff-history-lesson-clippers-grizzlies-what-are-the-odds" target="_blank">94% of the time anyway</a> -- but then again, most of the time the team up 2-0 has a much better record. With two 56 win teams, it could be a very different story. The bottom line is the Clippers would love to win one of the next two games in Memphis. If the series goes back to L.A. tied 2-2, it's wide open again. If the Clippers can take a 3-1 lead back home, the long odds of a Memphis comeback get even longer.</p>
<p><b>The Antagonist:</b></p>
<p>The Grizzlies got monster games from Mike Conley and Tony Allen in Game 2 -- and still lost. They have yet to really get Zach Randolph going (he's averaged 13 points and six rebounds in the two games, limited by foul trouble) but aside from Zach the Grizzlies can't really hope for a much better game than they played Monday -- yet they still came up a little short. In Game 1 Lionel Hollins played his bench 101 minutes (call it 91 minutes out of a potential 230 not counting garbage time). In Game 2, reserves played a total of 44 minutes out of a possible 240. Mike Conley and Marc Gasol each played as many minutes by themselves as the entire Memphis bench. Obviously, it worked better in Game 2, and it's not difficult to see that Memphis' starters have to be out there, so I think we can expect more of the same in Game 3. Conley will play essentially the entire game (sorry Keyon) as will Gasol and probably Allen. Randolph will too if he can avoid foul trouble (which he probably can't unless he gets some home cooking in Memphis from the officials). So the game may come down to how a fresh second unit of the Clippers looks against the weary Memphis starters in the fourth quarter.</p>
<p><b>The Subplots</b></p>
<ul>
<li> <b>Series Preview.</b> Be sure to check out the <a href="http://www.clipsnation.com/2013/4/19/4240440/2013-nba-playoffs-first-round-clippers-grizzlies-series-preview/in/4018869" target="_blank">Series Preview</a>; all the good stuff in there is still plenty applicable.</li>
<li> <b>The Billups question.</b> Eric Bledsoe has been a Grizzly killer for two seasons now. Yet Chauncey Billups has played 44 minutes to Bledsoe's 32 in the series so far. Trust is an issue, and clearly VDN trusts Billups implicitly while Bledsoe is not always the most trustworthy point guard. But come on. Isn't it obvious who the impact players are? Isn't Bledsoe a guy the Clippers need on the floor? Especially considering how Mike Conley was beating Chris Paul on Monday. It didn't help in Game 2 that Billups was just 2-8. We all know that Chauncey isn't going to shy away from the big shot -- and that's kind of what scares me. I get it that Billups made 'Big Shots' for the '04 <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.detroitbadboys.com/">Pistons</a> -- but I'm not sure I want him taking those shots for the '13 Clippers.</li>
<li>
<b>Must win.</b> Short of an actual elimination game, this is as close to a "must win" for Memphis as you can get in sports. No NBA team has <i>ever </i>come back from an 0-3 deficit to win a seven game series. Teams down 0-3 have zero series wins in 103 tries in NBA history. It doesn't get much better in other sports. Basically, you don't want to be down 0-3.</li>
<li>
<b>Three point shooting.</b> Jamal Crawford 2-9, Caron Butler 1-4, Matt Barnes 0-3. Those three led the Clippers in three point attempts this season, and they're 3-16 in the playoffs so far. Imagine how lopsided these games would have been if the Clippers could hit a three pointer? Hopefully that will change tonight.</li>
<li> <b>To sub or not to sub?</b> Prior to Game 2 we discussed the fact that the Grizzlies relied heavily on Jerryd Bayless and other bench players in Game 1. Bayless played 30 minutes to 17 for Tony Allen in the first game, which seems like a clear win for the Clippers. In Game 2, Allen played 39 minutes and Bayless played nine. The Grizzlies have little choice but to ride their starters -- the bench isn't that great, and the starting lineup is what gives them their lock-down defense identity. I expect Hollins to ride his starters the rest of the series.</li>
<li>
<b>Allen.</b> Part of the reason Hollins gave up on Bayless was that Jamal Crawford was eating him up. Confidence is an amazing thing, and it's not as if Crawford was beating Bayless badly -- JCrossover just knew he could beat Bayless, and it became a self-fulfilling prophecy. If you don't believe a guy can guard you, then he can't, and Crawford made some ridiculous shots as a result. Once Hollins stuck Allen on Crawford the party was over. But Allen can't guard two guys at once, and if he's on Crawford, then a lesser defender is on Paul. The Clippers have a lot of weapons.</li>
<li>
<b>DPOY.</b> Marc Gasol won the NBA Defensive Player of the Year award on Wednesday and it was well-deserved. His positioning is impeccable, he's got quick hands and surprisingly quick feet, his basketball IQ is off the charts, and he's really, really BIG. Allen was fifth in voting, and <span>LeBron James</span> was the only perimeter defender with more votes than Allen. In other words, the sportswriters voting for the DPOY think that the best interior defender in the league and the second best perimeter defender in the league are both on the Grizzlies -- and that seems about right. Conley and Prince aren't exactly slouches either. This is a good defensive team.</li>
<li> <b>Conley.</b> After struggling more often than not against the Clippers going back to last year's playoffs, Mike Conley came up with a huge game Monday night, scoring a career playoff high 28. In fact, that's the second highest scoring game of his entire career, regular season or playoffs. With Randolph struggling and <span>Rudy Gay</span> exiled to Canada, the Grizzlies need offense from somewhere, and Conley seems to be their best option. Can he put two strong games together?</li>
<li> <b>Hollins/Turiaf.</b> Clippers coach <span>Vinny Del Negro</span> has flip-flopped between Ryan Hollins and <span>Ronny Turiaf</span> all season. It was Hollins early, then it was Turiaf, and for a brief time it was neither as he experimented with a small lineup featuring <span>Grant Hill</span> at the four, and he went back to Hollins at the end of the season. But in both playoff games, he's gone to Hollins early, only to switch to Turiaf. The simple fact is that Hollins is way too frail to battle with Gasol, and he can't guard him without fouling (he's picked up seven in 12 minutes so far). Turiaf is simply the better option against Gasol -- but he does raise the question of foul shooting.'</li>
<li>
<b>TNT.</b> The game is once again on TNT, which means we get to once again listen to the expert and completely <a href="http://www.clipsnation.com/2013/4/23/4255858/are-kenny-and-charles-even-watching" target="_blank">unbiased analysis</a> of Charles Barkley and Kenny Smith. Gee, I can't wait. Those of us in Southern California can at least opt for Ralph and Mike on Prime Ticket. In the rest of the country, maybe grab a bite to eat at halftime.</li>
<li> <b>Connections.</b> Zach Randolph is a former Clipper who they traded to Memphis to make room for Blake Griffin after winning the lottery and making Griffin the first overall pick in the 2009 draft. Keyon Dooling, who came out of retirement to sign with the Grizzlies a couple weeks ago and immediately became their backup point guard, began his 13 year NBA career as a Clipper. Prince and Billups were teammates for over six seasons in Detroit and won an NBA title together. Grizzlies coach <span>Lionel Hollins</span> and assistant coach <span>Henry Bibby</span> each played for the San Diego Clippers in the early 80s. Clippers assistant coach <span>Marc Iavaroni</span> was head coach of the Grizzlies for a season and a half from 07 to 09.</li>
<li><b>Get the Memphis perspective at <a href="http://www.grizzlybearblues.com/" target="_blank">Grizzly Bear Blues</a>.</b></li>
</ul>
https://www.clipsnation.com/2013/4/25/4262460/nba-playoffs-round-1-game-3-clippers-grizzlies-preview-into-theSteve Perrin2013-04-24T13:30:07-07:002013-04-24T13:30:07-07:00NBA Playoffs history lesson -- What are the odds?
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/OYKQ3xmRNI9HEjxj0FSr7XXdJlw=/0x154:4000x2821/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/12086585/20130422_ajl_aj4_357.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Clippers 2-0 lead over the Grizzlies in their NBA Playoff series puts the Clippers in an advantageous position. Very advantageous, according to NBA playoff history.</p> <p>The <a href="https://www.clipsnation.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Los Angeles Clippers</a> hold a 2-0 lead in the best of seven first round series against the <a href="https://www.grizzlybearblues.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Memphis Grizzlies</a>. That's obviously good news for the Clippers and greatly increases their odds of winning the series. But by the same token, the Grizzlies will certainly point out that all the Clippers have done so far is hold serve, that Memphis only has to steal one game in STAPLES Center to win the series, that they could have two more chances to do just that. It all begs the question, just how likely are the Clippers to win this thing at this point?</p>
<p>From a purely probabilistic standpoint, the website <a target="_blank" href="http://www.playoffstatus.com/nba/nbapostseasonprob.html">PlayoffStatus.com</a> sets the odds of the Clippers advancing to the second round given their 2-0 lead at 81%. According to the site, "all future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths." In other words, based on factors like won/loss record, margin of victory and the like, the site is doing a pure probability calculation that the Grizzlies will win four straight or four out of five against the Clippers. That probability turns out to be 19%, leaving the Clippers with an 81% likelihood of advancing.</p>
<p>Pretty good right? But what does NBA history tell us about this situation?</p>
<p>It turns out that NBA history tells us that these probabilities are too conservative. According to the encyclopedic website <a href="http://www.whowins.com/2013series/nba2013h.html">WhoWins.com</a>, which tracks the results of seven game series across every major sport in every conceivable situation, teams leading 2-0 in a seven game series have a .890 winning percentage across all sports (573-71). The winning percentage is even higher in the NBA, where teams up 2-0 have won 233 times, losing just 15 times. This .940 winning percentage is identical for all rounds of the playoffs and for the first round, where teams up 2-0 have gone 47-3.</p>
<p>Surely though you say, the record is not so one-sided when both of the wins occurred at home. After all, we always here that a series doesn't really start until the home team loses, and all the Clippers have done so far is win their home games. As it happens, the results are even MORE lopsided when the first two games are home wins. Teams in the Clippers' situation, up 2-0 after two home games, have a 201-12 (.944) record in all NBA playoff series and a 46-2 record in the first round (.958). While this may seem counter-intuitive at first, bear in mind that the team that hosts the first two games is by definition the team with the better record (or at least the team that won a tie-breaker) so there are factors dictating their victory in the series that go beyond the mere fact that they lead 2-0. The Clippers-Grizzlies series -- pitting two teams with identical regular season records against each other -- is somewhat unique, so clearly the Grizzlies' odds will be better than the general data set. For instance, Miami's 2-0 lead over Milwaukee is a very different situation than L.A.'s 2-0 lead over Memphis.</p>
<p>Continuing the history lesson, let's go back to 2006, to the only other time the Clippers had home court advantage in the NBA Playoffs. That season, the Clippers opened with two victories in STAPLES Center over the <a href="https://www.denverstiffs.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Denver Nuggets</a>. In both the 2006 series and this year, the Clippers opening victories included a two point win and a double digit win. In an even stranger coincidence, the opponent scored the same number of points in both games of the two series (Denver lost 89-87, 98-87 while Memphis lost 112-91, 93-91). In 2006 the Nuggets managed to win Game 3 but the Clippers won the next two to close the series out in five games.</p>
<p>Speaking of Game 3, although NBA history overwhelming favors the team up 2-0 in the series, Game 3 is usually won by the home team. In NBA history, the visiting team is 229-273 (.456) despite being up 2-0 in the series.</p>
<p>And what does <a target="_blank" href="http://www.playoffstatus.com/nba/nbapostseasonprob.html">PlayoffStatus.com</a> say about the Clippers odds going forward? Well, the site gives the Clippers a 33% chance of advancing to the Western Conference Finals, a 16% chance of winning the conference and advancing to the NBA Finals, and a 6% chance of winning it all. Bear in mind that these odds are cumulative. The probability of getting heads when you flip is coin is 50% -- the probability of getting heads twice in a row is 25%. But the probability of getting heads a second time after getting heads the first time is still 50%. Which means that the 33% chance the Clippers have of advancing to the Conference Finals takes into consideration the 19% chance that they won't get out of the first round. A little reverse engineering of these probabilities shows that the Clippers actually have a 41% chance of winning in the second round, a 49% chance of winning in the conference finals and a 38% chance of winning in the Finals -- assuming they advance to those rounds. I'll take that.</p>
https://www.clipsnation.com/2013/4/24/4262206/nba-playoff-history-lesson-clippers-grizzlies-what-are-the-oddsSteve Perrin2013-04-19T19:56:39-07:002013-04-19T19:56:39-07:00Clippers-Grizzlies Series Preview
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/fTHYV8n4JwvRJ4XBNq-q5ERHTwQ=/0x295:3165x2405/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/11826917/20121031_gav_sv5_031.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Gary A. Vasquez-US PRESSWIRE</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Clippers and Grizzlies played the most entertaining series of the 2012 NBA Playoffs and it's time to do it again.</p> <table align="center" cellpadding="5" border="1" cellspacing="5" class="sbnu-legacy-content-table"><tbody>
<tr>
<th bgcolor="silver" colspan="3" align="center">2013 NBA Playoffs<br>First Round</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="240"><center><img src="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/472353/bvv028jd1hhr8ee8ii7a0fg4i_medium.gif" alt="Bvv028jd1hhr8ee8ii7a0fg4i_medium"></center></td>
<th width="20" align="center">vs</th>
<td width="240"><center> <a target="_blank" href="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/502994/793.gif"><img src="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/502994/793_medium.gif" class="photo" alt="793_medium"></a> <br id="1351645292796">
</center></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="240"><center><b>56-26</b></center></td>
<th width="20" align="center"><br></th>
<td width="240"><center><b>56-26</b></center></td>
</tr>
<tr></tr>
<tr>
<th bgcolor="silver" colspan="3" align="center">Series Schedule<br>
</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="3" align="center"><b>Game 1 - Sat April 20, 7:30 p.m., Los Angeles, STAPLES Center</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="3" align="center"><b>Game 2 - Mon April 22, 7:30 p.m., Los Angeles, STAPLES Center</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="3" align="center"><b>Game 3 - Thu April 25, 6:30 p.m., Memphis, FedEx Forum</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="3" align="center"><b>Game 4 - Sat April 27, 1:30 p.m., Memphis, FedEx Forum</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="3" align="center"><b>Game 5 Tue April 30, Time 7:30 p.m., Los Angeles, STAPLES Center</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="3" align="center"><b>Game 6 Fri May 3, Time TBD, Memphis, FedEx Forum</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="3" align="center"><b>Game 7 * Sun May 5, Time TBD, Los Angeles, STAPLES Center</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="3" align="center">* if necessary</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="3" align="center"><a href="http://www.tiqiq.com/nba/los-angeles-clippers-tickets?pubid=1011034" target="_blank"><b>Buy Clippers Tickets</b></a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th bgcolor="silver" colspan="3" align="center"><b>Probable Starters</b></th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="240" align="right"><b><span>Chris Paul</span></b></td>
<th width="20" align="center">PG</th>
<td width="240"><b><span>Mike Conley</span></b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="240" align="right"><b><span>Chauncey Billups</span></b></td>
<th width="20" align="center">SG</th>
<td width="240"><b><span>Tony Allen</span></b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="240" align="right"><b><span>Caron Butler</span></b></td>
<th width="20" align="center">SF</th>
<td width="240"><b><span>Tayshaun Prince</span></b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="240" align="right"><span><b>Blake Griffin</b></span></td>
<th width="20" align="center">PF</th>
<td width="240"><b><span>Zach Randolph</span></b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="240" align="right"><span><b>DeAndre Jordan</b></span></td>
<th width="20" align="center">C</th>
<td width="240"><b><span>Marc Gasol</span></b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th bgcolor="silver" colspan="3" align="center"><b>Key Reserves</b></th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="240" align="right"><b><span>Eric Bledsoe</span></b></td>
<th width="20" align="center">PG</th>
<td width="240"><b><span>Keyon Dooling</span></b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="240" align="right"><b><span>Jamal Crawford</span></b></td>
<th width="20" align="center">SG</th>
<td width="240"><b><span>Jerryd Bayless</span></b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="240" align="right"><b><span>Matt Barnes</span></b></td>
<th width="20" align="center">SF</th>
<td width="240"><b><span>Quincy Pondexter</span></b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="240" align="right"><b><span>Lamar Odom</span></b></td>
<th width="20" align="center">PF</th>
<td width="240"><b><span>Darrell Arthur</span></b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="240" align="right"><b><span>Ryan Hollins</span></b></td>
<th width="20" align="center">C</th>
<td width="240"><b><span>Ed Davis</span></b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th bgcolor="silver" colspan="3" align="center"><b>Advanced Stats 2012-2013 Regular Season</b></th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="240" align="right"><b style="text-align: start; ">91.1 (19th of 30)</b></td>
<th width="20" align="center">Pace</th>
<td width="240"><b>88.4 (30th of 30)</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="240" align="right"><b style="text-align: start; ">110.6 (4th of 30)</b></td>
<th width="20" align="center">ORtg</th>
<td width="240"><b>104.9 (17th of 30)</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="240" align="right"><b style="text-align: start; ">103.6 (8th of 30)</b></td>
<th width="20" align="center">DRtg</th>
<td width="240"><b>100.3 (2nd of 30)</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th colspan="3" height="20" bgcolor="silver"></th>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p> </p>
<p><b>The Back Story:</b></p>
<p>-- October 31, 2012 in Los Angeles | <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.clipsnation.com/">Clippers</a> 101, <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.grizzlybearblues.com/">Grizzlies</a> 92 | <a href="http://www.clipsnation.com/2012/10/31/3584398/clippers-final-score-l-a-still-owns-memphis-101-92" target="_blank"><b>Recap</b></a> |<b> <a href="http://www.nba.com/games/20121031/MEMLAC/gameinfo.html#nbaGIboxscore" target="_blank">Box Score</a></b></p>
<p>-- January 14, 2013 in Memphis | Clippers 99, Grizzlies 73 | <a href="http://www.clipsnation.com/2013/1/14/3877926/clippers-dont-need-paul-to-trounce-grizzlies-99-73" target="_blank"><b>Recap</b></a> | <a href="http://www.nba.com/games/20130114/LACMEM/gameinfo.html#nbaGIboxscore" target="_blank"><b>Box Score</b></a></p>
<p>-- March 13, 2013 in Los Angeles | Grizzlies 96, Clippers 85 | <a target="_blank" href="http://www.clipsnation.com/2013/3/13/4102472/clippers-lose-a-big-one-to-grizzlies-96-85"><b>Recap</b></a> | <a target="_blank" href="http://www.nba.com/games/20130313/MEMLAC/gameinfo.html#nbaGIboxscore"><b>Box Score</b></a></p>
<p>-- April 13, 2013 in Memphis | Clippers 91, Grizzlies 87 | <a href="http://www.clipsnation.com/2013/4/13/4222392/clippers-stop-grizzlies-91-87-take-control-of-home-court-race" target="_blank"><b>Recap</b></a> | <b><a href="http://www.nba.com/games/20130413/LACMEM/gameinfo.html#nbaGIboxscore" target="_blank">Box Score</a></b></p>
<p><b>The Big Picture:</b></p>
<p>For the first time in franchise history, the Clippers earned a top four seed in the NBA playoffs. Their reward is a team that won just as many as they did, the 56 win Memphis Grizzlies. The Clippers and Grizzlies met in the most competitive and entertaining series of the 2012 NBA playoffs -- so good news everybody, here we go again. The Clippers beat the Grizzlies in seven games last season, winning Game 1 with a massive comeback from 27 points down and winning Game 7 in Memphis. The Clippers also won the season series this year three games to one. So you have to like the Clippers chances in the series this year, especially with home court advantage.</p>
<p><b>The Antagonist:</b></p>
<p>The Grizzlies have the second highest rated defense in the NBA, and they may be even better defensively now than they were over the course of the season with the addition of Tayshaun Prince to the roster. Memphis may have the best starting bigs in the NBA in Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, and they also have four potential All Defense team candidates in Gasol, Tony Allen, Mike Conley and Prince. They're a great defensive team with a great starting lineup, but they are not without their flaws. They can struggle to score in their half court offense, and have the lowest offensive efficiency of any Western Conference playoff team. Nor are they the deepest team in the league. But that defense is capable of winning games almost on its own, and they'll give the Clippers everything they can handle.</p>
<p><b>The Subplots</b></p>
<ul>
<li> <b>Comparison of key metrics.</b><span style="line-height: 9.75px;"> </span>The Grizzlies have the best defensive efficiency in the West, second best in the league. They also have the third worst offensive efficiency in the Western Conference and by far the worst among the eight West teams in the postseason. They are the only West team with an offensive efficiency below the league average. By contrast the Clippers are fourth in the league in offensive efficiency and eighth in defensive efficiency, a much better balance of offense and defense.</li>
<li> <b>The Questionable Blogger.</b> Be sure to check out the Q&A's between <a target="_blank" href="http://www.grizzlybearblues.com/2013/4/19/4242644/nba-playoff-preview-q-a-with-steve-perrin-of-clips-nation">myself</a> and <a target="_blank" href="http://www.clipsnation.com/2013/4/19/4243186/nba-playoffs-the-questionable-blogger-with-kevin-lipe-of-grizzly-bear">Kevin Lipe</a> of SBNation's Memphis blog, <a target="_blank" href="http://www.grizzlybearblues.com/">Grizzly Bear Blues</a>.</li>
<li> <b>Linked franchises.</b> The Clippers and Grizzlies seem somehow linked. For one thing, they are two of the least successful franchises in NBA history -- who are trying to change their fortunes in recent seasons of relative success. Both set franchise records for wins this season with identical 56-26 records. Not only that, they were both 32-9 at home and 24-17 on the road. The Clippers previous best season was 49 wins; for the Grizzlies it was 50 wins. The Grizzlies have only won one playoff series in franchise history; the Clippers have won two series since moving to California, the second one being last season over the Grizzlies. The last two times the Clippers' made the playoffs the Grizzlies played a significant role -- in 2006, the Clippers had to tank in order to finish behind the Grizzlies so that they could host a first round series against the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.denverstiffs.com/">Nuggets</a> in a playoff seeding loophole. Last year the teams met in the 4-5 matchup. </li>
<li> <b>Injury watch.</b> Ostensibly both teams enter the post season completely healthy. They each had all their players available in their final games this season. But that doesn't mean there are no injury concerns. Although Marc Gasol is showing no ill affects of the injury, it wasn't that long ago that he was out of the lineup with a torn abdominal muscle. It's hard to imagine that injury isn't still at least painful. Chauncey Billups has missed most of his season with the Clippers with various issues. He began the season still rehabbing his ruptured Achilles tendon and after he returned had trouble staying on the court, suffering other minor injuries. Those injuries were not directly related to the Achilles, but may have resulted from Billups compensating while the Achilles continued to heal. Finally, there's Blake Griffin, who was playing with back spasms Wednesday night. It's great to be 24, because there's no way I could play with back spasms, not to mention that I'd be out of action for a month. Griffin played through it and may well be fine by the start of the series on Saturday, but it's a situation to watch.</li>
<li> <b>Sequel to a blockbuster.</b> Clippers-Grizzlies in the first round last year was the best series of the entire 2012 NBA playoffs -- and it's not just Clippers fans who think that. The series went seven games with the Clippers winning the decisive game on the road. Six of the seven games were within single digits, with the first two games decided by a single point and the third going to overtime. And of course there was that incredible come back from 27 points down by the Clippers in game 1, one of the great comebacks in NBA history. NBA fans should be thrilled with the prospect of another series between these two teams -- if it's half the series it was last year, it will still be the best series of the first round.</li>
<li> <b>CP3 injury free.</b> If you'll recall, Chris Paul missed the final two games of the regular season last year with a groin injury. He went into the postseason clearly less than 100% and proceeded to get dinged up further by the physical Grizzlies defense. In contrast, Paul is as healthy this season as anyone can expect to be at the conclusion of the regular season. Paul's PER in last season's playoffs was 20 -- fine, but not great. In the two postseasons of his career where he was fully healthy, his PER has been around 30. That's a big difference.</li>
<li> <b>Close games.</b> Grizzlies are 7-5 in games decided by three or fewer points or in overtime. The Clippers are 3-7 in such games. This is a good news/bad news thing for the Clippers. All those close losses explain why the Clippers have a much better point differential than the Grizzlies (+6.5 to +4.1), but finished with same record. Scoring margin has historically proven to be a reliable predictor of post season success, which is why computer models like those of Kevin Pelton and John Hollinger prefer the Clippers pretty decidedly. However, if we expect close games in the series, does that favor the Grizzlies, who have been much better in those games this season than the Clippers? The good news is that in a close game in Memphis late in the season, the Clippers prevailed, winning by four.</li>
<li> <b>The eight game series.</b> When these teams met in Memphis in the 80th game of the season, everyone knew headed into the game that it was likely for home court advantage. Indeed, the Clippers won that game, and with it secured the home court for this series. That game, which was essentially the first game in an eight game series, featured playoff intensity with a lot on the line -- the fact that the Clippers won that game in Memphis bodes well for them now.</li>
<li> <b>Battle of attrition.</b> In Game 2 of their series last year, the Clippers played most of the last quarter with Caron Butler, <span>Mo Williams</span>, Eric Bledsoe and <span>Nick Young</span> on the bench nursing injuries they sustained in the series. Paul and Griffin were both injured during the series as well. The Grizzlies are arguably the most physical team in the league, and it took a toll last year. Paul, Griffin, Butler and Williams were all still less than 100% when the Clippers went into the second round against San Antonio. The challenge for the Clippers this year is therefore two fold -- win the series, and also avoid injury.</li>
<li> <b>The new Grizzlies.</b> The Grizzlies have a new starter and a new sixth man this year as opposed to last year. Prior to the trade deadline, Memphis pulled off a blockbuster trade that sent <span>Rudy Gay</span>, their second leading scorer and best perimeter scorer, to Toronto while bringing in Tayshaun Prince and Ed Davis. Prince stepped into Gay's starting small forward spot and Davis is a key front court reserve. The Grizzlies also allowed sixth man <span>O.J. Mayo</span> to leave and replaced him with free agent Jerryd Bayless over the summer. Bayless scored less than Mayo during the regular season, but has picked it up in the last couple of months. Coincidentally, Bayless' true shooting percentage this year (.513) is almost identical to Mayo's last year (.514). Are the Grizzlies better or worse for these changes? Losing Gay makes their identity even more clear -- Prince is a better defender, and he leaves more shots for Randolph and Gasol inside. Bayless for Mayo may be a wash -- though it seems pretty clear that Mayo had a higher ceiling.</li>
<li> <b>Playoff experience.</b> When the Clippers and Grizzlies met last year, the Clippers featured three starters (Griffin, Jordan and <span>Randy Foye</span>) and a key reserve (Eric Bledsoe) who had never played in a playoff game. This season, not only do Griffin and Jordan and Bledsoe have 11 playoff games from last season under their belt, but they've also got a healthy Chauncey Billups and new additions Lamar Odom, Matt Barnes, <span>Grant Hill</span> and <span>Ronny Turiaf</span> all have significant postseason experience. On the other hand, Billups old <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.detroitbadboys.com/">Pistons</a> pal Tayshaun Prince brings vast additional playoff experience to the Grizzlies as well.</li>
<li> <b style="font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px;">Turnovers and offensive rebounds.</b><span style="font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px;">The Grizzlies are the second best offensive rebounding team in the league and second at forcing turnovers. Their halfcourt offense can be brutally bad at times, but if they generate easy scores off putbacks and turnovers then it matters less how bad they are in the halfcourt. The Clippers must -- MUST -- keep their turnovers low and keep the Grizzlies off the O-glass. I can't stress this enough -- take care of the ball and BOX OUT!</span> </li>
<li> <b>Tayshaun and Caron.</b> It's worth recalling that in the 2011 off-season, the Clippers had cap space and were shopping for a small forward. Butler and Prince were the leading candidates, and Prince decided to stay in Detroit while the Clippers opted for Butler. Butler has been terrific as a Clipper, scoring consistently, playing defense, filling his role well. But one can't help but wonder if Prince might not have been a better fit, especially as a wing defender.</li>
<li> <b>Bench strength.</b> These are both strong teams, but there's little question that the Clippers enjoy a distinct advantage off the bench (at least with Bledsoe and a productive Crawford). The Clippers are first in the league in minutes played from reserves and third in bench scoring. The Grizzlies on the other hand are 27th in both minutes and scoring. </li>
<li> <b>Mike Conley.</b> Mike Conley is quietly putting together an outstanding season in Memphis. When the Grizzlies gave him a $40M contract extension a few years back it raised quite a few eyebrows, but he's looking like a bargain at this point. He's a terrific defender and is third in the league in steals per game, but has really improved on offense. He is averaging a career high in scoring, while also putting up career-best shooting numbers. He has also proven to be clutch, hitting big baskets in close games several times this season.</li>
<li> <b>Three point shooting.</b> The Clippers have of course had difficulty defending the three point line this season. The Grizzlies though are dead last in the NBA in three pointers attempted and made, so it likely won't be a major concern tonight. Since the trades, they take even fewer threes since Gay and Ellington were two of their only three point threats. Prince will take a corner three, Bayless isn't afraid to shoot the long ball and Pondexter is hitting better than .395, mostly from the corner. But this is a team that simply doesn't use the three point line as a weapon, which is probably good news for the Clippers since their strength tends to be defending the interior.</li>
<li> <b>No love lost.</b> These teams don't like each other. Hard fought seven game playoff series will do that to teams, not to mention regular season games laden with playoff implications. Randolph in particular seems to have a real beef with Blake Griffin and will take every opportunity to rough him up. How the Clippers handle the Grizzlies physical nature -- and perhaps more importantly, how the refs call the series -- will be a big factor. If the refs allow a lot of pushing and shoving, then advantage Memphis. Either way, expect plenty of physical play and some tempers. Flagrants, technicals, hard fouls, double fouls -- last year's series had them all, and expect nothing less this season.</li>
<li> <b>Out-grizzling the Grizzlies.</b> The Grizzlies made their defensive reputation last season by coming up with steals and forcing turnovers, leading the league in both of those categories. However it is the Clippers who lead the league in both steals and forced turnovers this season. So the team that does a better job of protecting the ball in the series will be at a major advantage.</li>
<li> <b>Turnovers.</b> This season's Clippers have flip-flopped on turnovers on both sides of the ball. Last year they had the second lowest turnover percentage on offense, but were middle of the pack at forcing turnovers. This season, the lead the league at forcing turnovers on defense, but are below average at protecting the ball. Playing at a faster pace and resting Paul more (in favor of the turnover prone Bledsoe) are definitely factors in turning the ball over, but the Clippers would be wise to do a better job protecting the ball, both against the Grizzlies and in the playoffs if they want to win. Memphis thrives on turnovers, and one way the Clippers beat them in the playoffs last season was by taking care of the ball and depriving the Grizzlies of easy baskets.</li>
<li> <b>Predictions.</b> Most publications have the Clippers winning the series. A compendium of various previews can be found <a target="_blank" href="http://www.clipsnation.com/2013/4/19/4243040/2013-playoff-preview-and-predictions-los-angeles-clippers-vs-memphis">here</a>. Myself, I'm going with the Clippers in six games.</li>
<li> <b>Connections.</b> Zach Randolph is a former Clipper who they traded to Memphis to make room for Blake Griffin after winning the lottery and making Griffin the first overall pick in the 2009 draft. Keyon Dooling, who came out of retirement to sign with the Grizzlies a couple weeks ago and immediately became their backup point guard, began his 13 year NBA career as a Clipper. Prince and Billups were teammates for over six seasons in Detroit and won an NBA title together. Grizzlies coach <span>Lionel Hollins</span> and assistant coach <span>Henry Bibby</span> each played for the San Diego Clippers in the early 80s.</li>
<li><b>Get the Memphis perspective at <a href="http://www.grizzlybearblues.com/" target="_blank">Grizzly Bear Blues</a>.</b></li>
</ul>
https://www.clipsnation.com/2013/4/19/4240440/2013-nba-playoffs-first-round-clippers-grizzlies-series-previewSteve Perrin